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2014 Municipal Election: Toronto Mayoral Race

Respect to Sokacki for jumping in first and trying to get some issues in the media. Truth is however he is basically cannon fodder. Ford WILL get 30-35% of the vote minimum. Any number of thoughtful fiscal conservatives who leave his camp will be replaced by the Kardashian crowd. In a 3 or 4 way race that tanslates into a Ford win. Name recognition is all that matters. Sokacki's job might be to sway a few more people when he exits the race and throws his support behind x name recognition candidate.

The only issue that matters in this election ultimately is Ford. The problem with this is that when the election is about for or against one candidate, name recognition throws more votes into Ford's camp. Ford will get 5-10 percent of the vote just because he will be the only person on the ballet with a name the person in the voting booth will recognize.
 
First thing he has to do is to get people to spell his name correctly: Soknacki
It's back to the whole Sarah Thomson thing again. :)
 
TrickyRicky said:
Respect to Sokacki for jumping in first and trying to get some issues in the media. Truth is however he is basically cannon fodder. Ford WILL get 30-35% of the vote minimum. Any number of thoughtful fiscal conservatives who leave his camp will be replaced by the Kardashian crowd. In a 3 or 4 way race that tanslates into a Ford win. Name recognition is all that matters. Sokacki's job might be to sway a few more people when he exits the race and throws his support behind x name recognition candidate.

The only issue that matters in this election ultimately is Ford. The problem with this is that when the election is about for or against one candidate, name recognition throws more votes into Ford's camp. Ford will get 5-10 percent of the vote just because he will be the only person on the ballet with a name the person in the voting booth will recognize.
Click to expand...

Remember this election Rob Ford doesn't have Nick Kouvalis and Mark Towhey behind him. Rob Ford might feel like he's a rock star but how many of those "supporters" will actually go out and vote for him?

Also remember that the election is just started plenty of time for candidates to get their names out.
 
Neshi came from nowhere to win Calgary. Saw a documentary on his campaign that was running on Vision within the last few months. And probably at this time four years ago Ford looked like a joke candidate and the job was Smitherman's to win. All those who can only think of Tory or Chow as possible challengers to Ford are sentencing us to a rather limited future. I don't know if Soknacki will have any personal appeal for voters, but he seems to be bringing some significant issues and smart tactics to the fight. Someone who stood up to Ford, took on his bullying and called him on his excesses might gain attention quickly.
 
TrickyRicky said:
Respect to Sokacki for jumping in first and trying to get some issues in the media. Truth is however he is basically cannon fodder. Ford WILL get 30-35% of the vote minimum. Any number of thoughtful fiscal conservatives who leave his camp will be replaced by the Kardashian crowd. In a 3 or 4 way race that tanslates into a Ford win. Name recognition is all that matters. Sokacki's job might be to sway a few more people when he exits the race and throws his support behind x name recognition candidate.

The only issue that matters in this election ultimately is Ford. The problem with this is that when the election is about for or against one candidate, name recognition throws more votes into Ford's camp. Ford will get 5-10 percent of the vote just because he will be the only person on the ballet with a name the person in the voting booth will recognize.
Click to expand...

At best, Robbie will get 27% of the vote, all in.
 
TrickyRicky said:
Ford WILL get 30-35% of the vote minimum. Any number of thoughtful fiscal conservatives who leave his camp will be replaced by the Kardashian crowd.
Click to expand...

I'd argue that the Ford camp already claimed "the Kardashian crowd" in 2010. You can't replace something which already exists.
 
As someone who doesn't actually live in Toronto, the Rob Ford saga has actually been kind of entertaining, with all the stories of drug abuse, dead gangsters, etc. I'm starting to get bored with it though, so maybe it would be better if Toronto elects a real mayor next time.
 
Matt Elliott (aka GraphicMatt) mentioned on Twitter yesterday that he had some some semi-scientific calculations to figure out how easy/difficult incumbent councillors will be to unseat. He also mentioned that he was planning to make a blog post about it today, but nothing yet.

As I haven't seen it yet, I don't know how much stock to place in his assessmen, nor am I sure sure if he was planning to extend his method to Ford as incumbent Mayor. Still, he's generally a thoughtful writer & observer; I don't ever remember regretting reading one of his articles or posts.
 
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