Toronto Eglinton Line 5 | ?m | ?s | Metrolinx | Arcadis

[steveintoronto]

Toronto would be wise to borrow ideas from other jurisdictions before throwing $1.5 billion down the drain on a gold-plated LRT line to nowhere.

And now this becomes SSE relevant.

 

[BurlOak]

And now this becomes SSE relevant.

This has been debated for some time. In 2012/13, we collectively decides that defeating Ford was the priority at any cost. This is the cost that we agreed to pay.
(The irony is that Ford defeated himself anyway - but we didn't know that at the time).

 

[steveintoronto]

steveintoronto said: ↑

And now this becomes SSE relevant.

This has been debated for some time. In 2012/13, we collectively decides that defeating Ford was the priority at any cost. This is the cost that we agreed to pay.
(The irony is that Ford defeated himself anyway - but we didn't know that at the time).

I refer to this:

Toronto would be wise to borrow ideas from other jurisdictions before throwing $1.5 billion down the drain on a gold-plated LRT line to nowhere.

How many $B is Toronto throwing down the "drain" (literally) on the SSE?

 

[Streety McCarface]

How many $B is Toronto throwing down the "drain" (literally) on the SSE?

Only about 700M$, which isn't that much when you think about the big picture of projects in the city. The rest of the money is coming from the province and the Federal Government.

 

[steveintoronto]

Only about 700M$, which isn't that much when you think about the big picture of projects in the city. The rest of the money is coming from the province and the Federal Government.

And where exactly is that coming from?

June 24, 2016 5:42 pm | by David Brake | 15 Comments
A flurry of new reports, aimed at the June 28th meeting of Toronto's Executive Committee, are making clearer the costs of the City's ambitious transit network plan and they make grim reading when counting the dollars. The projected costs of both the Relief Line and the Scarborough Subway Extension (SSE) have risen sharply. The cost of the SSE is now $3.1b for a single stop to be built by 2025. As a result, the cost of this plus the planned accompanying Eglinton East LRT would be at least $1b more than the money allocated for it by the City, provincial, and federal governments. The Relief Line—estimated to cost $3.2b four years ago—is now estimated to cost $6.8b, partly because it is now planned to stop at the West Don Lands site ("Sumach" as per below) and Unilever site ("Broadview" in the map below), partly because of the very preliminary nature of the earlier estimate.
[...]

http://urbantoronto.ca/news/2016/06/toronto-must-find-ways-pay-new-transit-infrastructure

 

[JSF-1]

The thing that is always left out of the SSE plan is also the Billion or so dollars that will be needed to purchase new trains for Line 2 plus however much the new Kipling Yard will cost to store those new trains.

 

[steveintoronto]

The thing that is always left out of the SSE plan is also the Billion or so dollars that will be needed to purchase new trains for Line 2 plus however much the new Kipling Yard will cost to store those new trains.

To bring things back to the prime subject of this string, I thought I'd Google for a business case analysis of Crosstown. The funding and operating structure has come under some criticism, some of it justified, much of it not understood, but it is a new model for Toronto and Ontario, and it will be ever-more relevant with the likes of Subway Dougie and his Kaotic Konundrums drowning out saner singers.

And lo and behold, the picture on this 2012 Metrolinx pdf is of the San Diego Trolley....a *regional* initiative akin to a lot of successful projects now being promoted from other cities as a better way of doing things, one the most prominent being Crossrail, a *Corporation* with two shareholders: London, via TfL, and the National Gov't, via Network Rail.

And here's the pic of the highly successful and very well run San Diego Trolley:

http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regiona...itscases/Benefits_Case-Eglinton_Crosstown.pdf

It's a shame we don't hear more about the Crosstown model, and how it had to morph to meet some challenges. The lesson is going to be crucial to survival in the Ford Fiasco.

Addendum for reference on the SD Trolley:

Governance
MTS is a joint powers authority agency, or JPA. Member cities include San Diego, Chula Vista, Coronado, El Cajon, Imperial Beach, La Mesa, Lemon Grove, National City, Poway, Santee, and San Diego County. Elected officials from each jurisdiction, including San Diego County, serve as the Board of Directors.[1] The city of San Diego has the most representation with four members.[1] A county resident is elected by the Board of Directors to serve as the Chairman.[1]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Diego_Metropolitan_Transit_System

"Ahhh!" Some will seeth..."this is what Harris did with GO Transit". Not even close. He downloaded alright, but without a hint of understanding the financial support guaranteed to SANDAG for the Trolley. I won't labour on those points here, but will further reference if challenged. This is going to be a piqued discussion as Ford careens out of control across existing transit routes.

 

[Streety McCarface]

And where exactly is that coming from?

http://urbantoronto.ca/news/2016/06/toronto-must-find-ways-pay-new-transit-infrastructure

From the wiki:

"
The subway extension is estimated to cost $3.56 billion.[32] Here is how a portion of that cost is expected to be financed:

• Provincial Government: $1.48 billion
• Federal Government: $660 million
• 1.6% property tax levy: $745 million
• Increase in development charges: $165 million

The city will borrow money to pay its portion of the subway extension costs. The increases in property tax and development charges are to pay off this debt over a 30-year period.[31]"
The provincial funding adjusted for inflation is ~1.99 B dollars, which funds the rest of the subway extension.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_3_Scarborough#cite_note-32
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/20...ubway_confirmed_by_toronto_council.print.html

 

[Streety McCarface]

The thing that is always left out of the SSE plan is also the Billion or so dollars that will be needed to purchase new trains for Line 2 plus however much the new Kipling Yard will cost to store those new trains.

Aren't both of those projects needed regardless of the SSE to modernize Line 2 and to shift greenwood operations to RLN? Although BD ridership has recently taken a small dip, the line sees some of the highest ridership/km levels in the world, and as much as I love the T1s and the front windows, not modernizing the rolling stock on the line is a stupid thing to do in the long run. If all you're going to do is look at new subway trains required for the extension, we'll assume 6 new trains are required for operations to the STC, 8 including spares. At 3M per car or 18M per train, that's 108M dollars for 6 trains or 144M dollars for 8 trains. Comapred to the cost of the bus terminal planned at the STC and the entire costs of actually building the line, this is barely a drop in the bucket.

 

[steveintoronto]

The city will borrow money to pay its portion of the subway extension costs. The increases in property tax and development charges are to pay off this debt over a 30-year period.[31]"

Tell that to Ford. You might have to speak slowly and point to things. And repeat it many times. Or just give up.

To get his attention, yell "Subways, Subways, Subways". Cartoon drawings might assist in making your case to him. Maybe not...sprinkle in lots of "Folks" and "The People"...and when he starts his bobble head thing, get him to say "Simon Says".

And here's the annotated reference from the Wiki quip you posted: (Note how the figures have increased dramatically since this)

Scarborough subway confirmed by Toronto council
By TESS KALINOWSKIReal Estate Reporter
BETSY POWELLCourt Reporter
Tues., Oct. 8, 2013

In a close 24-20 vote and a major victory for Mayor Rob Ford, city council has confirmed its approval of a Scarborough subway that could cost Toronto taxpayers $1 billion over the next 30 years.

The decision Tuesday evening means a fully funded seven-stop LRT is off the table as a possible replacement for the aging Scarborough SRT. It also means the SRT will probably continue to operate while the three-stop subway is built.
[...]
Councillors who voted against the subway said it will mean higher debt, taxes and reduced transit services for other parts of the city.

Vowing to campaign on subways again in next year’s municipal election, Ford promised to go after planned LRTs on Finch West and Sheppard East.

He thanked the provincial government for its $1.48-billion contribution and Ottawa for $660 million to “do what we wanted to do from Day 1.”

But in a decision he said kept him awake at night, the penny-pinching mayor also supported a 1.6-per-cent property tax levy (to be phased in over three years) to pay Toronto’s share of the subway, estimated to cost between $2.5 billion and $3 billion.

Ford had repeatedly said he could never support a tax increase higher than 1 per cent.

While the tax hike is “unfortunate,” Ford said he’ll seek a public/private partnership to keep the increase to a minimum.

The transit levy will come on top of a general tax increase still to be decided by council.
[...]
Scarborough’s Paul Ainslie, a member of the mayor’s executive committee, drew the derision of Ford and his supporters when he said he couldn’t support the subway because he feared it would ultimately result in a 5-per-cent property tax increase.

“He should not be representing the people of Scarborough,” an angry Councillor Doug Ford told reporters, adding Ainslie would pay for that decision in next year’s municipal election.

“When he knocks on the door next year for the election we’re going to make it very clear he does not support the people of his area,” said Ford. “He supports LRT.”

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/20...ubway_confirmed_by_toronto_council.print.html

To put things simply:
There ain't no stinkin' money in the coffers! Like it or not, sensible conservatism dictates sharing risk, and investment, and the Libs *essentially* got this right:

From Value for Money Assessment Eglinton Crosstown Light Rail Transit February 2016

[...]Alternative Financing and Procurement in Ontario IO delivers public infrastructure projects using a project delivery model called Alternative Financing and Procurement (AFP). The AFP model brings together private and public sector expertise in a unique structure that transfers to the private sector partner the risk of project cost increases and scheduling delays typically associated with traditional project delivery. The goal of the AFP approach is to deliver a project on time and on budget and to provide real cost savings for the public sector. All projects with a cost greater than $100 million are screened for their suitability in being delivered as an AFP project. The decision to proceed with the AFP delivery model is based on both qualitative considerations (e.g., size and complexity of the project) and a quantitative assessment. The quantitative assessment, called Value for Money (VFM), is used to assess whether the AFP delivery model will achieve greater value to the public compared to a traditional public sector delivery model. VFM compares the estimated total project costs of delivering public infrastructure using AFP relative to the traditional delivery model.
[...]

VFM_Eglinton_CrossTown_Feb_2016.pdf
http://www.infrastructureontario.ca/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=34359739089

Is the model perfected? No...but it's on the way there. In the absence of budgets to finance what needs to be done, many nations are doing it this way, and with excellent results. The devil is in the details, especially when the Devil is in Queen's Park.

 

[Streety McCarface]

Tell that to Ford. You might have to speak slowly and point to things. And repeat it many times. Or just give up.

To get his attention, yell "Subways, Subways, Subways". Cartoon drawings might assist in making your case to him. Maybe not...

There's nothing inherently wrong with borrowing money to pay for infrastructure, especially if the lifespan of the infrastructure outlives the period in which you're borrowing the money for, and there's a concrete plan to pay back the debt. Where do you think the province is getting the money to pay for all their infrastructure projects? Let's just hope Doug has a plan to pay back debts and doesn't waste insane amounts of money on redundant transit projects.

 

[BurlOak]

Back to the Crosstown.

Everyone said that the best solution was to have the LRT south of Eglinton. Now that the portal has been done, maybe Eglinton can be moved north of the LRT.

Here is a zoom in of the what is now called Glassworks Drive (I think it was tentatively called Scenic Drive during construction).

The current plan seems to have

• 3 lanes north of the portal (2 WB through lanes and a turn lane) - say 3 x 3m.
• A sidewalk, say 1.5m.
• A boulevard, say 2m.
• A bike path, say 2m.
• Total = 14.5m

Proposed solution is as follows:

• 2 lanes north of the portal for 2 EB lanes - say 2x3m
• 3 lanes WB (2 WB through lanes and a turn lane) - say 3 x 3m.
• A sidewalk, say 1.5m.
• No boulevard.
• A bike path, say 2m.
• Total = 18.5m

An extra 4m is needed to the north. The property lines are far enough back, but there is a hill there so it requires some retaining walls. This is really only the very short stretch at the portal - maybe 100m length. This wall would likely cost in the $1M range. (Likely a few residence wouldn't be too happy.

The LRT and Eglinton would shift south after the portal so that Eglinton would basically be back to current alignment at Leslie, while the LRT would be on the south side. The West Don River Bridge would need some widening.

 

[MisterF]

Tell that to Ford. You might have to speak slowly and point to things. And repeat it many times. Or just give up.

To get his attention, yell "Subways, Subways, Subways". Cartoon drawings might assist in making your case to him. Maybe not...sprinkle in lots of "Folks" and "The People"...and when he starts his bobble head thing, get him to say "Simon Says".

I have a feeling that there are going to be a lot of exchanges like this at Queens Park over the next 4 years.

Come to think of it, the way that populists like Doug Ford and Trump get elected has a lot in common with the way Homer Simpson became sanitation commissioner (yeah I know, different episode). He's already making crazy promises like a subway to Pickering, and wants to eliminate a bunch of revenue sources. Let's just hope he doesn't blow his entire year's budget in a month, because those garbage men won't work for free.

 

[treplow]

I work at Wynford/Concorde Place - in the past week or so there has been major construction work on the Wynford bridge. I'm assuming this is in preparation for Crosstown track and platform installation. Is there a timeframe for when the above ground trackwork is scheduled to commence?

 

[Richard White]

I work at Wynford/Concorde Place - in the past week or so there has been major construction work on the Wynford bridge. I'm assuming this is in preparation for Crosstown track and platform installation. Is there a timeframe for when the above ground trackwork is scheduled to commence?

If you want to talk construction...

Kennedy and Eglinton is a disaster right now. The intersection is strictly controlled in terms of direction.

This is all a result of work being done at Kennedy Station for the LRT which reminds me, anyone know when that will all be completed? I remember hearing something about a 4 month closure of the north side bus bays at the station while they excavate.