Toronto Pinnacle One Yonge | 351.85m | 106s | Pinnacle | Hariri Pontarini

Just a single peek-a-boo (partial) taken from Union Station, on Bay Street, on June 5th, 2021:

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NeilV said:
Considering what has happened to the office market in the past year with no sign of recovery, I think both the Hub and 11 Bay are unlikely to ever get built. I hope I'm wrong though.
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I know it's been discussed ad nauseam here but I dont understand where this mythical, the office market has fallen apart stuff comes from. Office space in Toronto is doing just fine and it will continue to do so. These buildings havent even broke ground. Developers are building for 5+ years down the road. The office market is fine as is and there is no reason (barring a cataclysmic event) to expect it to fall off in the coming years.
 
NeilV said:
Considering what has happened to the office market in the past year with no sign of recovery, I think both the Hub and 11 Bay are unlikely to ever get built. I hope I'm wrong though.
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With the risk of going further *off-topic, I'm basing my prediction on 4 criteria...

1) The HUB to my understanding is the furthest along the the approval and planning process.

2) It is to my understanding they have secured a main tenant.

3) The shovels won't likely into ground until after this pandemic has hopefully become a bad memory.

4) And what Bjays92-san said above me.

*Note: At the same time I don't want to bump The HUB thread over this as this is not really new information. >.<
 
Bjays92 said:
I know it's been discussed ad nauseam here but I dont understand where this mythical, the office market has fallen apart stuff comes from. Office space in Toronto is doing just fine and it will continue to do so. These buildings havent even broke ground. Developers are building for 5+ years down the road. The office market is fine as is and there is no reason (barring a cataclysmic event) to expect it to fall off in the coming years.
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I know a lot of people on here are still in denial about this but it doesn't make sense to me. Surveys are showing that only around 10-20% of workers actually want to return to the office full time. Most office workers want a "hybrid model". In many cases that means the company will significantly reduce their floor space because the same space will be shared among multiple people who are only coming in once or twice per week.

The reason the office market appears to be "doing just fine" is because companies are typically locked into 5-10 year leases on their space; they can't just get rid of it immediately when they no longer need it. The small uptick in office availability that we've seen in the last year is only the tip of the iceberg. As more and more leases expire over the next 5-10 years and employees continue to want to work remotely, many more companies will be getting rid of their office space and that's when the market will really fall apart.
 
NeilV said:
I know a lot of people on here are still in denial about this but it doesn't make sense to me. Surveys are showing that only around 10-20% of workers actually want to return to the office full time. Most office workers want a "hybrid model". In many cases that means the company will significantly reduce their floor space because the same space will be shared among multiple people who are only coming in once or twice per week.

The reason the office market appears to be "doing just fine" is because companies are typically locked into 5-10 year leases on their space; they can't just get rid of it immediately when they no longer need it. The small uptick in office availability that we've seen in the last year is only the tip of the iceberg. As more and more leases expire over the next 5-10 years and employees continue to want to work remotely, many more companies will be getting rid of their office space and that's when the market will really fall apart.
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My one issue here is that this assumes offices remain in the "cram everyone in as tight as possible like a call centre" model. It's entirely possible that in the future offices will need more space, even if less people work their daily, as their purpose will be to host collaborative spaces, and that people will want more space around their work area post-pandemic. We've already seen some companies exercise options for more space (Shopify at The Well) as a result of this. So really, it could go either way, it's not all doom and gloom.

Also, to bring it back to this project, I'm really hoping the balconies make the podium look better, because rn, the tower seems promising, but the podium is a mess.
 
NeilV said:
I know a lot of people on here are still in denial about this but it doesn't make sense to me. Surveys are showing that only around 10-20% of workers actually want to return to the office full time. Most office workers want a "hybrid model". In many cases that means the company will significantly reduce their floor space because the same space will be shared among multiple people who are only coming in once or twice per week.

The reason the office market appears to be "doing just fine" is because companies are typically locked into 5-10 year leases on their space; they can't just get rid of it immediately when they no longer need it. The small uptick in office availability that we've seen in the last year is only the tip of the iceberg. As more and more leases expire over the next 5-10 years and employees continue to want to work remotely, many more companies will be getting rid of their office space and that's when the market will really fall apart.
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*caveat, I could always be wrong.........but....

***

First; I think you will find that those surveys are misleading.

Second, I think you will find that what employees might prefer, and what they will get may not be the same.

Third; Toronto is different (for now).

Simply because of the growth.

****

Apart from that; and without being overly specific, I can tell you that there is significant movement behind the scenes on new, large-scale, commercial leasing.

I have said before, and will repeat that nothing is ever a done deal, until it is...............

But be assured, with several developers in the 'new tower' game downtown........this was not a move to speculative construction.

It may well be that demand growth in Toronto slows.........but that is unlikely, in my opinion, to impact near-term demand for more than 1 additional major tower downtown.

****

One thing I can say............the singular leading occupants of downtown office space remain the Big Banks and Insurers........though tech is growing fast.

Note record profits:


But perhaps this might give a better sense of it:

companiesmarketcap.com

Largest banks and bank holding companies by market cap

List of the largest banks by market capitalization. Top public companies are: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America , ICBC, China Construction Bank, CM Bank
companiesmarketcap.com companiesmarketcap.com

4 of the 20 largest banks in the world, by market cap are now Canadian.

Canadians banks were always out-sized.....for a nation of our size, but this is relatively new.

If the banks spend it on share-buybacks, there will be less employment growth; but if, as expected, one or more make a significant acquisition......

While not as dominant in insurance.........Manulife, Sunlife and Great Life are all large insurers on a global scale.

I will also add there is material interest from more than one non-Canadian company in substantial space in Toronto.
 
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C-mac said:
Why do you think the podium is a mess?
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Mostly the waist-height mullions. Buildings look far better with full-height windows imo. The more lines you put on something, the messier it becomes. But if they can integrate those mullions successfully into the balcony railings, I think they can make it work.
 
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