A New Bay Street?

[taal]

With all the doom and gloom, not to worry..The big ones are coming...45 Bay, BAC-2, BCE-3, Bay Adelaide-3 etc...

I really don't think we'll see any of thoes Not this soon, but I'm hopeful.

But anything seem familiar with all those projects ? They're all in the core! As I said that area is likely going to be OK for many many years.

It's the rest of Toronto! btw - if someone wants to tell me that this is completely normal and all cities go through this sort of thing i.e. where commercial development stops in the outer parts of the city and spreads to the suburbs please go right ahead! Maybe there are examples of this elsewhere and were just following a trend. If it does come down to taxes though I think we're in unique position as the difference between the 905 and 416 is just the large unfortunetly.

 

[Irishmonk]

The new "Bay Street" will likely be in Calgary.

 

[old boy]

The new "Bay Street" will likely be in Calgary.

Not a chance, but an interesting name for a street in Cowtown.

 

[Hipster Duck]

If a new Bay street will ever appear, I am almost certain it would be west of the existing downtown. While some projects get built in downtown east - and King St. East is pretty trendy- it really is the west end's poorer cousin. Property values and the interest in investing in new development drops off a cliff once you cross Jarvis.

 

[TrickyRicky]

The short answer to the question is Bay Street is Bay street and there will never in our life-times be a new Bay street in Toronto or Calgary or anywhere else in this country.

On office construction trends I really think the primary driver of growth is the wider demographic trends. Government policy (such as by-law and taxation) has some influence but really that is just surface stuff. Office growth goes where the population growth in people who work at that kind of office is.

It is no coincidence that new office construction downtown is coinciding with a surge of high income individuals moving to the central city.

It is no coincidence that new office construction is stagnant in areas of the old suburbs where middle-class people are leaving.

It is no coincidence that new offices are being built in areas of the new suburbs where the middle-class population is surging, particular offices where people who have middle-class office jobs would work.

It is no coincidence that head office locations in the suburbs coincide with the location of residential enclaves of suburban high income earners.

 

[CITY_LOVER]

Not a chance, but an interesting name for a street in Cowtown.

And here's the problem with many Torontonians! Why do you say there's not a chance? I'm living in Calgary right now and you would be surprised at how 'powerful' (in the corporate, office space absorption sense) the core is. Even the downtown mall of Calgary is huge with the Holt Renfrew being bigger than Toronto's on Bloor.

Don't dismiss other places' rise and to me, that's both Calgary and Missisauga (yes, to a degree this city is benefitting quite a bit at the expense of Toronto!).

In Toronto, Bay Street will always be that 'top' street, which symbolizes the financial sector of Toronto, and additionally, from what I know, it seems to have the largest number of skyscrapers in Canada (i.e. no other single street has more skyscrapers that Bay Street).

I am actually curious to see what % of Canada's top 500, 1000 or 1500 corporations are located in downtown Toronto vs downtown Calgary. I have a feeling it's the latter that may have more. From a physical/visual perspective, Calgary has more office towers that are 30 stories or more than Toronto, meaning it has the most in Canada. If you don't believe me, please check the lists online (I'm not going to bother looking it up and posting them here).

And no, I'm not anti-Toronto! I love Toronto and hence my presence on UrbanToronto! In fact, I'm planning to move to Toronto early next year.

But the reality of Toronto must be stated! Its office market (in the 416) and its public transit are less than stellar from my perspective.

Taal, I completely agree with everything you've said about the office market (the core is OK at best, the outer 416 sucks and the 905 has seen benefitted a little too much at Toronto's expense).

I also agree with the 'musical chairs' of companies downtown comment - there seems to be little new growth in the core's office market; so far it seems more like companies moving from one of the older buildings to one of the newer ones.....(Telus being the exception).

 

[js97]

If you go across the border and take a look at how Manhattan has developed... Wall street is still the only street that people associate with 'wealth' and capitalism.

That being said, many, many hedgfunds and boutique to medium size firms have taken over midtown manhattan. Morgan Stanley (or bank of america) has moved it's main office across the river to Jersey.

I think you'll see similiar movements in Toronto (as it has been happening for the last 15 years) Yonge and Shepperd, /North York Centre (uptown)?

Markham and Missauga have popped up many new developments.


RE: Growth in wealth and head office locations.

There was a study a few years back (2006) that showed a high degree of correspondence between the proximity of head offices around the NYC area and the homes of their CEOs.

So yes, where the bosses decide to live does influence where the busineses establish their offices and vice versa.

Just follow the money!

p.S. Calgary's boom is associated with Oil, somewhat of an unsustainable industry. LIke the gold rush cities, you'll eventually run out of oil,and so will the jobs and money that follow it.

Take American cities that have boomed and sustained their growht. SFO and west coast- tech industry. Chicago - Commodities exchange, NYC - financial market.


A city like Philly and Pittsburg, which originally boomed as 'blue' collar manufacturing cities, have re-invented themselves in a mixture of financial, pharmacutical (all the major Pharma head quarters are in philly), and biotech reserach industries (Pittsburg).

When the Tar Sands run out for Alberta and Calgary, how and if, will Calgary re-invent themselves?

 

[MisterF]

It's ocurring to me that if the office vacancy rate has stayed stable in the last couple years then the "musical chairs" you guys are talking about is imaginary.

And here's the problem with many Torontonians! Why do you say there's not a chance? I'm living in Calgary right now and you would be surprised at how 'powerful' (in the corporate, office space absorption sense) the core is. Even the downtown mall of Calgary is huge with the Holt Renfrew being bigger than Toronto's on Bloor.

Don't dismiss other places' rise and to me, that's both Calgary and Missisauga (yes, to a degree this city is benefitting quite a bit at the expense of Toronto!).

In Toronto, Bay Street will always be that 'top' street, which symbolizes the financial sector of Toronto, and additionally, from what I know, it seems to have the largest number of skyscrapers in Canada (i.e. no other single street has more skyscrapers that Bay Street).

I am actually curious to see what % of Canada's top 500, 1000 or 1500 corporations are located in downtown Toronto vs downtown Calgary. I have a feeling it's the latter that may have more. From a physical/visual perspective, Calgary has more office towers that are 30 stories or more than Toronto, meaning it has the most in Canada. If you don't believe me, please check the lists online (I'm not going to bother looking it up and posting them here).

And no, I'm not anti-Toronto! I love Toronto and hence my presence on UrbanToronto! In fact, I'm planning to move to Toronto early next year.

But the reality of Toronto must be stated! Its office market (in the 416) and its public transit are less than stellar from my perspective.

Taal, I completely agree with everything you've said about the office market (the core is OK at best, the outer 416 sucks and the 905 has seen benefitted a little too much at Toronto's expense).

I also agree with the 'musical chairs' of companies downtown comment - there seems to be little new growth in the core's office market; so far it seems more like companies moving from one of the older buildings to one of the newer ones.....(Telus being the exception).

The Fortune Global 500 has 11 companies in Canada. 7 of those companies are based in Toronto (8 if you count Aurora) and one is based in Calgary. Very few cities in the world have a concentration of Fortune 500 companies like downtown Toronto. Downtown Toronto has a lot more office space - 77 million sq ft compared to 32 million (2004 numbers). And Calgary's office space is more concentrated downtown than it is in Toronto. If you compared the two metro areas you'd see just how much Toronto dwarfs Calgary in the corporate world.

The city's policy of reducing commercial taxes and raising residential taxes is aimed at attracting business. Hopefully that won't be sacrificed under the new mayor.

 

[DarnDirtyApe]

I work in the investment industry, so I do have experience with how geography is perceived by people in the business.

Barring something out of left field (like a massive change in commuter rail lines and destinations away from Union station) the Financial District is going to remain the prime office site in the GTA. Bay Street itself is already not as important as it once was with new developments in the area so things are spreading out, but if you guys think North York or Missisauga will become anything more than where back-office support is located then you're deluding yourselves. There are huge advantages to being located downtown - transportation, the PATH, proximity to support services like law firms, fancy restaurants - and the only advantage to being anywhere else is cost and maybe a short commute for the lucky few who live nearby. Anyone else loses the benefit of the subway or GO train, and anyone with in-demand skills is liable to just quit if a company tries to move offices. Most of the high-level executives I know either live in a nice neighbourhood in Toronto or sometimes Oakville. Mississauga or York Region are for the poor schmucks who can't afford a house in the city.

Just to give you a sense of perspective, an office on Bloor Street is reasonable but considered far away because it requires a cab or subway ride. An office at say Yonge & Eglinton implies that a company is a two-bit operation and doesn't care about being isolated from the rest of the industry. Even non-PATH accessible office space is a big minus because most people expect to be able to go to a meeting without putting on your winter garb.

 

[Markster]

Most of the high-level executives I know either live in a nice neighbourhood in Toronto or sometimes Oakville.

Random question:
How do the ones out in Oakville generally get into the core?
GO Train? Drive? Chauffeur?

 

[DarnDirtyApe]

I think the driver/livery cab is a NYC thing, I've never heard of anyone (aside from politicians) who actually do this. Of course I don't know everyone so I'm generalizing.

 

[CN Tower]

It's ocurring to me that if the office vacancy rate has stayed stable in the last couple years then the "musical chairs" you guys are talking about is imaginary.

Is this imaginary?

Ashley Csanady July 30, 2010 – 6:00 am

Read more: http://news.nationalpost.com/2010/07/30/downtown-office-vacancy-rate-up-study/#ixzz18yDPcuzP
The worst of the recession may be over, but in the first half of 2010 office rental vacancies in Toronto’s downtown core hit double digits for the first time in five years, says a report released on Thursday by Avison Young, Canada’s largest independently owned commercial real-estate company.

The vacancy rate in the downtown core climbed to 10.3% from 7.6% this time last year, while the GTA’s vacancy rate rose to 11.3% from 9.6% a year ago. Downtown Toronto offers 70 million of the city’s 170 million total square feet of office space.


Read more: http://news.nationalpost.com/2010/07/30/downtown-office-vacancy-rate-up-study/#ixzz18yCCC9bq

 

[CITY_LOVER]

The Fortune Global 500 has 11 companies in Canada. 7 of those companies are based in Toronto (8 if you count Aurora) and one is based in Calgary. Very few cities in the world have a concentration of Fortune 500 companies like downtown Toronto. Downtown Toronto has a lot more office space - 77 million sq ft compared to 32 million (2004 numbers). And Calgary's office space is more concentrated downtown than it is in Toronto. If you compared the two metro areas you'd see just how much Toronto dwarfs Calgary in the corporate world.

Hi, thanks for the stats, however, I was actually asking how many of CANADA'S top 500, 1000 companies or the ones trading on the TSX are located in downtown Calgary only vs downtown Toronto only (i.e. not metro Calgary vs metro Toronto). I know Toronto's power is several times higher than Calgary's but with the population being five times higher (metro areas), Calgary is still ahead in per capita terms (and the gap is widening). Another point to note is that Toronto has 75-80 million square feet of office space but Calgary's downtown including what they call "beltline" (think West of Uni, East of Yonge type situation), along with the construction that has taken place in the last five years, actually has 45-47 million square feet of office space (meaning Toronto downtown only has 60% more office space than Calgary downtown).

The fact that you say to look at metro areas instead of downtowns is my main point, in that, the non-downtown areas (almost exclusively 905) have added office space at a far faster clip than what we all would like to see - downtown, especially buildings connected to the PATH!

I remember reading somewhere that in the 1990s the GTA had added absorbed 27 million square feet of office space but I have a feeling only 4-5 million of that was in the downtown - imagine having even 10 million of that in the core instead - imagine the synergy, the energy, the new skyscrapers, the skyline, the power....

Bay Street itself is already not as important as it once was with new developments in the area so things are spreading out, but if you guys think North York or Missisauga will become anything more than where back-office support is located then you're deluding yourselves. There are huge advantages to being located downtown - transportation, the PATH, proximity to support services like law firms, fancy restaurants - and the only advantage to being anywhere else is cost and maybe a short commute for the lucky few who live nearby. Anyone else loses the benefit of the subway or GO train, and anyone with in-demand skills is liable to just quit if a company tries to move offices. Most of the high-level executives I know either live in a nice neighbourhood in Toronto or sometimes Oakville. Mississauga or York Region are for the poor schmucks who can't afford a house in the city.

Yes, Bay Street is not as prominent I completely agree with the advantages of being downtown, particularly if connected to the PATH and we all want that, however, much of the new office growth has been in the outer areas - not just back-office, even mid range and Head office ones - I know, 'cause I have been looking for accounting/finance jobs on many different sites and most of them (asides from banking and insurance) are not in the downtown core! It's interesting that you say the high-level executives want their offices where they live and that makes sense theoretically, i guess, but is that the reality? I doubt it because if it was true wouldn't the mid-town office markets (along Yonge from Bloor to Steeles) have seen more absorption that what they have so far (given so many of Toronto's old money neighbourhoods are just off of Yonge north of Bloor)? As well, there is actually a subway line along Yonge and still we don't see new office absorption in these mid town markets.

A personal disclaimer (again) in order to prevent bashing and hatred: I like Toronto and am planning to move there so I'm not against anything in Toronto; I want the GTA, particularly the City of Toronto, to prosper! I bring up Calgary because I think it's more powerful than people in the East like to admit and what gets me is the denial of the fact that it could become a serious contender to Toronto's numero uno position (let's not be like the sleeping hare)!

 

[CN Tower]

A personal disclaimer (again) in order to prevent bashing and hatred: I like Toronto and am planning to move there so I'm not against anything in Toronto; I want the GTA, particularly the City of Toronto, to prosper! I bring up Calgary because I think it's more powerful than people in the East like to admit and what gets me is the denial of the fact that it could become a serious contender to Toronto's numero uno position (let's not be like the sleeping hare)!

Toronto is 6x the size of Calgary my friend. 6x. That's a lot of catching up to do.

I heart Calgary by the way but facts is facts.

 

[DarnDirtyApe]

I think perhaps there are two different conversations going on:
- Is Bay street (or downtown) still the most prominent location for business?
- Where is most office development happening?

Answers to these two questions are not mutually exclusive - in other words, one could say the answer is YES to the first question, but argue that future growth in terms of square feet of office space will happen in the suburbs. In terms of the financial industry, there is no sign that the influence of the Financial District is waning even though many companies are exporting jobs to lower-cost areas.

In terms of office location, generally it seems to boil down to either downtown - transit access, proximity - or the 905 - cost. Somewhere like mid-town is not convenient for anyone who takes GO, and the tax rates are just as high so costs are not sufficiently lower to justify not being downtown.