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Rishi Sunak's United Kingdom

Running totals from BBC as at 11:18pm our time.

Cons Lab SNP Lib Dem
247165417512
Projection:


BBC Forecast: Con 362 seats, Lab 199, Lib Dems 13, SNP 52, Plaid 4, Green 1, Brexit 0, Others 19

Labour had a bad night; but the Lib-Dems also had the bottom drop out.
 
People will point out flaws in the first-past-the-post system but in terms of Raw votes and seat totals tge conservatives secured a huge victory
 
The problem I’ve been hearing about is how many Liberal parties across the West are fracturing into three factions:

1.) Educated, degree-holding professionals and political elites. Aka the Brahmin Left, purveyor of high-level, top-down global policies (like climate change); yet are not afraid to embrace corporatism.
2.) The declining traditional socially conservative working-class. Aka the traditional Left of the unions, localism, and worker’s rights.
3.) Students and Ethnic minorities. A newer, increasingly powerful, occasionally radical faction that must be constantly appeased via social programs, lest they simply don't vote- or that they storm the Establishment gates.

With globalization, educational inflation and mass migration, the first faction is counting on the third to replace the second. As the second faction feels increasingly marginalized and attacked by the other factions- it looks to, and accepts Conservative populism as a way out- MAGA and Brexit are symptoms of this. The left’s inability to accept these movements as essentially populist rebellions against a perceived Globalist order has only infuriated the working class even further, who may see things like the 2nd Brexit Referendum as being fundamentally undemocratic. Hence the Brexit party, which exists only essentially as a protest vote, and which sapped huge numbers of votes from Labour.

Furthermore, these factions also inevitably fight, have their own separate objectives- and so are unable to present an unified vision. So you have the first faction alleging the third faction is responsible for anti-semitism in Labour, Labour presenting a muddled mashy-feeling vision and none of it working against the singular resonance of ‘Get Brexit Done’.
 
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The problem I’ve been hearing about is how many Liberal parties across the West are fracturing into three factions:

1.) Educated, degree-holding professionals and political elites. Aka the Brahmin Left, purveyor of high-level, top-down global policies (like climate change); yet are not afraid to embrace corporatism.
2.) The declining traditional socially conservative working-class. Aka the traditional Left of the unions, localism, and worker’s rights.
3.) Students and Ethnic minorities. A newer, increasingly powerful, occasionally radical faction that must be constantly appeased via social programs, lest they simply don't vote- or that they storm the Establishment gates.

With globalization, educational inflation and mass migration, the first faction is counting on the third to replace the second. As the second faction feels increasingly marginalized and attacked by the other factions- it looks to, and accepts Conservative populism as a way out- MAGA and Brexit are symptoms of this. The left’s inability to accept these movements as essentially populist rebellions against a perceived Globalist order has only infuriated the working class even further, who may see things like the 2nd Brexit Referendum as being fundamentally undemocratic. Hence the Brexit party, which exists only essentially as a protest vote, and which sapped huge numbers of votes from Labour.

Furthermore, these factions also inevitably fight, have their own separate objectives- and so are unable to present an unified vision. So you have the first faction alleging the third faction is responsible for anti-semitism in Labour, Labour presenting a muddled mashy-feeling vision and none of it working against the singular resonance of ‘Get Brexit Done’.


The issue is people in group 1 are usually huge hypocrites who say they are about a just soceity but are fine with people being exploited or ignored for their own benefit.
 
People will point out flaws in the first-past-the-post system but in terms of Raw votes and seat totals tge conservatives secured a huge victory

Did they though? Yes, they won a majority of constituencies.

But if you look at Labour, Lib-Dem, SNP and Green as being comparatively aligned albeit in different degrees and with varying points of emphasis; those parties, all nominally anti-Brexit, garnered over 52% of the popular vote.

While the Cons and Brexit Party between them are getting 45.6%.

The victory is there, but is justice or democracy?

Worth adding here, I'm just as opposed to false majorities of the middle or the left.
 
Did they though? Yes, they won a majority of constituencies.

But if you look at Labour, Lib-Dem, SNP and Green as being comparatively aligned albeit in different degrees and with varying points of emphasis; those parties, all nominally anti-Brexit, garnered over 52% of the popular vote.

While the Cons and Brexit Party between them are getting 45.6%.

The victory is there, but is justice or democracy?

Worth adding here, I'm just as opposed to false majorities of the middle or the left.

Well the thing is are we sure all the labour vote in leave areas was all remain supporters or people who just cant vote tory.

As the UK election poll Guru Sir Courtice said, Brexit is not a left and right issue as it has support across the political spectrum.

Also if we are going to call Johnson mandate into question what do we say about Trudeaus then XD

My logic is rather then saying "your mandate is illegitimate because I disagree with your politics but it's okay if your on my team" (not saying you are like that)

We should change the process overall to be fairer.
 
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True but if we are going to call Johnson mandate into question what do we say about Trudeaus then XD

Fair to a point, but Trudeau doesn't have a parliamentary majority, so the other parties should they be united in their opposition can vote anything down.

That is not true in the case of Johnson in the UK.

If you had noted Trudeau's previous electoral result, we'd be in complete agreement, as that was a false majority, which are quite (regrettably) common in Canadian politics.
 
Of note:


Blundering fool, or shrewdness that erects a facade to mislead his opponents?

How has he pulled all this off? His critics argue that he has cynically become the British Trump, whipping up xenophobia and ugly racism, lying with abandon, and reinventing the British Tory party as a hard-right populist engine for the worst instincts of the deplorable masses. He is now attacked as a racist and reckless Little Englander, gleefully wrecking the British economy, polarizing the country, and threatening to break up the U.K.
solely to advance his own narcissistic ambitions. Shallow, lazy, incompetent, and bigoted, this clown has somehow leveraged the fears of the many to advance the only thing he has ever genuinely believed in: his own destiny.

But there is another story to be told about him: that he has been serious all along, using his humor and ridiculousness to camouflage political instincts that have, in fact, been sharper than his peers’. He sensed the shifting populist tides of the 2010s before most other leading politicians did and grasped the Brexit issue as a path to power. But he also understood how important it was not to be fully captured by that raw xenophobic energy. He saw Brexit discontent as something the political Establishment needed to engage and co-opt rather than dismiss and demonize, and he approached the opportunity in a very different way from his sometime ally Nigel Farage, whose provincial extremism veered into outright racism and whose political career Johnson has now all but ended.
As a longtime liberal Tory, Boris, as he’s invariably called in the press and by the public, saw the deep unpopularity of his party’s legacy of fiscal austerity and the need to shift left in economic and social policy. So he is quietly forging a new conservatism — appealing to the working poor and aspiring middle classes, tough on immigration and crime, but much more generous in spending on hospitals and schools and science. Or so he says for now. And if he succeeds — by no means a sure thing, though at this point it almost seems foolish to bet against him — he won’t just be charting a new future for the U.K. but pioneering a path for other Western parties of the center right confronted by the rise of populist extremism.
As always, Johnson’s ideological flexibility was key — so much so that it led him to resist the more doctrinaire forces in his own party. As mayor, Johnson complained about the austerity measures of the Tory Cameron government. And as prime minister, he has immediately ramped up public spending on the police, schools, and hospitals. He shelved a previous proposal to lower the corporation tax and has focused on raising the income threshold at which Brits pay the equivalent of the Social Security tax and on raising the minimum wage nationwide. He has urged people to “Buy British” — a slogan anathema to market economics. Whether this is posturing or serious, no one knows exactly, but it sure is a sharp move rhetorically left for the Tories, away from the wealthy and austerity and toward the working poor and debt.
What struck me in these conversations is how little he seems to have changed over the years since I knew him — as if his emotional development were arrested in college. What’s different now is that a series of lies and betrayals has alienated many. “The British people are going to have the same experience with Boris that everyone who has known him have understood,” says the former ally. “They will feel hugely let down.”
 
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Boris was the mayor of one of the biggest cities in the world for two terms straight...

He is an Etonian but seems like a guy who can be on a episode of inbetweeners

Not shocked he was way more popular with the average person then with the media and twitter chattering classes.
 
Boris was the mayor of one of the biggest cities in the world for two terms straight...

He is an Etonian but seems like a guy who can be on a episode of inbetweeners

Not shocked he was way more popular with the average person then with the media and twitter chattering classes.

Everyone acts so shocked whenever a conservative wins an election. Their reaction would be funny if it wasn't so frightening.
 
Everyone acts so shocked whenever a conservative wins an election. Their reaction would be funny if it wasn't so frightening.

What? Who's everyone?

I'm not shocked. I'm perturbed and disappointed.

Perturbed and disappointed /= shocked.

Hey, I felt the same way when Ford and Kenney won their elections.

Ok, you know what, you got me....I was shocked when what's-his-name won the PEI election because it looked like the Greens had it.

You got me. :p

Also, to completely turn your idea on its head: if David Orchard had way-back-when won the leadership of hte PCs and then somehow magically went on to win a federal election I would have been happy and maybe shocked (!) but in a good way.
And actually, if Michael Chong had won the last Conservative leadership race and then won the GE, I would also have been rather glad.

Anyway, who's this "everyone"?
 
Just watched the movie Brexit. Don't know how much is true and how much is just entertainment but the narrative fits in with my tin-foil hat concern with the future of democracy in the new AI surveillance world order. The Brexit referendum was used as a test case to mine data for analysing voter behaviour and to advance methods of commodifying voters and microtargeting them to nudge voting intentions.

That's what is happening in democracies. The future of autocratic states is full and complete obedience in a perfectly controlled surveillance state. We have also probably lost all borderline autocractic countries as well. No more march towards freedom. Autocratic leadership voted in on either the right or left will be able to purchase functioning surveillance state systems that surpress all dissent in real time. Voting no longer becomes a check on power to be feared by those in power.
 
Just watched the movie Brexit. Don't know how much is true and how much is just entertainment but the narrative fits in with my tin-foil hat concern with the future of democracy in the new AI surveillance world order. The Brexit referendum was used as a test case to mine data for analysing voter behaviour and to advance methods of commodifying voters and microtargeting them to nudge voting intentions.

That's what is happening in democracies. The future of autocratic states is full and complete obedience in a perfectly controlled surveillance state. We have also probably lost all borderline autocractic countries as well. No more march towards freedom. Autocratic leadership voted in on either the right or left will be able to purchase functioning surveillance state systems that surpress all dissent in real time. Voting no longer becomes a check on power to be feared by those in power.


Yuuuup.

This isn't even a tin-foil cap level concern. It's quite real.
 

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