2014 Municipal Election: Toronto Mayoral Race

[kEiThZ]

How about likely voters?

Heard on radio this morning that Tory was polling higher among likely voters.

 

[PinkLucy]

To get back to the overall Mayoral race

The latest mainstreet numbers on decided voters are Tory 43%v, Ford 32%^, Chow 24%^, and other 3%. That's a total of 102%, that's some odd Ford math there

Rounding upwards

 

[Ramako]

Most Chow supporters are desperate to paint Tory as some "wolf in sheep's clothing" right-wing nut. They are going all out to equate Tory and Ford. That's the new talking point. You see it everywhere from Chow supporters.

The NDP honed this tactic at the federal level where they routinely equate the Liberals with the Conservatives.

Not too many people will fall for it. And it only makes Chow and her supporters look more desperate and hysterical.

Indeed. I myself tend to vote Liberal (and have voted both Conservative and NDP in the past), and would consider myself centre left generally. From a purely policy perspective Tory most closely aligns with my beliefs, so the more rhetoric I hear about Tory being hard right-wing, the more I'm coming to learn that the left in Toronto is actually much farther left than I'd initially realized. That makes me somewhat wary of a Chow mayoralty insofar as I believe that dramatic political swings from right to left or vice-versa are bad for civil society and create paralyzing and even destructive levels of divisiveness.

I think Tory will be the non-Ford candidate most likely to successfully disarm and diffuse the divisions propagated by the Fords, whereas with a Chow mayoralty I think Ford Nation is more likely to re-group and attempt to take power again in 2018.

 

[ehlow]

Most Chow supporters are desperate to paint Tory as some "wolf in sheep's clothing" right-wing nut. They are going all out to equate Tory and Ford. That's the new talking point. You see it everywhere from Chow supporters.

The NDP honed this tactic at the federal level where they routinely equate the Liberals with the Conservatives.

Not too many people will fall for it. And it only makes Chow and her supporters look more desperate and hysterical.

Indeed. I myself tend to vote Liberal (and have voted both Conservative and NDP in the past), and would consider myself centre left generally. From a purely policy perspective Tory most closely aligns with my beliefs, so the more rhetoric I hear about Tory being hard right-wing, the more I'm coming to learn that the left in Toronto is actually much farther left than I'd initially realized. That makes me somewhat wary of a Chow mayoralty insofar as I believe that dramatic political swings from right to left or vice-versa are bad for civil society and create paralyzing and even destructive levels of divisiveness.

I think Tory will be the non-Ford candidate most likely to successfully disarm and diffuse the divisions propagated by the Fords, whereas with a Chow mayoralty I think Ford Nation is more likely to re-group and attempt to take power again in 2018.

I agree with you two, Chow supporters seem to love to say that Tory is the same as Ford, or that Chow is the only "progressive" candidate and the other two are extreme right wing.

I don't see it that way, and I don't consider myself right wing or conservative, yet I like Tory.

Chow supporters also seem shocked & unwilling to believe that others like Tory. For example, people react with shock & surprise that there are lots of Tory signs in downtown neighbourhoods. Many polls show Tory with very strong support downtown.

My impression is that many Chow supporters likely over-estimate the number of Tory voters who are voting "strategically" as "anybody but Ford", because they seem unwilling to believe that many voters actually prefer Tory over Chow.

 

[StatGeek]

How about likely voters?

I've always hated likely voter polls. Too much guess work on who likely to vote. Also give way too much balance to "over motivated" voters for a particular candidate. Remember Hudak was winning all the "likely" voters. I find intensity to be a bit overrated. The person who plug their nose and vote for Tory vote counts just as much as a over-the-top freaky Ford voter.

If you are interested They had "Certain" voters in Mainstream as Tory 42%, Ford 25%, and Chow 22%

Full mainstreet poll The age breakdown is strange. Everybody below 50 years old is supporting Ford over the other two?

 

[Greg Banks]

To get back to the overall Mayoral race

The latest mainstreet numbers on decided voters are Tory 43%v, Ford 32%^, Chow 24%^, and other 3%. That's a total of 102%, that's some odd Ford math there

Forum has decided voters as, Tory 44%^, Ford 33%v, Chow 23%^, and other 4 %

I personally give a total so far of Tory 44, Ford 30, Chow 24, and other/Goldkind 2%

And mine look something this over the last month
Tory...today 35.75%...last week 37.74%...two weeks ago 39.11%...three weeks ago 40.72%
Ford...today 30.64%...last week 35.76%...two weeks ago 34.13%...three weeks ago 31.64%
Chow today 24.32%...last week 26.49%...two weeks ago 26.76%...three weeks ago 27.65%

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I've always hated likely voter polls. Too much guess work on who likely to vote. Also give way too much balance to "over motivated" voters for a particular candidate. Remember Hudak was winning all the "likely" voters. I find intensity to be a bit overrated. The person who plug their nose and vote for Tory vote counts just as much as a over-the-top freaky Ford voter.

If you are interested They had "Certain" voters in Mainstream as Tory 42%, Ford 25%, and Chow 22%

Full mainstreet poll The age breakdown is strange. Everybody below 50 years old is supporting Ford over the other two?

Well the Forum polls also has Ford with stronger support amongst the 18-34 demographic. But I have a hard time believing that he has such strong support amongst 35 to 49.

 

[nfitz]

Indeed they would, which is why $100k is reasonable. But day care demands an acute spike in cash flow while the kids are young. Putting aside ~$400 a month into an RESP in a relatively moderate risk portfolio from age 3 onwards, would give any child more than enough for post-secondary (accumulate around $100k by their 18th birthday).

Uh ... RESP contribution is limited to $2,500 a year. You can't put in $400 a month ... unless you are behind.

Evidence? Or is this just more slanderous conjecture?

I provided evidence. Which part of my evidence to you have issue with? Your assumption that you need $100K assumes that you only have $60K after tax. The example I gave, the couple who earn $60K, still has $51K after tax. We're arguing about less than $9K in spending money. Ditch the car and that's about $4K (about $2K depreciation/year, $1K insurance, and $1K registration/gas/repars ... probably more).

Despite having spent most of my childhood overseas sharing a room with my younger brother, I should think I understand that having your own room as a child is a Canadian norm. More so for teenagers.

If your parents only earn $30K each! Canadians live incredibly luxuriously compared to most people. We said comfortable.

The rest of us don't share your view about John Tory being a "right-wing conservative". We see a rather moderate centre-right candidate. And no amount hysterics is going to really change that point of view.

Your speaking for everyone now? They guy is so utterly right-wing that he endorsed and funded Rob Ford after we knew about the wife-beating, racism, and alcohol problems. That's not centre-right. Centre-right conservatives don't join golf clubs that ban non-whites ... let alone Jews!

So you bought a car and you barely use it? So why do you have it? Clearly, you could be "comfortable" without it.

Yes, I absolutely could. But I can easily afford it.

Could it be that you consider owning a vehicle a rather reasonable proposition for a middle class family?

Who said I'm middle class?

Anyway, listen, I can't argue with your personal experience, but in my personal experience I'd bet that most people in... probably the entire First World, would consider your view on this completely out of touch. We'll just have to agree to disagree.

Because I believe the cut-off is less than $100K? In that poll above, 24% said $75K and 7% said $60K. That's 31% that agree with me that it's less than $100K. That suggests to me I'm not off the deep end.

 

[DarnDirtyApe]

That suggests to me I'm not off the deep end.

Hmm...

 

[kEiThZ]

Uh ... RESP contribution is limited to $2,500 a year. You can't put in $400 a month ... unless you are behind.

I provided evidence. Which part of my evidence to you have issue with? Your assumption that you need $100K assumes that you only have $60K after tax. The example I gave, the couple who earn $60K, still has $51K after tax. We're arguing about less than $9K in spending money. Ditch the car and that's about $4K (about $2K depreciation/year, $1K insurance, and $1K registration/gas/repars ... probably more).


If your parents only earn $30K each! Canadians live incredibly luxuriously compared to most people. We said comfortable.

Your speaking for everyone now? They guy is so utterly right-wing that he endorsed and funded Rob Ford after we knew about the wife-beating, racism, and alcohol problems. That's not centre-right. Centre-right conservatives don't join golf clubs that ban non-whites ... let alone Jews!

Yes, I absolutely could. But I can easily afford it.

Who said I'm middle class?

Because I believe the cut-off is less than $100K? In that poll above, 24% said $75K and 7% said $60K. That's 31% that agree with me that it's less than $100K. That suggests to me I'm not off the deep end.

Off the deep-end? No. But firmly in the minority on this question. So clearly your definition of "comfortable" would not line up with 69% of people in this city.

More to the topic at hand, what does it say about Chow that only 7% of those polled agreed with her answer?

 

[nfitz]

Hmm...

On that particular point about not being able to live comfortably in Toronto below $100K.

I went over the deep end with the right-wing during the 2010 election, and am still there. I don't deny it.

 

[Greg Banks]

Because I believe the cut-off is less than $100K? In that poll above, 24% said $75K and 7% said $60K. That's 31% that agree with me that it's less than $100K. That suggests to me I'm not off the deep end.[/QUOTE]

From Statcan median total family income (all census families) Toronto census area $71,210 in 2012...

 

[kEiThZ]

I think Tory will be the non-Ford candidate most likely to successfully disarm and diffuse the divisions propagated by the Fords, whereas with a Chow mayoralty I think Ford Nation is more likely to re-group and attempt to take power again in 2018.

Fully agree. I think it was the perception that Miller was too far to the left that bolstered the Fords in the first place. Highly unlikely that anybody could make that anybody would make that suggestion about Tory, even if he does have to raise taxes (say for Smart Track).

I find it unusual that so many Chow supporters really believed that Toronto would take a hard left turn after spending four years under a disastrous populist hard right mayoralty. I honestly believe that if Chow wins, there'll be some severe battles with the right on council, only to reignite the Fords (or some other populist right winger) in 4 years.

 

[nfitz]

From Statcan median total family income (all census families) Toronto census area $71,210 in 2012...

To be fair though, doesn't census families include 1-person families, and certainly 2-person families?

 

[kEiThZ]

From Statcan median total family income (all census families) Toronto census area $71,210 in 2012...

Median family incomes for downtown Toronto are much higher, which would also belie this idea of living comfortably on family incomes that are 40% below average (for the core) or 15% below regional average.

If nfitz and Chow are correct, then I'm wondering why the hubub about poverty? Clearly the vast majority of Toronto's population is living comfortably.