The Future of subway and rapid transit in the GTA

[duffo]

There is good stuff in there, from the driverless trains to lower construction costs, for the underground lines by going shallow and standardizing much of the station design.

That said, the profit bit is a stretch......... its achieved first by having used real estate development to subsidize construction costs to the tune of billions of dollars, and doing so with land that was largely publicly owned (former military base) or created (new island/peninsula), debt was taken on at government-backed interest rates (much lower than commercial ones), and so the operating system doesn't have to cover the capital cost/debt-service in the same way one might traditionally calculate.

To be clear, I'm not criticizing the model which has much to recommend it (though if you look at the ugly shopping mall that was built on the former base, its not all a panacea). I'm simply saying the words 'operating profit' may be accurate, yet still misleading to the North American ear.

High fares are also worth talking about. The Copenhagen Metro covers 4 zones in the Denmark transit/rail regime, if you require a 4-zone ticket (valid for 1hr 45m) you'll fork out just over $8 CAD, the cheapest possible trip (2 zones) is equivalent to $5.15 per ticket (per direction) and is valid for only 1hr 15m.

Compare to TTC at $3.30 for 2 hours of valid fare.

A reading of their financials from 2024 may be worth a look for transit/policy nerds:

https://metroselskabet.euwest01.umbraco.io/media/wdpdft43/annual-report-2024-final.pdf

That aggressive pricing is possible, even a city that largely eschews tolls, because, well, there are no highways servicing the core.

When your ring road looks like this:

View attachment 731189

To be clear, there are highways:

View attachment 731190

But these begin a few km outside the old city/core area.

Oh, and did I mention that parking all day in the core is ~$60?

Which again is not to discount the good elements in the Copenhagen system, merely to point things are rarely as simple as they are portrayed, many moving parts.

So what I'm hearing is we need to majorly jack up Green P rates, start tearing down our highways, and use more cost effective transit construction methods to make TTC/GO more successful. No complaints here!

 

[NY99]

So what I'm hearing is we need to majorly jack up Green P rates, start tearing down our highways, and use more cost effective transit construction methods to make TTC/GO more successful. No complaints here!

A lot of the ingredients for Copenhagen-style success are there. Parking is very, very expensive in a North American context. We don’t have many city-centre highways to speak of — certainly not ones with any sort of sufficient capacity to meet current/future traffic demands. Both of these already drive TTC ridership in a major way.

I think the biggest thing hamstringing us from meeting our operational needs is the fare freeze currently in place.

If you look surveys of what keeps people away from transit, price of a ticket is at the bottom of the list. Its always service reliability and safety. Both of those need more money to improve.

 

[Northern Light]

A lot of the ingredients for Copenhagen-style success are there. Parking is very, very expensive in a North American context. We don’t have many city-centre highways to speak of — certainly not ones with any sort of sufficient capacity to meet current/future traffic demands. Both of these already drive TTC ridership in a major way.

There's truth in the above, but I'd add a few bits:

1} A higher proportion of GTA employment is outside the central core than comparable in Copenhagen.

2) In the suburban context, most Copenhagen within walking distance of a regional rail station; certainly not the case for most of the GTA.

3) Fare evasion rates are higher here.

4) We have a far higher proportion of low and ultra-low income people. Danish entry level wages and social benefits are considerably more generous.

I think the biggest thing hamstringing us from meeting our operational needs is the fare freeze currently in place.

See above. I think we could do higher fares, but fare evasion would double, we have to check that first.

Second we have to address the money thing. The entry level wage (fast food worker, new hire) is 130dkk per hour or about $27.80 CAD

The minimum wage in Toronto is $17.90.

That explains a chunk of the difference.

Danish social assistance for a single person over 30 with no children clocks in at 13,100 DKK or about $2,800 CAD compared with Ontario's $733 for Ontario Works.

Higher fares require higher incomes for social acceptance.

If you look surveys of what keeps people away from transit, price of a ticket is at the bottom of the list. Its always service reliability and safety. Both of those need more money to improve.

Reliability/perceived safety are definitely issues that outrank fare premium. But does the service go where you need it, when you need it, and at a time that's competitive with car ranks as high or higher.

You don't have to think of working in Meadowvale in Mississauga or in 'downtown Markham' to think about how transit isn't competitive here for many trips.

You have to think Victoria Park and Lawrence to North York City Centre;

Google tells me if I left to do that route right now, I could do it by car in 14 minutes flat; or I could take transit for 42 minutes.

or Bloor/Keele to Carlingview road industrial area - Car - 19 minutes, Transit - 52 minutes.

Its not just about downtown.

 

[NY99]

There's truth in the above, but I'd add a few bits:

1} A higher proportion of GTA employment is outside the central core than comparable in Copenhagen.

2) In the suburban context, most Copenhagen within walking distance of a regional rail station; certainly not the case for most of the GTA.

3) Fare evasion rates are higher here.

4) We have a far higher proportion of low and ultra-low income people. Danish entry level wages and social benefits are considerably more generous.



See above. I think we could do higher fares, but fare evasion would double, we have to check that first.

Second we have to address the money thing. The entry level wage (fast food worker, new hire) is 130dkk per hour or about $27.80 CAD

The minimum wage in Toronto is $17.90.

That explains a chunk of the difference.

Danish social assistance for a single person over 30 with no children clocks in at 13,100 DKK or about $2,800 CAD compared with Ontario's $733 for Ontario Works.

Higher fares require higher incomes for social acceptance.



Reliability/perceived safety are definitely issues that outrank fare premium. But does the service go where you need it, when you need it, and at a time that's competitive with car ranks as high or higher.

You don't have to think of working in Meadowvale in Mississauga or in 'downtown Markham' to think about how transit isn't competitive here for many trips.

You have to think Victoria Park and Lawrence to North York City Centre;

Google tells me if I left to do that route right now, I could do it by car in 14 minutes flat; or I could take transit for 42 minutes.

or Bloor/Keele to Carlingview road industrial area - Car - 19 minutes, Transit - 52 minutes.

Its not just about downtown.

The trip time itself is half the story in my opinion. Apps like Google pad transit time to account for variability. Very often my actual trip time diverges from the estimated one — in both directions! With improvements to surface route scheduling adherence (dedicated lanes, better TSP, queue jump lanes, wider stop spacing, etc.), where people can trust that 42 minutes is actually 42 minutes, I think that would help a lot.

Point taken about fare evasion. I 100% support implementing new San Francisco style fare gate (although the streetcar system would continue to be a challenge).

Improving social assistance is important, to be sure. But the TTC can’t rely on other levels of government to address societal ills in order to properly fund itself. Prior to the pandemic, our fares weren’t much below $4 in 2026 $. Something like that is more than justified in my opinion. You can always increase targeted low-income subsidization programs to compensate.

 

[drum118]

We rode the system in 2022 and look forward to ridding the Ontario Line as it will be the same system

How Copenhagen built a metro for free

 

[just east of the creek]

There's truth in the above, but I'd add a few bits:

1} A higher proportion of GTA employment is outside the central core than comparable in Copenhagen.

2) In the suburban context, most Copenhagen within walking distance of a regional rail station; certainly not the case for most of the GTA.

3) Fare evasion rates are higher here.

4) We have a far higher proportion of low and ultra-low income people. Danish entry level wages and social benefits are considerably more generous.



See above. I think we could do higher fares, but fare evasion would double, we have to check that first.

Second we have to address the money thing. The entry level wage (fast food worker, new hire) is 130dkk per hour or about $27.80 CAD

The minimum wage in Toronto is $17.90.

That explains a chunk of the difference.

Danish social assistance for a single person over 30 with no children clocks in at 13,100 DKK or about $2,800 CAD compared with Ontario's $733 for Ontario Works.

Higher fares require higher incomes for social acceptance.



Reliability/perceived safety are definitely issues that outrank fare premium. But does the service go where you need it, when you need it, and at a time that's competitive with car ranks as high or higher.

You don't have to think of working in Meadowvale in Mississauga or in 'downtown Markham' to think about how transit isn't competitive here for many trips.

You have to think Victoria Park and Lawrence to North York City Centre;

Google tells me if I left to do that route right now, I could do it by car in 14 minutes flat; or I could take transit for 42 minutes.

or Bloor/Keele to Carlingview road industrial area - Car - 19 minutes, Transit - 52 minutes.

Its not just about downtown.

Do not overlook the cost of ownership of a car, and the cost of running it. A well planned, quick and efficient transit system, as Copenhagen has, is an easier choice to make. And I think the stronger bike culture fits into this as well. We have a ways to go.

 

[Northern Light]

Do not overlook the cost of ownership of a car, and the cost of running it.

I'm not, but you have start with ownership levels as they exist today; something that won't move downward significantly without substantially more robust transit.

Approximately 56% of households in Copenhagen do not have a car, this compares to 28% (exactly 1/2) in Toronto.

. And I think the stronger bike culture fits into this as well. We have a ways to go.

62% of Copenhagen residents commute by bike.

The number in Toronto (proper) is 3%.

I certainly see room for improvement, but I think much over 6% is unlikely in the next decade.

 

[just east of the creek]

I'm not, but you have start with ownership levels as they exist today; something that won't move downward significantly without substantially more robust transit.

Approximately 56% of households in Copenhagen do not have a car, this compares to 28% (exactly 1/2) in Toronto.



62% of Copenhagen residents commute by bike.

The number in Toronto (proper) is 3%.

I certainly see room for improvement, but I think much over 6% is unlikely in the next decade.

Yes, the car culture in this country is a tough nut to crack.

 

[urbanclient]

That said, the profit bit is a stretch......... [...] I'm simply saying the words 'operating profit' may be accurate, yet still misleading to the North American ear.

Of course operating profit doesn't mean the capital costs are paid off through operations (alone). Very few transit systems in the world paid/can pay for their own capital costs. However, it is surprising to me that the relatively low ridership of Copenhagen's metro can reach 90+% farebox recovery, sprinkle in other revenues like advertising and retail... voila, profitability.

Their network is about 60% the size of Toronto's 43 km vs 70 km, but has only 1/3rd to 1/4th the ridership depending on year, despite running 24/7. Goes to show how much labour cost is saved with driverless trains.

Still irks me that some of Line 5's gargantuan stations have little to no provision for retail. Mount Dennis, Cedarvale, Eglinton, Kennedy. Also, some of the 2+ storey entrances would be ripe for a small coffee shop on the second floor, had they been designed for it from the start. Ancillary revenue generation was never on Metrolinx's agenda.

 

[doady]

Do you guys actually believe that the TTC subway is operating at a loss?

I don't have the recent numbers, but in 2003 and 2004 the 19 Hurontario bus in Mississauga operated at 113% cost recovery on weekdays with mere articulated buses in mixed traffic, so I seriously doubt that the TTC subway is operating at a loss with 6-car trains in an exclusive right of way. During that time, the TTC as a whole was operating at around 80% cost recovery, even without any articulated buses in the fleet.

19 HURONTARIO

YEAR       REVENUE     COST        RATIO
03-weekday $5,417,186  $4,807,529  113%
03-weekend $1,165,042  $1,076,425  108%
04-weekday $5,984,900  $5,305,955  113%
04-weekend $1,149,100  $1,355,624  85%

 

[urbanclient]

Do you guys actually believe that the TTC subway is operating at a loss?

I don't have the recent numbers, but in 2003 and 2004 the 19 Hurontario bus in Mississauga operated at 113% cost recovery on weekdays with mere articulated buses in mixed traffic, so I seriously doubt that the TTC subway is operating at a loss with 6-car trains in an exclusive right of way. During that time, the TTC as a whole was operating at around 80% cost recovery, even without any articulated buses in the fleet.

19 HURONTARIO

YEAR       REVENUE     COST        RATIO
03-weekday $5,417,186  $4,807,529  113%
03-weekend $1,165,042  $1,076,425  108%
04-weekday $5,984,900  $5,305,955  113%
04-weekend $1,149,100  $1,355,624  85%

Do you have the source for this? I tried finding it to no avail.

 

[drum118]

Do you have the source for this? I tried finding it to no avail.

Based on my data for route 19, it was a money maker until it got split in two and the 502 coming to CCTT.

 

[Northern Light]

So what I'm hearing is we need to majorly jack up Green P rates, start tearing down our highways, and use more cost effective transit construction methods to make TTC/GO more successful. No complaints here!

I'm happy to endorse all of these.

But, barring electing both a radical mayor and council (said in a good way); we need to prioritize meaningful steps towards these things.

Example, with all the money spent on the Gardiner rebuild, tearing it down in the next two decades has become quite unlikely; but what we could do, is first remove the ramps from both Queen and Dundas which would improve pedestrian and cycling safety and slightly reduce volumes on the lower DVP and eastern Gardiner.

Then, we have to look at either tolls or a congestion charge, in all likehood to get volumes down to where a partial teardown would make sense to people.

Its still plausible at this point to abandon the hybrid Gardiner idea and just off ramp it to Lakeshore, but its unlikely. However, the complete stall of East Harbour really opens that up for discussion.

On Parking, restricting on street parking, especially on streetcar routes and downtown comes first, as this drives up the demand for off-street parking making the argument for higher prices easier.

We also need to significantly increase permit parking costs, as in at least double if not triple the entry level permit.

Once we get there, providing we're building up transit (which requires, in part, that we drive down those construction costs), we get to a place where raising transit fares modestly becomes more viable.

If we drive down fare evasion, implement platform edge doors an go driver-less on the trains, there you are......the subway would turn an operating profit, at least in denser areas.

But it will be a multi-year, or even two decade long slog to get there.

 

[urbanclient]

Do you guys actually believe that the TTC subway is operating at a loss?

I don't have the recent numbers, but in 2003 and 2004 the 19 Hurontario bus in Mississauga operated at 113% cost recovery on weekdays with mere articulated buses in mixed traffic, so I seriously doubt that the TTC subway is operating at a loss with 6-car trains in an exclusive right of way. During that time, the TTC as a whole was operating at around 80% cost recovery, even without any articulated buses in the fleet.

19 HURONTARIO

YEAR       REVENUE     COST        RATIO
03-weekday $5,417,186  $4,807,529  113%
03-weekend $1,165,042  $1,076,425  108%
04-weekday $5,984,900  $5,305,955  113%
04-weekend $1,149,100  $1,355,624  85%

I did some back of the napkin math with public TTC stats. The subway-only farebox recovery rate is between 70-75% in 2024-2025, on the lower end when Presto fees are deducted. Unfortunately nowhere close to 100%.

 

[MisterF]

Their network is about 60% the size of Toronto's 43 km vs 70 km, but has only 1/3rd to 1/4th the ridership depending on year, despite running 24/7. Goes to show how much labour cost is saved with driverless trains.

This probably doesn't change your point but Copenhagen's relatively small metro is complemented by the S-Train, which is functionally the same thing in the central city. It's everything GO Transit should be. So the mass transit system is a lot bigger than that 43 km figure would suggest.