News from the Middle East

[Full Metal Junkie]

Israel is getting bombed and the 'Iron Dome' is essentially no more.

Blatantly false.

Been seeing reports of most US bases in surrounding countries (Bahrain, UAE, etc) being destroyed including the radar systems.

It's a big stretch to go from "a kamikaze drone got through air defenses and destroyed a satellite dish" to claiming "most US bases are being destroyed".
As far as real damage sustained by the US:
- 6 soldiers killed in a drone strike in Kuwait
- 3 F-15s downed over Kuwait by friendly fire, all 6 crew members are alive and well.
- another F-15 was reportedly recently downed over Iraq, circumstances TBD.
- some kamikaze drone strikes on various bases around middle east, minor damage.

From military perspective, the overall military damage sustained by anti-Iran coalition can be summed up as 'tis but a scratch. Civilian and oil infrastructure - a different question.

The Arab states that usually support the US are starting to feel abandoned.

Any sources for this claim?

Oil ships can't get through

Yep, that's the main problem so far. And not just oil tankers....
Iran keeps striking vessels in the Persian Gulf. Today they struck a UAE tugboat that was rescuing a container ship that was struck and disabled earlier:

https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/security/tug-struck-assisting-abandoned-container-ship-in-strait-of-hormuz

They've struck all sorts of merchant vessels with aerial drones, unmanned surface vessels, and even anti-ship missiles. Merchant vessel traffic across the strait of Hormuz is at a standstill despite US offer earlier this week to ensure safe passage.

In addition, all sorts of oils and gas refineries, LNG plants, oil storage facilities are being hit daily across the Arabian peninsula:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2029851942214684789

As the result, oil price is up to almost $90 a barrel. To alleviate global oil shortage, Trump admin even graciously allowed India to buy Russian oil for the next 30 days. This sucks. This will go a long way to replenish Kremlin's coffers for its war effort in Ukraine.

However, as far as overall war with Iran goes, none of what we're seeing is unexpected. The success/failure will depend on how quickly the US/Israel forces destroy/diminish Iranian capabilities to shut down the merchant trade across the Persian Gulf.
Is it reasonable to have expected it done on day one? No.
Should we have seen some decline in Iran's ability to launch drones by now? Yes.
The fact that they are sustaining the same volume of drone attacks is worrisome.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

I for one don't believe for a second that the people who bring up xx,000 dead Iranian protestors (which is Israeli propaganda by the way) care one shit about the people of Iran. Just like they didn't care about the people of Gaza when Israel was committing its attrocities.

Hey there!
Yeah, hi, I'm that person who keeps bringing up the thousands of dead Iranians.
Yes, I care a lot about the wellbeing of the people if Iran. Or any people for that matter. Always has, always will.
And contrary to what you think, I also care about the people of Gaza. I've been critical of of Israel's policy towards Palestine for over 20 years now (way before it was 'cool' to be critical of it). I have always called what Israel is doing in Gaza for the past 2.5 years a genocide. I wish Netanyahu gets to burn in hell right next to Ayatollah Khamenei. They deserve each other.

I also don't see how criticizing Iran's and Israel's bloodthirsty governments is mutually exclusive. But people like you somehow find those positions to be mutually exclusive.

As far as the number of Iranians massacred two months ago, this Wikipedia article has a good summary table for the number of victims and the sources of those claims:

2026 Iran massacres - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

But in short, even the Ayatollah regime is giving a figure of at least 3000 dead. The human rights watch has documented 7000 (and counting) of confirmed dead. The 30000 figure is based on journalist interviewing hospital/morgue staff across various locations in Iran and extrapolating it across the entire country. Not a precise figure, but sound methodology. And if you would bother to look up any pictures of the number of corpses stacked near the hospitals following the Jan 8 massacre, you would have few reasons to doubt the 30K+ estimate.

But you won't bother to. You have already made up your mind that all of it is Israeli propaganda. And that's the problem that myself and many other people are trying to point out with your position.

Just because you want to believe something, doesn't make it true.

 

[zang]

I see lots of criticism of Israel by the left. Very little to none on subjects like persecution of women, sexual minorities, etc in Islam.

Where are you looking, if at all?

Mother Jones on the plight of women in Afghanistan
The Intercept on the stoning of the LGBTQ community in Brunei.
A literal article on The Conversation complaining about muslim anti-LGBT protests in Canada.

Folks on the left call for cancellation of public figures for having a bad date (eg, Aziz Ansari) but don't comment on homophobia and anti-semitism from Muslim clerics.

Unrelated, and complete BS. Aziz caught some negative press, but was never "cancelled" by the left. Maybe you just haven't paid enough attention to his career.

Right after that he went on to produce the third season of his Netflix series Master of None and still occasionally appears on probably the secretly-most-leftist-show-on-prime-time-network-tv, Bob's Burgers. He never stopped touring standup or making TV appearances. So, I'm not really sure you know what "cancelled" means.

Lots have seized on the erroneous bombing of a girls school located on a military compound in Iran, but not much comment on the 20k civilians slaughtered by the regime.

Cut the whataboutism. People are complaining about starting a war that's happening NOW.

Second, confirmed numbers are so far just over 7000. Those throwing around the largest of the estimates here appear to be motivated by using it as justification for this war, and as bludgeon to try and brand the "the left" as hypocrites.

But for that matter, The Majority Report with Sam Seder (who's show motto is "Left is Best"), started talking about the murder of protesters when they first started happening.

There is a troubling pattern of behaviour in the UK to turn a blind eye to misdeeds committed by some in the Muslim community, particularly by Labour.

You a fan of Tommy Robinson? List the unpunished misdeeds before proceeding down this street.

I am not a defender of Israel--I don't pick sides in that quagmire. I have greatest sympathy for Palestinian children who suffer for the stupid pointless cycle of hatred and for which they are not yet complicit.

I haven't seen much from the right on the plight of the Rohingya these days. Such hypocrites.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

something about the US pouring arms into western Iran to arm the Kurds, who apparently have agreed in return to move on the regime

There was a lot of conflicting info on the Kurd involvement this week. Some news outlets even reported that Kurds started their ground offensive on Wednesday. Then Kurd officials denied it. Then the news cycle moved on.

Here's an interesting report on the potential of the Kurdish offensive in Iran. They make an argument that the offensive is coming and paint a grim picture for some of the potential outcomes. WarFronts are good with how they source their information. Their predictions don't always come true, but the reasoning behind their predictions is usually sound:

 

[adma]

Many on the left are very sympathetic to if not outright allied with Islamism. Islamism is not a good or even benign thing.

Many on the left are very sympathetic to if not outright allied with Christianity, too Think of the Social Gospel, et al.

 

[narduch]

Sounds like the Americans are doing great.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2030040295300088071

 

[Richard White]

Sounds like the Americans are doing great.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2030040295300088071

Not to mention China and Russia are against them.

 

[narduch]

Not to mention China and Russia are against them.

Apparently they are supplying Iran with parts needed to build more weapons

 

[Richard White]

Apparently they are supplying Iran with parts needed to build more weapons

I hate to say it but I'd love to see the US get their smug asses handed to them.

It would knock them down a peg and force them to face reality.

 

[lenaitch]

I wouldn't be surprised if we see a significant de-escalation after Trump and his circle have made their fill from the stock market disruption.

The Kurds have to remember the number of times they have been left twisting in the wind by the West.

 

[81-717]

I hate to say it but I'd love to see the US get their smug asses handed to them.

Hopefully not on US soil, though (and certainly not on Canadian soil).

 

[Richard White]

Hopefully not on US soil, though (and certainly not on Canadian soil).

Agreed.

Trump is unstable enough to invade Russia or launch nukes if he thinks he's losing.

 

[81-717]

Trump is unstable enough to invade Russia or launch nukes if he thinks he's losing.

Russia is probably the same in that sense.

 

[UtakataNoAnnex]

Many on the left are very sympathetic to if not outright allied with Christianity, too Think of the Social Gospel, et al.

I think adma-san eluded to an important point. That is, I am not sure there's any real issue here. Progressives don't usually align themselves with religious extremists....some of which is to do for self preservation. And some of which that we could never support their positions in good conscious. And put that mildly. Furthermore, we all have various friends, colleagues and associations from various different religions or lack there-of. And as far as we know, they do not hold extremist positions. And many are progressives themselves.

So at the end of the day, this conversation seems counter productive if not pointless, as it appears all an exercise to appeal to hypocrisy when we don't agree with others' views. Or even when we oppose certain religious views but not that of our own. Because ours is righteous, pure and noble and everyone else's is a heathen and all that nonsense...a lens we should always avoid looking through, IMO.

And finally, does religion poison everything? I think hatred and bigotry most certainly does...sometimes fueled by religious extremism. Or religious extremism is used as an excuse for hatred and bigotry. Pick the that poison...

...either way, most those we try to associate with don't fall into that category. And thusly, it's completely okay to hang out with them. Even those opinions acting in bad faith say it's not. And if that makes sense.

Edit: ...oh, right. It was moved here along with my post. Re-edited that to reflect that then.

 

[UtakataNoAnnex]

Agreed.

Trump is unstable enough to invade Russia or launch nukes if he thinks he's losing.

While I don't think the doomerism is helpful here....but I also think we should be aware of that as a possibility. /bleah