The most obvious losers will be those retailers who believe they can reopen without making major changes to the way they do business. My contacts in China feed me data all the time, and here's what they show: Chinese retailers are 85% open but seeing only 30% of their former foot traffic. In China at least, there is no V-shaped recovery.
So what will bring consumers back to brick-and-mortar stores? Safety is a given, just as it was with air travel after 9/11. In this case, the analog to the confidence-building ceremony of ID production and shoe removal will be temperature scanning, tightened disinfection protocols, and rearranged physical layouts that promote social distancing. Such accommodations will help customers feel more comfortable in the retail space, but they won't be sufficient.
In order to analyze the retail industry in a more quantifiable, less subjective way, I've developed a tool I call the Consumer Engagement Index, which measures seven specific criteria ranging from store design to employee training. The most important criterion, however, is the human touch. To a great extent, the success of our species has depended on the human need for connection, out of which has developed our ability to network effectively with each other. The human touch reflects a retail staff's ability to empathize with the needs of customers. Retailers will have to train even their part-time staff as thoroughly as flight attendants if they expect to help their customers feel secure in an insecure world. If they don't, they will suffer the same declines in foot traffic currently being seen in China.
Moreover, the shopping center itself will have to change from a collection of proximate stores to a place where the experience pulls you in. This mirrors what Walt Disney figured out 75 years ago when he created Disneyland. You can buy Mickey Mouse ears, for sure, but the real draw is the experience. The same will have to be true of shopping centers.
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