Toronto Forma | 308m | 84s | Great Gulf | Gehry Partners

[Tyrang]

...deregulation would likely cause it's own problems, like towers more prone to collapsing unintentionally upon sleeping residents. So let's not go there. >.<

I think we do need to look at the way we approve zoning and buildings. I am sure @its_Caffeine means to remove some of the bloated processes, like if the building affects 5 families in a way that they are not getting direct sun between 4pm to 6pm.

No need to shut down a suggestion by countering with the most extreme scenario.

 

[Northern Light]

Condo shoeboxes are pretty much the product of housing supply being so constrained and asininely over-regulated that investors seek to maximize returns by whatever means possible. I have sincere doubts you would see condos of this size with this price tag if zoning were deregulated across the board.

The thing is, people buy these things. The demand is there because we have made it impossible to build and expand, both vertically and through sprawl. That means tighter living spaces for everyone.

This is entirely untrue.

100%

As someone who has facilitated a lot of zoning reforms, and who is open to championing more, their absence and them happening do nothing to change shoe-box designs.

Its investors who dictate that, and the solution is the elimination of investor-owned housing, excepting purpose-built rental.

 

[Northern Light]

I think we do need to look at the way we approve zoning and buildings. I am sure @its_Caffeine means to remove some of the bloated processes, like if the building affects 5 families in a way that they are not getting direct sun between 4pm to 6pm.

There is no such by-law or regulation.

There are shadowing regulations, but they don't work like that.

No need to shut down a suggestion by countering with the most extreme scenario.

@UtakataNoAnnex wasn't shutting anyone or anything down, but rather pointing out the extremeness of the post in question, which she was right to do.

 

[UtakataNoAnnex]

I mean if it's investor/developer greed is at issue here, why advocate something that would make them more greedy and less accountable through deregulation?

That said, I am sure as Northern Light-san has eluded to, improvements can be made here. And I am open to that...just not in a way that gives these parties extra advantages at the expense of consumers. And to put that mildly.

 

[Tyrang]

There is no such by-law or regulation.

There are shadowing regulations, but they don't work like that.



@UtakataNoAnnex wasn't shutting anyone or anything down, but rather pointing out the extremeness of the post in question, which she was right to do.

Obviously I am not as verse as the regulation as yourself - I have just just drawn from memory a partition to stop a project with pretty much that as a reason. Granted, the partition is not the official review process, it is just to get signings.

I have, time and again, heard from the construction side that the regulation process has made building in Toronto fairly costly, as review can drag out for years. I have also seen creative original being dumped down in the process for many a project. So my question is, can the process be streamlined better?

 

[Northern Light]

Obviously I am not as verse as the regulation as yourself - I have just just drawn from memory a partition to stop a project with pretty much that as a reason. Granted, the partition is not the official review process, it is just to get signings.

I have, time and again, heard from the construction side that the regulation process has made building in Toronto fairly costly, as review can drag out for years. I have also seen creative original being dumped down in the process for many a project. So my question is, can the process be streamlined better?

We have a dedicated thread for discussing zoning reforms, which is really where this discussion belongs, rather than in this thread:

Zoning Reform Ideas

On Corner Stores (zoning change) and the bizarre fears of some, a good column from Ed Kennan in The Star: https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/why-can-t-toronto-have-nice-things-ask-the-people-who-won-t-let-neighbourhoods/article_e995e406-bee5-11ef-89fe-af01f0a4934e.html

urbantoronto.ca

Its 104 pages of thoughts (and actual changes) to zoning in the GTA.

I don't expect you to go back and read the whole thing, but maybe see if you can get through the last dozen pages.......

At that point, I'm happy to examine different changes that could be made.

****

For now, just to provide a short, but admittedly over-simplified answer, the typical zoning change is now moving through the City system in under 4 months. Some still take longer, not counting those appealed to OLT.

So overall, at that level, I would say, there isn't that much to be done, that much faster.

But there are things that could be made as-of-right, so you skip zoning; but lots of progress has been made on that file as well.

Site Plans tend to take too long in Toronto still.....but that's not so much a zoning reform........and is quite the lengthy discussion.

Its worth saying, the best prepared developers and teams see their stuff move pretty quickly, most of the time..........poorly thought out/rushed proposals often need considerable rework and resubmission.

 

[Tyrang]

We have a dedicated thread for discussing zoning reforms, which is really where this discussion belongs, rather than in this thread:

Zoning Reform Ideas

On Corner Stores (zoning change) and the bizarre fears of some, a good column from Ed Kennan in The Star: https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/why-can-t-toronto-have-nice-things-ask-the-people-who-won-t-let-neighbourhoods/article_e995e406-bee5-11ef-89fe-af01f0a4934e.html

urbantoronto.ca

Its 104 pages of thoughts (and actual changes) to zoning in the GTA.

I don't expect you to back and read the whole thing, but maybe see if you get through the last dozen pages.......

At that point, I'm happy to examine different changes that could be made.

****

For now, just to provide a short, but admittedly over-simplified answer, the typical zoning change is now moving through the City system in under 4 months. Some still take longer, not counting those appealed to OLT.

So overall, at that level, I would say, there isn't that much to be done, that much faster.

But there are things that could be made as-of-right, so you skip zoning; but lots of progress has been made on that file as well.

Site Plans tend to take too long in Toronto still.....but that's not so much a zoning reform........and is quite the lengthy discussion.

Its worth saying, the best prepared developers and teams see their stuff move pretty quickly, most of the time..........poorly thought out/rushed proposals often need considerable rework and resubmission.

Thanks @Northern Light, I will do some reading there, as this is very interesting to me.

 

[Undead]

Another problem is that developers are currently sitting on many thousands (possibly hundreds of thousands) of approved units. Said units aren't under construction because the devs are waiting for the "market to be there" which in normal human speak translates to "we're too greedy to accept current prices."

It's not always "City/regulations bad"

 

[stevedean]

Another problem is that developers are currently sitting on many thousands (possibly hundreds of thousands) of approved units. Said units aren't under construction because the devs are waiting for the "market to be there" which in normal human speak translates to "we're too greedy to accept current prices."

It's not always "City/regulations bad"

yaaaa, I'm going to need a citation for that claim...

Developers (like any other business) don't build or sell products unless they can make a profit. Their financing costs went up significantly since 2022, their labour costs and material costs have gone up significantly since the pandemic - plus add in the huge government fees.

Your claim that they are sitting on "thousands (possibly hundreds of thousands) of approved units" leaves out the key aspect of making a profit... they're not going to build out of the goodness of the hearts...

 

[Undead]

yaaaa, I'm going to need a citation for that claim...

1.2 Million Pre-Construction Units in the Pipeline Across the GTHA | UrbanToronto

There are more than 1.2 million housing units waiting to be built in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area; some are approved, some are recent submissions, and some are even re-submissions for previously approved projects—often asking for more density, height, and units. We dive deeper into the...

urbantoronto.ca

"We can also look at units currently approved but still in pre-construction. This may be for a variety of reasons, including developers exploring whether to change their proposal somehow (usually to add more units), or market timing (emphasis mine), or looking for another developer to flip the already rezoned site to, or a host of other reasons. There are more than 210,000 such units across the GTHA."

I know it's GTHA, not Toronto, but the Province has been pressuring most major munis for faster approvals.

Developers (like any other business) don't build or sell products unless they can make a profit. Their financing costs went up significantly since 2022, their labour costs and material costs have gone up significantly since the pandemic - plus add in the huge government fees.

Your claim that they are sitting on "thousands (possibly hundreds of thousands) of approved units" leaves out the key aspect of making a profit... they're not going to build out of the goodness of the hearts...

I am extremely aware of this. My point is that there are many factors causing delays in development. Government red tape is only one such factor. But to focus only on this factor makes for an incomplete analysis.

 

[stevedean]

1.2 Million Pre-Construction Units in the Pipeline Across the GTHA | UrbanToronto

There are more than 1.2 million housing units waiting to be built in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area; some are approved, some are recent submissions, and some are even re-submissions for previously approved projects—often asking for more density, height, and units. We dive deeper into the...

urbantoronto.ca

"We can also look at units currently approved but still in pre-construction. This may be for a variety of reasons, including developers exploring whether to change their proposal somehow (usually to add more units), or market timing (emphasis mine), or looking for another developer to flip the already rezoned site to, or a host of other reasons. There are more than 210,000 such units across the GTHA."

I know it's GTHA, not Toronto, but the Province has been pressuring most major munis for faster approvals.


I am extremely aware of this. My point is that there are many factors causing delays in development. Government red tape is only one such factor. But to focus only on this factor makes for an incomplete analysis.

So based on that link, 132k approved units in Toronto (not hundreds of thousands).

I stand by my point about it being a useless number if there is no profit to be made.

 

[Civdis]

Another problem is that developers are currently sitting on many thousands (possibly hundreds of thousands) of approved units. Said units aren't under construction because the devs are waiting for the "market to be there" which in normal human speak translates to "we're too greedy to accept current prices."

It's not always "City/regulations bad"

Time for a rant. I love how some on this forum have no clue how the development industry works. The "greed" you are referring to is what economists would call profit margin, the thing that drives our economy and pays the taxes that pay for our healthcare, education, and infrastructure programs. It is very simple, construction costs and interest rates have risen to the point that it is unprofitable to build at the moment. Unless costs come down or pre-con prices go up, there will be very little building. Some purpose built rental projects can make sense, but only because of government supported CMHC financing programs. I have sites that even if the land were free, the development would not pencil at this time. Those are the cold hard facts.

 

[Dr. Snoot]

Time for a rant. I love how some on this forum have no clue how the development industry works. The "greed" you are referring to is what economists would call profit margin, the thing that drives our economy and pays the taxes that pay for our healthcare, education, and infrastructure programs. It is very simple, construction costs and interest rates have risen to the point that it is unprofitable to build at the moment. Unless costs come down or pre-con prices go up, there will be very little building. Some purpose built rental projects can make sense, but only because of government supported CMHC financing programs. I have sites that even if the land were free, the development would not pencil at this time. Those are the cold hard facts.

Actually, in a perfectly competitive and rational market, economists would say there is no profit margin. Assuming there is any profit to be made or loss to be avoided, there must be some incentive that leads to approved units not being built. It is possible and indeed likely that the development industry has been exploiting the current market. As you mention, it is also possible that the situation is nobody's "fault" - i.e. a market failure. Macroeconomic factors such a rapid increase in interest rates and inflation, past speculation, or declining per capita incomes may mean it does not make sense to buy or build at the moment. If this is the case, either those factors will have to change or the situation will simply become worse.

My personal view is that the housing market in Canada is a longstanding failure caused by numerous factors and exacerbated by recent events that will lead to increasing misery for the lower and middle classes if nothing changes. After years of policies that have led to "impossible unaffordability" and historic inflation / interest rate hikes, the private housing market in Toronto may have simply reached its limit of production. It is possible that the only housing that will be built in significant numbers for some time is private luxury housing, investor units, public housing, or subsidized rental housing.

As a reminder, housing unaffordability is not unique to Toronto--it is a phenomenon in many international cities--meaning it is unlikely to be the fault of individual actors. Some factors, such as world population growth, urbanization, climate change, geographic restrictions, increasing wealth inequality, international investment flows, and in-migration are outside our "immediate" control. Others, such as restrictive land use / zoning policies, subsidized sprawl, perverse financial incentives+++ (such as subsidized mortgage insurance, mortgage interest deductions, biased government funding models, capital gains exemptions, and inadequate vacant land taxation) lead to overinvestment in real estate and speculation. One only need look to China, which has tens of millions of vacant housing units, but some of the most unaffordable housing in the world, to see the long-term effect of government policy distortions and human psychology on the real estate market.

Ultimately, I don't think housing unaffordability in Canada is the fault of municipalities (who can only respond to local conditions and are governed by existing laws), individual investors, or private builders (who are inherently selfish). The blame lies with a series of provincial and federal governments, which have known for 30+ years that Canada is not building enough housing to meet the needs of its growing population, but have avoided difficult reforms to land use / taxation laws and/or abandoned their role in building and financing public housing as an alternative to the private market. They have essentially allow the cycle of overinvestment, speculation, and overreliance on the private market to persist with extremely predictable results. We are just so "lucky" to be living at a time when decades of policy chickens are coming home to roost.

 

[The Preservationist]

The short term Toronto pre construction to closing unit investor model in my opinion has been largely negated simply because it requires condo pricing to increase significantly above interest rates and inflation, which is well above average wage increases. Getting unit investors out of the market should have long term benefits for housing the country as they add no tangible value to the end product, except possibly getting quicker project start dates. As for new construction, I don't see wages or material costs coming down, lower interest rates will help, the question I have is will we see land valuation decrease? I think we will have to wait and see on that one.

 

[stevedean]

The short term Toronto pre construction to closing unit investor model is in my opinion has been largely negated simply because it requires condo pricing to increase significantly above interest rates and inflation, which is well above average wage increases. Getting unit investors out of the market should have long term benefits for housing the country as they add no tangible value to the end product, except possibly getting quicker project start dates. As for new construction, I don't see wages or material costs coming down, lower interest rates will help, the question I have is will we see land valuation decrease? I think we will have to wait and see on that one.

The elimination of the "investor model" will lead to very little new inventory being built over the coming years.

There will be some purpose-built rentals completed (especially if governments provide incentives), and some Public housing built - but it will be slow and nowhere near the level of demand for housing.