2014 Municipal Election: Toronto Mayoral Race

[evvabeing]

granted, people have argued the credibilty of the source, but he has gained ground...

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/60/rob-ford-approval-continues-to-drop-060814

 

[evvabeing]

Flip Side: Polling and media coverage in the Toronto election
Who's influencing who?

http://o.canada.com/news/flip-side-polling-and-media-coverage-in-the-toronto-election

 

[evvabeing]

granted, people have argued the credibilty of the source, but he has gained ground...

View attachment 30751

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/60/rob-ford-approval-continues-to-drop-060814

how did i forget about this???

http://www.poletical.com/toronto-yyz-municipal-election-2014-poll.php

Through the months of May and June, Poletical's non-scientific online poll placed Olivia Chow in front with 38% and Tory, Soknacki and Ford in a tight race for second place. As with the Ontario general election, polls carried out by reputable polling firms have proven to be as incapable of predicting the outcome of an election as any non-scientific poll.

Poletical will continue to track the Toronto municipal election as honestly and accurately as possible, using different methods to weigh votes received exclusively from Toronto IP addresses. This poll will extend beyond regular Poletical readers and reach people of all ages and political stripes via social media. Only votes from Toronto IP addresses will be counted and any votes from outside Toronto or from "unknown" locations will be discarded.

If you live in Toronto and plan to vote in October, please participate in the poll. Only one vote per IP address will be counted. Results will be published in September.

http://www.poletical.com/toronto-election-race-2014.php

 

[Silence&Motion]

how did i forget about this???
http://www.poletical.com/toronto-yyz-municipal-election-2014-poll.php

As much as I would like it to be, that's not a legitimate poll.

Also, I'm not sure where people are getting this idea that Chow didn't really want to run. She's been positioning herself for a mayoral run for years. All those press conferences she gave about transportation, or cycling, or the Lucky Moose incident - they were only superficially given as an opposition critic and local MP. They were really early campaign speeches for the mayor's race. If anything it was Tory who was hesitant to get into the game.

 

[Riverdale Rink Rat]

As much as I would like it to be, that's not a legitimate poll.

Also, I'm not sure where people are getting this idea that Chow didn't really want to run. She's been positioning herself for a mayoral run for years. All those press conferences she gave about transportation, or cycling, or the Lucky Moose incident - they were only superficially given as an opposition critic and local MP. They were really early campaign speeches for the mayor's race. If anything it was Tory who was hesitant to get into the game.

IMHO, Chow detractors at the moment are wishing for a more dramatic speaker, and nothing else. The number of 'she's underwhelming' comments, without specifying any kind of policy issue... but, in this city, that seems to be how people vote. Thus, Ford. Ack.

 

[evvabeing]

As much as I would like it to be, that's not a legitimate poll.

Also, I'm not sure where people are getting this idea that Chow didn't really want to run. She's been positioning herself for a mayoral run for years. All those press conferences she gave about transportation, or cycling, or the Lucky Moose incident - they were only superficially given as an opposition critic and local MP. They were really early campaign speeches for the mayor's race. If anything it was Tory who was hesitant to get into the game.

it is a non-scientific poll, but i would not say it's illegitimate. they are trying to keep the data 'clean'...

Poletical will continue to track the Toronto municipal election as honestly and accurately as possible, using different methods to weigh votes received exclusively from Toronto IP addresses. This poll will extend beyond regular Poletical readers and reach people of all ages and political stripes via social media. Only votes from Toronto IP addresses will be counted and any votes from outside Toronto or from "unknown" locations will be discarded.

i think it's fair to keep this poll in mind to balance out the landline only polls, you know?

 

[expat]

granted, this is sort of a hypothetical, but how does everyone think the numbers would look if ford was out of the race? let's just say something crazy happens and he's arrested tomorrow, or taken to hospital, or whatever - he's off the ballot in october.

do his supporters shift, or just stay home? does chow benefit from a fractured right, or does the chaos give the 'statemanlike' tory an edge? or does this redraw the lines completely and allow someone like soks - who's never been tactical, but just campaigned on ideas - to soldier on to the win?

thoughts?

 

[Videodrome]

Someone on here said that the most loyal of Ford Nation just wouldn't vote if he wasn't an option.

 

[evvabeing]

Someone on here said that the most loyal of Ford Nation just wouldn't vote if he wasn't an option.

that would be fine. it would just bump all the other candidates' % of the vote a little higher. e.g. if ford nation is 20%, removing them means someone at 5% would be at almost 7%... 28% becomes 35%, etc.

 

[adma]

However, in case RoFo's out of the race, don't discount the possibility of a spokesperson like DoFo doing the eliminated-leadership-candidate thing and "endorsing", say, John Tory...

 

[Silence&Motion]

it is a non-scientific poll, but i would not say it's illegitimate. they are trying to keep the data 'clean'...



i think it's fair to keep this poll in mind to balance out the landline only polls, you know?

How exactly did they get participants?

 

[evvabeing]

How exactly did they get participants?

that's a good question. i don't know how it's promoted. and it's not past tense... they are taking poll answers this month too.

i think there's a good chance that each candidate's % is somewhere in between the landline and online numbers.

 

[jml]

Guys, you can't be taking a voluntary IP address poll seriously. All that poll measures is how popular each candidate is among people who have taken the poll. The people most likely to vote in the election will be those least likely accounted for in that poll.

 

[evvabeing]

Guys, you can't be taking a voluntary IP address poll seriously. All that poll measures is how popular each candidate is among people who have taken the poll. The people most likely to vote in the election will be those least likely accounted for in that poll.

i'm not taking the online poll seriously, but i'm not taking the landline polls seriously either. i'm just trying to learn something from both.

 

[WislaHD]

Someone on here said that the most loyal of Ford Nation just wouldn't vote if he wasn't an option.

Possibly, but I think the biggest change to the polls would be the number of people intending on voting for "Anybody but Ford". Given Chow's lucklustre performances the past month, the "Anyone but Ford" vote might be whats keeping her from an mid-campaign collapse. (Ala, Barbara Hall)


Either way, I think a lot of Tory and Chow's support (ie; preferred non-Ford candidate) would have to reevaluate their options if Ford was out of the race. Soknacki as someone who appeals to both right and left of center voters could prove to be the biggest poll jump winner here but Tory would probably inherit much of Ford's non-hardcore support. Would it be enough to overtake Chow and how much Soknacki spoils both Chow/Tory are questions that could only be answered after October 27.