Neutrino
Senior Member
How is Ford being very socially conservative? He turfed Granic Allen.
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2018 Provincial Election Transit Promises
- Thread starter innsertnamehere
- Start date
How is Ford being very socially conservative? He turfed Granic Allen.
ndawgg
Active Member
He turfed her, but only after initially embracing her and her crazy platform. She was on the podium during his acceptance speech with his family. Also, one way he's being very socially conservative? That he vowed to scrap the sex ed curriculum. I'm sure if I googled for two minutes I could find other examples.
He turfed the candidate, but he's very much kept the ideas, even if he's tried to shove the more controversial parts under the rug in order to not upset the general electorate. His whole campaign is about saying as little as possible about anything of substance or anything remotely controversial, since he's not going to gain any new voters by opening his mouth, but he stands to lose a lot of voters if he talks too much about those social conservative issues. He also knows that he has the social conservative vote either way, so he doesn't need to pay lip service to them.
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
I think it's about time for us to talk about what an NDP government will mean for transit in the GTHA. Most of this thread has focused on the Liberals and PCs, but given the most recent polling showing the NDP opening up a 10 and 14 point lead over the PCs, we oughta be giving them some attention. According to the polling, the NDP will most likely be overseeing transit over the next four years.
Operational funding: The NDP has committed to funding 50% of the TTC's operational costs. This is something I strongly support, however I am concerned that this will just let the cost cutters at City Hall reduce the City's share of the subsidy. I hope that the NDP government is smart enough to have the City commit to providing a certain amount of funding, such that transit commuters will actually see a net benefit in their commutes, thanks to the additional provincial support
Relief Line South/North/West: The NDP has committed to building the "Relief Line", without specifying what exactly that means. We can logically conclude that they'd build at least the Relief Line South, but what about the other components? All we can do is speculate. I think that it is highly likely that they'll also fund the Relief Line North, if only because that's a project that the Liberals are sure to support it in their 2022 campaign.
Looking further into the future, let's not forget about the Relief Line West as well. Official word from Toronto City Planning is that they expect to begin planning work on the Relief Line West once planning work for Relief Line North is complete. Given the latest Relief Line North schedule, planning on Relief Line West should begin around 2022, which would be right at the beginning of the NDPs potential second term. What intrigues me about this proposal is that, because the Relief Line West will run through a lot of NDP-friendly ridings, the NDP would likely be more inclined than any of the other parties to support the Relief Line West. I would not be surprised to see an NDP government commit to this project in the 2022-2026 term, to shore up their support in these ridings.
Scarborough Subway Extension: Like all three parties, the NDP supports the SSE, although I'd say they're the least enthusiastic about the project. A Liberal or PC government would have been very likely to provide additional funding to cover cost overruns, but I'm not too sure that the NDP would be. This project would likely be at risk if it went over budget.
Sheppard East Transit: The Sheppard Subway expansion certainly isn't happening. The LRT is questionable as well, but I'd say that is also unlikely to move forward under the NDP government. That project won't be a big priority for them.
GO RER/SmartTrack: The NDP will maintain the Liberals plan on this
Hamilton, Hurontario LRTs: The NDP has said they would proceed with these projects
High Speed Rail: The NDP has committed to continue planning on the HSR. They haven't committed to actually building it. I feel like this project is highly unlikely to be fully completed by the NDP government. Perhaps it would be built only to London or Waterloo (if it's built at all)
Everything else: I feel like their support of other projects, including Yonge North, Waterfront Transit, Eglinton East LRT, Eglinton West LRT, is in question. The NDP hasn't ever specifically addressed these projects. The NDP does generally favour spending on social programs, over capital expansion, so I do fear that these projects would be on the back burner under the NDP government.
Overall, the NDP government would represent a positive continuation of the Liberal's transit plans. We should not see any stunning project cancelations if they form government. But the NDPs focus on social programs probably means that transit infrastructure won't develop as quickly as it would have under the Liberals. However, due to additional operational funding, the service quality provided by TTC, GO Transit and others should be a lot better than it is today.
Operational funding: The NDP has committed to funding 50% of the TTC's operational costs. This is something I strongly support, however I am concerned that this will just let the cost cutters at City Hall reduce the City's share of the subsidy. I hope that the NDP government is smart enough to have the City commit to providing a certain amount of funding, such that transit commuters will actually see a net benefit in their commutes, thanks to the additional provincial support
Relief Line South/North/West: The NDP has committed to building the "Relief Line", without specifying what exactly that means. We can logically conclude that they'd build at least the Relief Line South, but what about the other components? All we can do is speculate. I think that it is highly likely that they'll also fund the Relief Line North, if only because that's a project that the Liberals are sure to support it in their 2022 campaign.
Looking further into the future, let's not forget about the Relief Line West as well. Official word from Toronto City Planning is that they expect to begin planning work on the Relief Line West once planning work for Relief Line North is complete. Given the latest Relief Line North schedule, planning on Relief Line West should begin around 2022, which would be right at the beginning of the NDPs potential second term. What intrigues me about this proposal is that, because the Relief Line West will run through a lot of NDP-friendly ridings, the NDP would likely be more inclined than any of the other parties to support the Relief Line West. I would not be surprised to see an NDP government commit to this project in the 2022-2026 term, to shore up their support in these ridings.
Scarborough Subway Extension: Like all three parties, the NDP supports the SSE, although I'd say they're the least enthusiastic about the project. A Liberal or PC government would have been very likely to provide additional funding to cover cost overruns, but I'm not too sure that the NDP would be. This project would likely be at risk if it went over budget.
Sheppard East Transit: The Sheppard Subway expansion certainly isn't happening. The LRT is questionable as well, but I'd say that is also unlikely to move forward under the NDP government. That project won't be a big priority for them.
GO RER/SmartTrack: The NDP will maintain the Liberals plan on this
Hamilton, Hurontario LRTs: The NDP has said they would proceed with these projects
High Speed Rail: The NDP has committed to continue planning on the HSR. They haven't committed to actually building it. I feel like this project is highly unlikely to be fully completed by the NDP government. Perhaps it would be built only to London or Waterloo (if it's built at all)
Everything else: I feel like their support of other projects, including Yonge North, Waterfront Transit, Eglinton East LRT, Eglinton West LRT, is in question. The NDP hasn't ever specifically addressed these projects. The NDP does generally favour spending on social programs, over capital expansion, so I do fear that these projects would be on the back burner under the NDP government.
Overall, the NDP government would represent a positive continuation of the Liberal's transit plans. We should not see any stunning project cancelations if they form government. But the NDPs focus on social programs probably means that transit infrastructure won't develop as quickly as it would have under the Liberals. However, due to additional operational funding, the service quality provided by TTC, GO Transit and others should be a lot better than it is today.
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innsertnamehere
Superstar
Yonge North, Waterfront LRT, etc. have capital funding coming from the feds. It's what Wynne is proposing to use to pay for them. I imagine that the NDP will follow a similar path.
The NDP generally have a pretty similar platform to the liberals for transit, but with the operating subsidies included.
The NDP generally have a pretty similar platform to the liberals for transit, but with the operating subsidies included.
raptor
Senior Member
Great summary, thank you. Just don't fool yourself, the Liberals aren't developing infrastructure quickly by any measure.
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
Are you implying that the Feds committed to funding 100% of those projects? That was not my understanding of the situation.
syn
Senior Member
Good summary. I think the SSE is in danger if the costs balloon to a new level after all the elections are over. The other projects you mention could be in danger too, but I think most will be on track.
Transit does have a significant 'social' component to it, so generally speaking I think we'll see a continuation of the Liberal's transit plans.
innsertnamehere
Superstar
No, but Wynne's announcement of funding as more than just an election promise, it was a formal allocation. Of course a new party could change the allocation, but that would require discussion with the feds, and would look rather poor if Horwath wiped the provincial portion of the funding away.
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
Ahh, I understand. In that case I'd say YNSE and the other projects I mentioned are pretty save. Is this arrangement true of the DRL funding as well?
Allandale25
Senior Member
@TheTigerMaster helpful summary. The only thing I'd mention on GO RER, and even LRT for that matter, is that the NDP platform (I don't have it in front of me to provide a page number) talks about more public ownership.
I wonder if this would delay GO RER given Metrolinx has already sent out the RFQ and were going to release the RFP in October 2018.
I wonder if this would delay GO RER given Metrolinx has already sent out the RFQ and were going to release the RFP in October 2018.
OneCity
Senior Member
If the SSE in danger, don't count on much else in the way of subway being built as the chaos would just be starting. And we can likely expect seamless LRT or subway line(s) to be built at twice the cost in the future due to delays.
And that's saying the NDP cave to these usual vocal minority unions and special interest groups in Toronto. Would be interesting to say the least
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TheTigerMaster
Superstar
I'm not as familiar as I should be with the RER procurement process. But my understanding is that the RER project has been divided into a lot of smaller contracts, rather than one large design/build/maintain contract (as we see with the Crosstown). I would not expect the NDP to cancel any contracts that have already been signed, but they'll probably not be signing any more. Whatever remains to be signed will be built/operated/maintained by public workers.
innsertnamehere
Superstar
NDP do want to eliminate the AFP process that the liberals have created. And if you ask me, that is fine. It does nothing but slow projects down and make them more expensive.
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
On the other hand, eliminating AFP would make projects more susceptible to cancelation. The Eglinton West cancellation would (likely) not have happened if it was procured this way. And Finch West LRT would easily be canceled, had it not been for AFP.