News from the Middle East

[Full Metal Junkie]

Here ya go. Also the photo of the missile doing a u-turn in the air speaks for itself.

Failed Iranian air defences. Unfortunately, a failed rocket body can do quite a lot of damage with fuel still onboard.

Okay, I just have to address this disinformation even though its off-topic for this thread. The social media are full of people rallying around the flag of their choosing and cheering on their respective team, spreading whatever disinformation that suits the narrative that they want to believe in. The photo of the Iranian missile making a U-turn is part of that disinformation campaign.

GeoConfirmed - world's most reputable and most accurate OSINT team for geolocation of footage in warzones - has debunked this already. The failed Iranian launch occurred 1300 km away from the school and could not have hit it no matter how much you want to Blame Iran for everything.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2027859937842393278

The school bombing is most likely the result of US and Israel airstrikes. The school was right next to an IRGC compound. Still, that's not an excuse for such collateral damage.

 

[kEiThZ]

Okay, I just have to address this disinformation even though its off-topic for this thread. The social media are full of people rallying around the flag of their choosing and cheering on their respective team, spreading whatever disinformation that suits the narrative that they want to believe in. The photo of the Iranian missile making a U-turn is part of that disinformation campaign.

GeoConfirmed - world's most reputable and most accurate OSINT team for geolocation of footage in warzones - has debunked this already. The failed Iranian launch occurred 1300 km away from the school and could not have hit it no matter how much you want to Blame Iran for everything.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2027859937842393278

The school bombing is most likely the result of US and Israel airstrikes. The school was right next to an IRGC compound. Still, that's not an excuse for such collateral damage.

Fair. Like I said I don't rule out mistakes. They happen in war.

I don't accept the insinuation that this was somehow deliberate though.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

Fair. Like I said I don't rule out mistakes. They happen in war.
I don't accept the insinuation that this was somehow deliberate though.

It's a costly mistake. Human tragedy aside, making such a mistake on day one of the operations is a sure way to fall behind in media narratives and lose in the court of public opinions. They needed to have come out and owned up to the school strike. Take the responsibility, don't try to sweep it under the rug.

 

[wopchop]

The school bombing is most likely the result of US and Israel airstrikes. The school was right next to an IRGC compound. Still, that's not an excuse for such collateral damage.

BBC yesterday was reporting the school is about 600m from the base, so right next door not exactly but certainly close.

It is important because the language being used in reporting (right next door) attaches a context to the incident that can be used to deflect blame for errors.

Here ya go. Also the photo of the missile doing a u-turn in the air speaks for itself.

This doesn't really prove anything. It just a photo and a bunch of random influencers talking?

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

BBC yesterday was reporting the school is about 600m from the base, so right next door not exactly but certainly close.

I'll let @kEiThZ weigh in on this, but something tells me that the Circular Error Probable of the munitions being dropped by US and Israel is a lot smaller than 600m. As in, you don't miss by that much with the precision-guided munitions (unless it's a freak malfunction, partial interception, or its guidance system got jammed and it veered off course).

 

[kEiThZ]

I'll let @kEiThZ weigh in on this, but something tells me that the Circular Error Probable of the munitions being dropped by US and Israel is a lot smaller than 600m. As in, you don't miss by that much with the precision-guided munitions (unless it's a freak malfunction, partial interception, or its guidance system got jammed and it veered off course).

I'll use basic arithmetic to illustrate a point. 1 in 60 rule:

In air navigation, the 1 in 60 rule is a rule of thumb which states that if a pilot has traveled sixty miles then an error in track of one mile is approximately a 1° error in heading, and proportionately more for larger errors.

So one of the issues that can happen is that a stuck fin at launch few miles out can absolutely end up hitting something hundreds of metres away. It's actually a problem we have inside Canada. There are weapons we have where a malfunction is the difference between landing inside the Cold Lake Air Weapons Range (which is 11 700 square kilometres) and downtown Edmonton or Calgary hundreds of kilometres away. There's obviously strict rules on doing this stuff at home which tend to be eased during wartime. But even say a 1 in 10 000 failure rate might end up with bad bingo.

A deliberate situation is very difficult. Generally when target lists are drawn up, things like schools, mosques, hospitals, museums, etc are marked on something called a No Strike List (NSL) or a Restricted Strike List (RSL). Hitting NSL outside of an imminent threat is somewhere between end of career to court martial. Hitting RSL without similar justification is almost the same. When it's deliberate targets, military facilities, industry, etc. these are actually vetted with a JAG lawyer in the room to make sure that known international law is not intentionally violated. So the only way we end up in this kind of horrific situation where something is fired at a school full of kids is 1) somehow all the intellligence failed to put this school on the RSL or NSL. or 2) Pilot thinks they saw a launch from there or believed they were fired on from there and fired back. Kinda like the very first casualties we took in Afghanistan.

I know there's this idea among the left that military folks are callous bastards who love to kill. But I assure you that nobody in uniform wants a lifetime of PTSD and guilt that will come with knowing they killed a single kid, let alone several. I know quite a few soldiers, including and ex-CO of mine, who suffered tremendously from watching kids killed in Afghanistan. And without exception they all said they wished they had died in place of those kids (none actually killed a kid, just witnessed it). Several attempted suicide after.

 

[narduch]

After what they've done in Gaza, Israel doesn't get the benefit of doubt anymore when it comes to civilian casualties

 

[T3G]

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

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I suppose you prefer the types of genocides where 30K+ people are gunned down in the street, but the buildings remain intact? Like Iran did to their own people less than two months ago? Good on ya, you have a taste in genocides.
I, for one, don't like any genocides and would like to see people responsible for them burn in hell. And that includes Netanyahu. But if he and Trump take out the Maduros, Khameneis, and Putins of this world before they themselves are served justice, I won't be the one complaining.

 

[T3G]

I, for one, don't like any genocides and would like to see people responsible for them burn in hell.

Can you please quote the post of mine where I suggested that I feel differently?

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

Can you please quote the post of mine where I suggested that I feel differently?

Apologies, I just assumed by the whataboutist "but what about Gaza?" tweet you reposted.

Did you know that not only Israel is deeply concerned about Iran breaking the international law, but also Putin (as he is bombing Ukrainian civilians) is deeply concerned that the US might have broken the international law by attacking Iran?

There's enough hypocrisy in geopolitics for everyone's taste.

 

[T3G]

Apologies, I just assumed by the whataboutist "but what about Gaza?" tweet you reposted.

Did you know that not only Israel is deeply concerned about Iran breaking the international law, but also Putin (as he is bombing Ukrainian civilians) is deeply concerned that the US might have broken the international law by attacking Iran?


There's enough hypocrisy in geopolitics for everyone's taste.

No, I don't have an iota of understanding for Iran either, I think they're all sickening hypocrites. The entire world order is based on "atrocities are bad if they're done by our ideological enemies, but they're fine if it's our people that do them". I just hate to see any kind of argument about democracy being trotted out, since what we're seeing here, on all sides, is less concern for democracy and more a bunch of wild animals fighting it out and seeing who can cause the most destruction.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

No, I don't have an iota of understanding for Iran either, I think they're all sickening hypocrites. The entire world order is based on "atrocities are bad if they're done by our ideological enemies, but they're fine if it's our people that do them". I just hate to see any kind of argument about democracy being trotted out, since what we're seeing here, on all sides, is less concern for democracy and more a bunch of wild animals fighting it out and seeing who can cause the most destruction.

If the people of Iran want democracy, they will have to fight for it themselves. No one in history has achieved democracy by bombs alone. But at least the people of Iran are being given a chance to fight for something better than the murderous oppressive theocratic dictatorship they lived in for the past 40-odd years. Up to them what they do with that chance.

Sadly, I think the US will be contempt with turning Iran into Libya 2.0. A failed state in a perpetual civil war will suit them just fine - another pro-Chinese chess piece taken off the board.

But having spoken to a few Iranian immigrants, I have hopes that the Iranian people will prevail in this.

 

[kEiThZ]

But having spoken to a few Iranian immigrants, I have hopes that the Iranian people will prevail in this.

I'm a little skeptical of diaspora bias. Especially from those who fled the regime.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

I'm a little skeptical of diaspora bias. Especially from those who fled the regime.

Yeah, I'm aware of the bias. That's why I said I have hopes. I hope they are right and there is a chance enough Iranians rise up, however small that chance is.