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GM and Chrysler Pushing for Merger

I don't even understand how GM going bankrupt would suddenly force all of the various factories & plants to evaporate. We have bankruptcy protection for a reason. The company would be given time to restructure, renegotiate labor contracts, secure new financing and amputate the it's less successful divisions, in the meantime people would still be employed.

Hipster Duck's point is accurate as well. American cars are hardly "American" to begin with. What exactly is the difference between Toyota assembling a Corrola in Cambridge and GM assembling a Daewoo Kalos (oops, 'Chevy Aveo') in Mexico?

Bankruptcy through Chapter 11 - is for reorganization, and is not a right. To continue operations, they would require a loan - otherwise there would be no option than to go into Chapter 7 (liquidation). For them to get a loan, they have to really prove to a potential creditor that they can come out of bankruptcy as a going concern. With credit in short supply, who is going to make such a risky loan?
 
WSJ article...

General Motors is a once-great company caught in a web of relationships designed for another era. It should not be fed while still caught, because that will leave it trapped until we get tired of feeding it. Then it will die. The only possibility of saving it is to take the risk of cutting it free. In other words, GM should be allowed to go bankrupt.

Consider the costs of tackling GM's problems with some kind of bailout plan. After 42 years of eroding U.S. market share (from 53% to 20%) and countless announcements of "change," GM still has eight U.S. brands (Cadillac, Saab, Buick, Pontiac, GMC, Saturn, Chevrolet and Hummer). As for its more successful competitors, Toyota (19% market share) has three, and Honda (11%) has two.

GM has about 7,000 dealers. Toyota has fewer than 1,500. Honda has about 1,000. These fewer and larger dealers are better able to advertise, stock and service the cars they sell. GM knows it needs fewer brands and dealers, but the dealers are protected from termination by state laws. This makes eliminating them and the brands they sell very expensive. It would cost GM billions of dollars and many years to reduce the number of dealers it has to a number near Toyota's.

Foreign-owned manufacturers who build cars with American workers pay wages similar to GM's. But their expenses for benefits are a fraction of GM's. GM is contractually required to support thousands of workers in the UAW's "Jobs Bank" program, which guarantees nearly full wages and benefits for workers who lose their jobs due to automation or plant closure. It supports more retirees than current workers. It owns or leases enormous amounts of property for facilities it's not using and probably will never use again, and is obliged to support revenue bonds for municipalities that issued them to build these facilities. It has other contractual obligations such as health coverage for union retirees. All of these commitments drain its cash every month. Moreover, GM supports myriad suppliers and supports a huge infrastructure of firms and localities that depend on it. Many of them have contractual claims; they all have moral claims. They all want GM to be more or less what it is.

And therein lies the problem: The cost of terminating dealers is only a fraction of what it would cost to rebuild GM to become a company sized and marketed appropriately for its market share. Contracts would have to be bought out. The company would have to shed many of its fixed obligations. Some obligations will be impossible to cut by voluntary agreement. GM will run out of cash and out of time.

GM's solution is to ask the federal government for the cash that will allow it to do all of this piece by piece. But much of the cash will be thrown at unproductive commitments. And the sense of urgency that would enable GM to make choices painful to its management, its workers, its retirees, its suppliers and its localities will simply not be there if federal money is available. Like AIG, it will be back for more, and at the same time it will be telling us that it's doing a great job under difficult circumstances.

Federal law provides a way out of the web: reorganization under Chapter 11 of the bankruptcy code. If GM were told that no assistance would be available without a bankruptcy filing, all options would be put on the table. The web could be cut wherever it needed to be. State protection for dealers would disappear. Labor contracts could be renegotiated. Pension plans could be terminated, with existing pensions turned over to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. (PBGC). Health benefits could be renegotiated. Mortgaged assets could be abandoned, so plants could be closed without being supported as idle hindrances on GM's viability. GM could be rebuilt as a company that had a chance to make vehicles people want and support itself on revenue. It wouldn't be easy but, unlike trying to bail out GM as it is, it wouldn't be impossible.

The social and political costs would be very large, but if GM fails after getting $50 billion or $100 billion in bailout money, it'll be just as large and there will be less money to soften the blow and even more blame to go around. The PBGC will probably need money to guarantee GM's pensions for its white- and blue-collar workers (pension support is capped at around $40,000 per year, so that won't help executives much). Unemployment insurance will have to be extended and offered to many people, perhaps millions if you include dealers, suppliers and communities dependent on GM as it exists now. A GM bankruptcy will make addressing health-care coverage more urgent, which is probably a good thing. It would require job-retraining money and community assistance to affected localities.

But unless we are willing to support GM as it is indefinitely, the downsizing and asset-shedding will have to come anyway. Even if it builds cars as attractive and environmentally responsible as those Honda and Toyota will be building, they won't be able to carry the weight of GM's past.

GM CEO Rick Wagoner says "bankruptcy is not an option." Critics of a bankruptcy say that GM won't be able to get the loans it will need to guarantee warranties, pay its operating losses while it restructures, and preserve customers' ability to finance purchases. While consumers buy tickets from bankrupt airlines, electronics from bankrupt retailers, and apartments from bankrupt builders, they say consumers won't buy cars from a bankrupt auto maker. But bankruptcy no longer means "liquidation" or "out of business" to a generation of consumers used to buying from firms in reorganization.

GM would guarantee warranty support with a segregated fund if necessary. And debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing -- loans that provide the near-term cash for reorganizing companies -- is very safe, because the DIP lender has priority over all other claimants. In normal markets, it would certainly be available to a GM that has assets to sell, including a viable overseas business. Such financing is probably available even now.

In any event, it would be lined up before a filing, not after, so any problems wouldn't be a surprise. As a last resort, we could at least consider a public DIP loan to support a reorganizing GM with a good chance to survive -- as opposed to subsidizing a GM slowly deflating.

The fate of Daewoo -- the Korean auto maker that collapsed in 2000 after filing for bankruptcy, leaving about 500 dealers stranded in the U.S. -- is often cited as "proof" that a GM bankruptcy won't work. But Daewoo was headquartered in a part of the world where bankruptcy still carries a major stigma and usually means liquidation. Daewoo's experience is largely irrelevant to a major U.S. company undergoing a well-publicized positive transformation, almost certainly under new management.

GM as it is cannot survive without long-term government life support. If it gets that support, it can't change enough and won't change fast enough. Contrary to Mr. Wagoner's brave declaration, bankruptcy is an option. In fact, it's the only option that merits public support and actually has a chance at succeeding.
 
I too find a wealth of negatives and too few positive efforts from the big 3 to convince me they can turn it around. The timing isn't particularly good either.

Whocaccio posted:

WSJ Article: GM as it is cannot survive without long-term government life support. If it gets that support, it can't change enough and won't change fast enough. Contrary to Mr. Wagoner's brave declaration, bankruptcy is an option. In fact, it's the only option that merits public support and actually has a chance at succeeding.

Bingo.
 
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Contrary to Mr. Wagoner's brave declaration, bankruptcy is an option. In fact, it's the only option that merits public support and actually has a chance at succeeding.

The writer of this opinion piece thinks that the CEO of the company should view bankruptcy as an "option." An option to what? Liquidation?

The second sentence above is just silly. Why would bankruptcy merit "public support"? And fascinating to see someone viewing bankruptcy as a "success."
 
The second sentence above is just silly. Why would bankruptcy merit "public support"? And fascinating to see someone viewing bankruptcy as a "success."

Because Chapter 11 would give it a heightened ability to seek protection from it's creditors, renegotiate labor contracts, consolidate its obscene network of dealers, close down unprofitable plants and eliminate personnel wherever necessary. In other words, it would be cathartic. Giving the company time to restructure and, hopefully, reemerge a leaner, more profitable enterprise. A firm worth rescuing. Low cost loans, however, will not allow the Big3 to consolidate, renegotiate labor contracts and will likely benefit existing management, who will transform their role from "making good cars" to "lobbying for the most aid." Its quite possible that low cost loans being proposed by the Democrats, to make "green" cars, will just make the situation worse. The Big3's problem is not how "green" it is, but its horrendous management. 25b dollars to make a car they admit will never be profitable will not address the huge legacy costs and bumbling management.
 
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An article from the NYT.

A British Lesson on Auto Bailouts

By NELSON D. SCHWARTZ

Published: November 17, 2008

PARIS — A faltering auto giant whose brands are synonymous with the open road. Hundreds of thousands of unionized workers with powerful political backers. An urgent plea for the government to write a virtual blank check.

is not the story of Ford and General Motors, but British Leyland, a car company that went through £11 billion of inflation-adjusted British taxpayer money, or $16.5 billion, in the ’70s and ’80s before going out of business. All that is left of the company now are memories of cars like the Triumph, and a painful lesson in the limited effectiveness of bailouts.

“It’s all too evocative,†said Leon Brittan, a top official in the government of Margaret Thatcher, the free-market-minded prime minister who nevertheless backed the rescue. “I’m not telling the U.S. what to do, but the lessons of the British experience is don’t throw good money after bad. British Leyland carried on for a few more years, but they’re not there now, are they?â€

Other experts are sounding the same alarm. “The British Leyland experience is a relevant and cautionary one,†said John Casesa, a principal in the automotive consulting firm Casesa Shapiro Group in New York. “The government got in the business of trying to make a winner out of a structurally flawed company. That’s the risk in the U.S. as well.â€

Though Continental automakers have fared better than British ones, Mr. Casesa argues that the long history of government support in Europe made companies like Renault and Fiat strong players in their home markets, but not worldwide.

“With the exception of BMW and Mercedes, European automakers haven’t been globally successful,†he said. “Nor have they been hugely profitable.â€

That comparative history is receiving new attention as Congress turns its attention this week to the fate of Detroit.

The British Leyland bailout remains the classic example of a futile government intervention. The tight cooperation between governments and automakers on the Continent has produced happier results.

For half a century after World War II, the French government was the majority stakeholder in Renault, and Paris still holds a 15 percent stake in the company. In the 1980s, the company received a bailout equal to nearly 4 billion euros, or $5.1 billion in today’s money. Now it is highly profitable — at least compared with its American counterparts.

Today, G.M.’s German subsidiary, Opel, is appealing to Berlin for help, seeking more than 1 billion euros in credit guarantees, according to Carl-Peter Forster, G.M.’s European chief.

Monday, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany said her government would make a decision before Christmas.

“It’s not decided yet whether these loan guarantees will become necessary,†Mrs. Merkel told reporters in Berlin after meeting with Mr. Forster and other management and labor officials.

“If these guarantees become necessary, those funds should remain within Opel†in Germany, she added, echoing a concern some Americans have expressed that any United States bailout money go only to American automakers.

So far, Asian companies have not complained that such a bailout would amount to an anticompetitive subsidy. But José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, said last week that he thought an aid package for Detroit could be “illegal†under World Trade Organization rules.

That has not stopped European automakers from seeking 40 billion euros in loans from the European Investment Bank, ostensibly to help develop cleaner cars.

For Garel Rhys, head of the Center for Automotive Industry Research at Cardiff University in Wales, the trajectory of General Motors is reminiscent of British Leyland not only because of the former’s decision to seek aid to avert bankruptcy, but also for its slow, seemingly inexorable loss of market share. “Both had a history of being the biggest in their market but couldn’t adapt as they lost sales,†he said. “They couldn’t get customers back.â€

Historically, British Leyland’s roots stretched back further than Henry Ford’s Model T. The company controlled 36 percent of the British market well into the 1970s, with mass-market brands like Austin and Morris and premium lines like MG and Jaguar. But rising competition from Japanese and German automakers, shoddy workmanship and a breakdown in labor relations brought the company to near bankruptcy by 1975, Mr. Rhys said.

Michael Edwardes, who took over as British Leyland’s chief executive in November 1977, recalled that when he joined, no one even knew whether individual brands were profitable. “It was a farce — no one knew what the costs were,†he said.

As it turned out, every MG the company sold in the United States resulted in a loss of $2,000 for British Leyland.

Wildcat strikes consumed more than 32 million worker-hours in 1977, and the company became a symbol of labor strife, with some employees walking out the door with spark plugs in their coat pockets and engines in the trunks of their cars, Mr. Edwardes said.

Mr. Edwardes immediately began reducing the company’s work force of roughly 200,000 — to 104,000 within five years — and closing 19 factories. He appealed to the Thatcher government for aid, arguing the money was needed if British Leyland was going to be able to afford to lay off workers while investing in new models.

Eventually, the government put up £3.6 billion, equal to £11 billion in today’s money. But the rescue did not do much to preserve British Leyland’s labor force or market share in the long term.

By the time it received its last government infusion of cash in 1988, Mr. Rhys said, British Leyland’s market share had slumped to 15 percent. British Leyland evolved into MG Rover, which was eventually acquired by BMW, then spun off, finally going bankrupt in 2005.

According to Mr. Rhys, just 22,000 workers remain at British Leyland’s successor companies, about 10 percent of its work force in the mid-1970s.

“It was a very poor return,†he said. “We felt collectively and nationally that we got our fingers burnt, and this was always used as a reason to avoid bailouts, both by Labor and Conservative governments in Britain.â€

Mr. Edwardes still defends the government aid, arguing it preserved parts of the company that remain in business now — like Jaguar and Land Rover, which were bought by Ford.

Jaguar never made a profit for Ford, however, and was sold with Land Rover to Tata Motors of India earlier this year. Ford recouped only about half of what it paid to acquire the two brands, and is estimated to have poured $10 billion into Jaguar.

Despite the British experience, the case of Renault, which combined fresh money and new management in the 1980s, showed that government bailouts can be beneficial.

The French government help for Renault also came amid increasing losses for the company. But Mr. Rhys said that unlike British Leyland, Renault was able to use the financing to create new car models that were ultimately successful. That, along with tough cost-cutting by a newly installed chairman, cleared the road to profitability by the time the government began privatizing Renault in the 1990s.

If Washington does go ahead and help Detroit, Mr. Edwardes said, it is crucial at the government overhaul the management of the Big Three. “Throwing money at them isn’t enough,†he said. “They need money and they need new management. They need both, not one or the other.â€
 
Because Chapter 11 would give it a heightened ability to seek protection from it's creditors, renegotiate labor contracts, consolidate its obscene network of dealers, close down unprofitable plants and eliminate personnel wherever necessary. In other words, it would be cathartic. Giving the company time to restructure and, hopefully, reemerge a leaner, more profitable enterprise. A firm worth rescuing. Low cost loans, however, will not allow the Big3 to consolidate, renegotiate labor contracts and will likely benefit existing management, who will transform their role from "making good cars" to "lobbying for the most aid." Its quite possible that low cost loans being proposed by the Democrats, to make "green" cars, will just make the situation worse. The Big3's problem is not how "green" it is, but its horrendous management. 25b dollars to make a car they admit will never be profitable will not address the huge legacy costs and bumbling management.

In spite of all of this, they could not continue to operate without an infusion of capital.
 
In spite of all of this, they could not continue to operate without an infusion of capital.

Which is why the WSJ claimed that if one of the Big3 tried to file for Chapter 11, it might "merit public support." You quoted that, so it's not like you could have missed it...
 
What you've missed is that, like yours, the WSJ article is an opinion piece. There is no way to gauge what kind of "support" (sympathy) will result if a Chapter 11 filing comes into play.
 
What you've missed is that, like yours, the WSJ article is an opinion piece. There is no way to gauge what kind of "support" (sympathy) will result if a Chapter 11 filing comes into play.

IT WAS A FREAKING SUGGESTION! Not a scientifically guaranteed prediction of the planet's next 100 years. For the love of god, everyone understands exactly what the article meant and implied, you just get mired in these hopelessly pointless pissing matches over semantics. Gee... Thanks for clearing it up for us, I'm pretty sure this board actually thought that the WSJ had Nostradmus on it's payroll and was accurately predicting the future now. God, can't you make any point that is worth reading? Nobody missed that it was an opinion piece. Hence it gave it's opinion about how the government should proceed vis a vis Big3 aid. Is anyone, anyone at all, confused as to this bit of triviality?

(p.s. if you were half as smart as you are annoying, you would notice I specifically used the word "might 'merit public support'", as in it was conditional. As in it was not some kind of fact, or accurate prediction, or whatever you are trying to imply)

(p.p.s. they didn't mean public "sympathy" to the Big3, they meant actual public financial assistance to them, most likely through loan guarantees or low cost loans.)

(p.p.p.s. who the hell is confused that what I am saying is my opinion? Does that need pointing out? Of course my opinion is my opinion. That is obvious to everybody, just like you're opinion is you're opinion and opinions are, by definition, opinions. Can you make a point that is less, well, obvious?
 
Now that we've gotten that endlessly confusing bit about the WSJ opinion piece being an opinion (real Ph.D. level observation there... I was still confused that an opinion piece has an opinion) out of the way. Can anybody refute the WSJ's opinion or prove how giving the Big3 25b in loans to make "green" cars will somehow fix its on going labor issues, poor management and bloated distribution network?
 
Can anybody refute the WSJ's opinion or prove how giving the Big3 25b in loans to make "green" cars will somehow fix its on going labor issues, poor management and bloated distribution network?


The Big3 have to address such issues, regardless of the loans or the WSJ. As the article I posted to previously stated, there are a number of changes that have already been initiated. Like I mentioned earlier, as taxpayers, we will be paying a cost either way. For the Big3, change is coming either way. The issue at hand is how to let change occur in the least disruptive, and most beneficial way.
 
I think a reasonable compromise would be a "pre-packaged" Chapter 11, where the company goes in, gets government loans - but only if they restructure into a viable operation. The problem is -- I believe the union would not accept the terms that would be required to turn it into a viable competitive operation.

I have seen all sorts of estimates on how important it is, 10% of the economy, 3 million workers.... but that includes not just the parts and auto-workers - it includes distribution etc. (something that other car companies will step in replace).

I really don't think they are doing what is necessary right now, they have laid off less than 5% of the workforce (that I can see) and seem to be ignoring the fact that auto sales are going to be very low for a while. I fear the unknown, but I have little hope that they will survive without continues begging at the public trough.
 
IT WAS A FREAKING SUGGESTION! Not a scientifically guaranteed prediction of the planet's next 100 years. For the love of god, everyone understands exactly what the article meant and implied, you just get mired in these hopelessly pointless pissing matches over semantics. Gee... Thanks for clearing it up for us, I'm pretty sure this board actually thought that the WSJ had Nostradmus on it's payroll and was accurately predicting the future now. God, can't you make any point that is worth reading...blah, blah, blah...


Get a grip (and try to speak for yourself).

As cacruden noted above, even Chapter 11 would not ensure anything if there is no operating capital available. In the longer term, these companies face systemic problems, such as rising healthcare and pension outlays. These costs will continue to have significant effect on these businesses in the U.S., and will, in turn, have an effect on their Canadian subsidiaries.

In the longer term, if the (North) American automobile manufacturers disappear in the near future, one could possibly see Asian manufacturers situated on this continent then move offshore to lower cost manufacturing zones.
 

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