afransen
Senior Member
This is me being happy that Furey and Saunders are splitting the troglodyte vote.
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2023 Toronto Mayoral by-election
- Thread starter SJD_Toronto
- Start date
Northern Light
Superstar
Mainstreet is always the outlier to the high side for Bailao; we'll have to see how accurate they are/were. But their numbers have tended to run about 8 points higher for her than the field consensus.
Which would suggest a number closer to 14%
Before, they were in the field June 19th.
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zang
Senior Member
Not sure how much Tory's endorsement of Bailão would take away from Chow, rather than take from Saunders or Furey.
Chow is such a well known person in this city that those decided enough to declare a vote for her are probably aware of where she sits on the political spectrum relative to Tory.
I'm not so sure their Venn circles for Chow and Bailão do much overlapping.
If there is overlap, those aware of only the progressive past actions of Bailão may now be thinking twice.
facepalming_brooklynite
Active Member
As discussed in this Urbanist Agenda podcast episode (NotJustBikes&RMTransit), the overlap is such that some progressives might vote for Bailão to prevent Saunders or Furey from winning. However, if Bailão is truly in second place behind Chow, that motivation disappears.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
I think if Chow was out that Bailão rather than Saunders would win the election. All Bailão would have to say is I'll do what John Tory was doing, minus dipping my wick in the staff room.
Amare
Senior Member
So let's try and make this make sense:
Our former mayor who decided to resign, and thus a by-election has been called to replace him has decided to endorse his replacement. Then on top of that, has started robocalling to support his replacement. Seems pretty clear to me that he has no ethics, and his moral compass is pretty much non-existent.
This is the kind of stuff that makes me thrilled that he resigned in shame and indignity. Notwithstanding how he left this city in a state of financial and infrastructure ruin.
And the sad thing about it is, if someone did a poll with John Tory running as a candidate in this election, he'd still probably win again which shows how screwed up this city is. Now if Ana Bailao gets a significant bump between now and the election, we'll know that many voters havent learned a damn thing because they'll just be voting for Bailao because "John Tory said so".
Our former mayor who decided to resign, and thus a by-election has been called to replace him has decided to endorse his replacement. Then on top of that, has started robocalling to support his replacement. Seems pretty clear to me that he has no ethics, and his moral compass is pretty much non-existent.
This is the kind of stuff that makes me thrilled that he resigned in shame and indignity. Notwithstanding how he left this city in a state of financial and infrastructure ruin.
And the sad thing about it is, if someone did a poll with John Tory running as a candidate in this election, he'd still probably win again which shows how screwed up this city is. Now if Ana Bailao gets a significant bump between now and the election, we'll know that many voters havent learned a damn thing because they'll just be voting for Bailao because "John Tory said so".
John_Dee
Active Member
I took a trip on the Islington bus this morning, and the campaign signs were out in full force on those little strips of public land between the sidewalk and the road, the most signs I've seen for this election thus far. I've always found that sort of thing to be a tad pathetic; its not like their placement there shows any real support, unlike, say, the signs on the front yard of a property. Gong, whose name inevitably reminds me of Chuck Barris, was the biggest contributor to this phenomenon by far. Or should I say worst offender? His crap was everywhere! A couple of the other no-names and cranks had their signs up as well, though nowhere near to the extent that Gong Show did.
Meanwhile, one of Saunders' signs actually said, "Saunders Is How To Stop Chow." It's one thing to air such a sentiment in a forum like this, but placing it in your official campaign literature seems pretty crass, no? Does this jackass have so little to recommend himself he has to resort to this?
Meanwhile, one of Saunders' signs actually said, "Saunders Is How To Stop Chow." It's one thing to air such a sentiment in a forum like this, but placing it in your official campaign literature seems pretty crass, no? Does this jackass have so little to recommend himself he has to resort to this?
christiesplits
Senior Member
Ford is making robocalls for Saunders.
Islington Express Bus
Active Member
Yup, just got one tonight.
Folks, this is what "staying out of the election" looks like.
Folks, this is what "staying out of the election" looks like.
DSC
Superstar
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Must admit that I have some reservations about Olivia, but with both Ford and Tory opposed, my vote is confirmed!
adma
Superstar
Y'know something, I'd allow for flipping the hypothesis a bit.
That is, I think that a lot of the declared Chow vote is, in fact, absent-minded and "parked". And there's even been concern from those generically supportive of her that she's been running on more of a sleepwalky frontrunner's campaign than something with "meat" on it--maybe not putting her at danger of losing *now*, so much as putting her at danger come the next municipal election.
So it wouldn't be so much a matter of "Bailao progressives" thinking twice following John Tory's announcement, as it'd be a matter of "Chow moderates" seeking a candidate more to their moderate disposition, and Bailao emerging as the "safe choice" in that regard. In that light, they'd be most akin to "John Tory progressives" in '14--and maybe w/a dash of Nunziata/Ford populism for good measure.
That is, *if* Mainstreet's any kind of foretelling.
Islington Express Bus
Active Member
Bailao's post-endorsement bump is entirely fabricated by Mainstreet. All campaign she's been polling way, way higher in Mainstreet polls than in polls by other companies.
Then in the last two polls by them something changed, and their numbers looked a lot like the other polling companies, with Chow in a distant lead and Bailao down with the rest of the also-rans in the low teens.
22% looks good, but Mainstreet also put out polls with her at 20% and 21% 2 and 5 weeks ago respectively. The +9% jump in a matter of days looks like a huge movement for Bailao but only compared to their last two polls, which were outliers for them. It's a lot less impressive when I frame it as a +1% jump in the last 5 weeks.
Then in the last two polls by them something changed, and their numbers looked a lot like the other polling companies, with Chow in a distant lead and Bailao down with the rest of the also-rans in the low teens.
22% looks good, but Mainstreet also put out polls with her at 20% and 21% 2 and 5 weeks ago respectively. The +9% jump in a matter of days looks like a huge movement for Bailao but only compared to their last two polls, which were outliers for them. It's a lot less impressive when I frame it as a +1% jump in the last 5 weeks.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Ford just doesn’t get how unpopular he is with Torontonians. Even PC supporters outside of Etobicoke hold their nose when marking their provincial ballots.
marcus_a_j
Senior Member
I’ve been firmly in the Matlow camp for a while and been advocating for him when talking to others. But I don’t know now with the Ford and Tory robocalls (which thankfully I have not gotten - yet) and the bright red “Stop Chow” signs Saunders has put up, makes me want to vote Chow out of pure spite. I’d be happy with Chow as mayor, and even Bailao wouldn’t be terrible,
adma
Superstar
Thus my "if" in my final sentence: "That is, *if* Mainstreet's any kind of foretelling.".
So strategically, I'm taking it at face value--but also trying to grasp the vulnerabilities around the edges that *could* lead this hitherto boy-crying-wolf situation to an unforeseen reality. And also because I'd imagine Team Chow *would* (or at least *should*) be looking behind its back even in the face of an apparent sprint to the finish.
Because, really, this fabricated bump does reflect a reality--if *any* candidate would be poised to break out of the pack and defeat Chow, it's Bailao. But it's because the other contenders are either too unlikeable or too redundant to be a "big-tent" alternative to Chow; so it's really rating on the grade. All the same, I've witnessed too many scares and upsets, so...again, looking behind the back is a sensible thing to do. (And Ford vs Tory in '14 was scary-tighter than some were anticipating.)
If Bailao gets within 10 points, her team would claim it as a moral victory. The thing is, I can't picture anyone *but* Bailao coming within 10 points, unless Olivia plummets to 1/4 of the vote or something, then you might have Saunders and/or Furey (and/or *maybe* Matlow) also within a 10-point span...