Next Mayor of Toronto?

[Automation Gallery]

The province has given hundreds of millions of dollars to Toronto every year. Eventually Toronto is going to be cut off. I just hope that Miller doesn't attempt the most-painful-cuts-possible approach that he tried during the land transfer tax debate.

McGuinty to Miller: I'm just not that into you

As much as Mr. Miller might have enjoyed the Premier's company, he might have also had his eye on Mr. McGuinty's chequebook. His government made an early gesture of goodwill by sharing a portion of the provincial gas tax with municipalities. In the ensuing years, they've shown much enthusiasm for joint initiatives with the city, particularly on transit. They committed to reclaim some of the costs for social services that Mike Harris's Conservatives foisted upon municipalities in the 1990s. And time and again, they bailed out the city at budget time by allocating one-off, nine-figure sums to allow it to balance its books.

Now, after six years of letting the money flow, it appears Mr. McGuinty may finally turn off the tap. There is every reason to believe Mr. Miller will return, cap in hand, in 2010; even if he wins major concessions from city workers in the current labour dispute, Toronto will likely be hundreds of millions of dollars in the hole.

But the early message from Queen's Park is that he'll be turned away. The official reason is that it's cash-poor, an estimated $18.5-billion in the red.

More......http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...ler-im-just-not-that-into-you/article1229510/

McGuinty and Miller adrift

"Dalton McGuinty, no street fighter, does not throw punches. But the sense one gets from talking to those around him is that next winter, when Mr. Miller makes his usual plea for provincial assistance to make up the city's budgetary shortfall, the Ontario Premier might do something far more damaging to Mr. Miller. He might turn his back on him.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/mcguinty-and-miller-adrift/article1230505/

 

[kEiThZ]

PUBLICATION: GLOBE AND MAIL
DATE: 2009.07.29
PAGE: A14
SECTION: Editorial
EDITION: Metro
WORDS: 491
WORD COUNT: 503

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TORONTO STRIKE Fiscal ills not yet settled

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The concessions that the Mayor of Toronto, David Miller, has apparently won from municipal workers would have been moderately impressive if they had been announced six weeks ago. Coming instead after a lengthy work stoppage that was billed as a necessary step toward getting the city's finances in order, the concessions seem inadequate.

The real work of reining in the city's costs lies ahead, and Mr.

Miller may not be the mayor to do that.

Torontonians should question why they were forced to spend much of the summer without garbage collection, daycare and other services, for what they received in return. Reports of the deals between the city and CUPE locals 79 and 416 (which will not be released until ratified by union members) suggest that workers will be able to continue the controversial practice of carrying over sick days from year to year, and cashing them out upon retirement; only new hires will be precluded from doing so. Workers' pay will apparently be increased by 2 per cent in each of the next three years - not the 3 per cent the union had sought, but a generous sum in the current economy. It is debatable whether employees would have gone longer than a month without pay, if this offer had been made to them in June.

Employers and unions alike typically overstate their demands in order to leave room for compromise. But Mr. Miller seemed for most of the strike to be holding out for more than the modest cost containment he achieved. Rather than waiting out the union, Mr. Miller appeared this week to lose his nerve.

In a sense, that may prove to be a blessing, since a complete "victory" for Mr. Miller might have created an illusion that the city's finances were under control. In reality, Toronto would still likely have faced a shortfall of several hundred million dollars next budget season, as it does most years.

That is not entirely Mr. Miller's fault; the city has had difficulty meeting its bottom line since the amalgamation of municipalities and downloading of provincial services in the 1990s. But particularly given the reluctance of the provincial government to continue providing annual bail-outs now that it faces a large deficit of its own, the city must begin taking responsibility.

More than just restricting a few union perks, that means examining every facet of how it does business. Where might services be contracted out, and how much could be saved that way? Are there assets that could be sold? Are there some services or other expenditures the city could do without altogether? Does it need to find new ways to raise revenues, under increased taxation powers granted by the province? With the exception of tax increases, these are not questions Mr. Miller seems eager to consider. If he wishes to keep his job beyond next year's municipal election, he will need to begin doing so.

 

[kEiThZ]

^ Combine that with this article:

http://www.urbantoronto.ca/showpost.php?p=297117&postcount=626

Miller's got the fight of his political life coming fairly soon.

 

[Solaris]

I truly home Miller doesn't have any "fight of his political life" next year ... he should just be thrown out of office ........ PERIOD

 

[unimaginative2]

If we do have a new mayor (I have problems with Miller but he's had a fair number of accomplishments), the last place they should come from is city council. Karen Stintz would make June Rowlands look like a dynamo. I'd support George Smitherman in a heartbeat.

 

[TonyV]

A former Miller supporter, I sort of think that Miller is toast because of the perceptions out there of his handling of the garbage strike. Torontonians will remember that, and politicians will take opportunities with it. In the next race, he could conceivably lose to Smitherman. And I do hope George runs, actually.

I can think of some good things to say about Miller -- a basically good person, but a lousy politician. He has made simply too many tactical blunders over two terms. What the hell, I may as well add my own politics to this -- Miller has surrounded himself with just too many soft-at-the-centre types who don't get much done in life; I've had it to the teeth with those ones. Call me slightly leftist but never really pink.

If you're going to elect (and "hire") a politician, make sure that he or she is exactly that --- a politician! George S. surely is one, and I have confidence that he would always keep the interests of Toronto very close to heart.

 

[lordmandeep]

Lol Dalton will not turn his back to the city.

He will turn his back against Miller and let him hang dry.

Dalton likely has a good shot at winning the next provincial race and if it were not for the HST it would be certain.

 

[ShonTron]

A former Miller supporter, I sort of think that Miller is toast because of the perceptions out there of his handling of the garbage strike. Torontonians will remember that, and politicians will take opportunities with it. In the next race, he could conceivably lose to Smitherman. And I do hope George runs, actually.

The way the strike went, Miller is totally f**ked (an opinion shared even amongst some very loyal supporters) . The only problem is finding a reasonable centrist/progressive to run in his place. Smitherman is not that likely.

Thompson is the best of a rather poor lot of right/centre councillors who have made noise of running.

 

[adma]

Thompson is the best of a rather poor lot of right/centre councillors who have made noise of running.

Maybe a reason why he hasn't been mentioned enough in this thread (besides the fact that he's in the Scarboonies rather than fashionably "downtown" a la Smitherman) is that he hasn't made enough more or less explicit noise--and I feel that's deliberate on his part.

Also remember: unlike Stintz or Denzil, he's Liberal, not Conservative...

 

[kettal]

Thompson seems to have a quote in every newspaper article for the past year.

 

[Riverdale Rink Rat]

Miller. Book it.

I'm willing to bet that our next mayor is the current mayor, as per my post on the strike. In fact, I'll be interested to see if any of the people who keep getting put up as possibles (Stintz, Minnan-Wong, Tory) even declare.

Smitherman might, but I think he wants more -- i.e. the Premiership when Dalton steps down.

The only way I'm wrong is if a talented, polished right wing candidate comes out of the business community with the support of Porter Air and the hotel/real estate industry. Pecault? A law firm rainmaker?

 

[lordmandeep]

Dalton appears is staying for the long haul...

He will stay a long time and leave on a high note and we will remember him as being alright like Chretien. Once a politician sticks around for like 10+ years, the public just get use to him and say he is okay.

 

[Eug]

I can think of some good things to say about Miller -- a basically good person, but a lousy politician. He has made simply too many tactical blunders over two terms. What the hell, I may as well add my own politics to this -- Miller has surrounded himself with just too many soft-at-the-centre types who don't get much done in life; I've had it to the teeth with those ones. Call me slightly leftist but never really pink.

That's a reasonable description of me and my feelings on the issue too.

P.S. Having grown up in Saskatchewan, the birthplace of the NDP, I'm constantly appalled by just how fiscally irresponsible NDP and quasi-NDP (aka Miller) governments can be here in Ontario.

 

[Eug]

I've been hearing/reading a few assessments in the media about the next mayoral race.

It's kinda funny... in a sad way... of the "support" Miller is getting. The anti-Miller types are saying Miller is completely finished, whereas others are saying Miller may still win. Why could Miller win? Well, not because he's any good, and not because Torontonians respect him. It's because the right leaning candidates suck even worse than he does.

That pretty much reflects what most people here are saying too. Even the previously pro-Miller people here are suggesting Miller can win the next election, because all the potential competitors royally suck, just not as much as Miller does.

 

[kEiThZ]

I just don't understand Miller's game plan here. Maybe somebody who knows better can explain it to me.

The city's possibly up to half a billion in the hole next year but he portrays a concession that reduces a 250 million dollar liability over the next decade or so (till all the grandfathered oldies retire) as a victory? Does he just automatically assume that the province will always come through with a 300-500 million dollar bailout every year?

And I don't even know if he can try the shenanigans he did before of trying to make the cuts as painful as possible. That would be suicidal in an election year. So what was his game plan to cut costs? Given that labour was the biggest chunk of city expenditures, how does he plan on even making a symbolic show of fiscal restraint (enough to satisfy voters and justify a provincial bailout)?