Allandale25
Senior Member
Could you post a copy of the study you are referring to?
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407 Rail Freight Bypass/The Missing Link
- Thread starter dunkalunk
- Start date
Could you post a copy of the study you are referring to?
steveintoronto
Superstar
DonValleyRainbow
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EDIT: I can share the quote now that Imgur is back up.
The Davenport Diamond presentation has the following quote on the missing link:
The Davenport Diamond presentation has the following quote on the missing link:
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SeanofGTA
New Member
Umm Steve is not drinking Kool-Aid and I think you should apologize.
steveintoronto
Superstar
lol...I think the author withdrew the post. Here's what it was:
That was in reference to my earlier post:
And since that was posted, indeed, the daytime runs to Mt Pleasant are now 6 car consists. I challenge "RoyalRivers" to post the actual run-times of the trains he mentions.
And yes, I do drink KoolAid sometimes. I stop at a few drops. Some drink it all and ask for more...
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Allandale25
Senior Member
Getting back to the topic, in terms of the federal government providing financial assistance for the bypass, is there any proof of that yet or just speculation? I assume that at some point in the remaining time in 2016 we'll see more details on the scope of this project and the financing. It's completely possible the federal government could provide support. Maybe the project costs will be split equally between the province and feds. We just don't know yet.
I would assume that Metrolinx/CN are getting doing the necessary work to issue a RFP. Also, as discussed, the RER electrification EA for the Kitchener Corridor was going to be from the UP Express spur to Bramalea. I assume that it will now be extended to Kitchener. The latest on the EAs for all RER lines is this from the June Metrolinx board meeting: "Eleven Metrolinx-led GO RER related Environmental Assessments are completed, in progress or about to be launched".
Given the strong political support this project has in Brampton and Waterloo Region I think that there will be significant pressure for the province to follow through on this. I suppose if the province runs into difficulty they could ask the feds to help fund it.
Also, in terms of the comment that was made that the bypass and media coverage ("If this was a really substantial development, the news media, desperate for any sort of news that sells, would be all over this. They're not."), here are some additional media outlets that did cover it. Here's an article from the CBC, CTV News did a report here, and TVO did an article on it here. Although in that TVO article the author says that the bypass announced would be "separate from the “Missing Link” that Mississauga and Milton have been advocating" when in fact, if a bypass is built and it's along the 407 corridor, that's the same route as the "Missing Link" Mississauga/Milton want it just doesn't include CP at this time. It only includes CN and only benefits the Kitchener Corridor.
Further thought: the $5B for the "Missing Link" or "bypass" along the 407 was the number used (I believe) for the full "Missing Link" project. The Bramalea to Milton portion I assume would be less that $5B. There would be no need to build CP Rail infrastructure east of Bramalea on the CN York Sub if they are not participating. I think this has been discussed here before.
I would assume that Metrolinx/CN are getting doing the necessary work to issue a RFP. Also, as discussed, the RER electrification EA for the Kitchener Corridor was going to be from the UP Express spur to Bramalea. I assume that it will now be extended to Kitchener. The latest on the EAs for all RER lines is this from the June Metrolinx board meeting: "Eleven Metrolinx-led GO RER related Environmental Assessments are completed, in progress or about to be launched".
Given the strong political support this project has in Brampton and Waterloo Region I think that there will be significant pressure for the province to follow through on this. I suppose if the province runs into difficulty they could ask the feds to help fund it.
Also, in terms of the comment that was made that the bypass and media coverage ("If this was a really substantial development, the news media, desperate for any sort of news that sells, would be all over this. They're not."), here are some additional media outlets that did cover it. Here's an article from the CBC, CTV News did a report here, and TVO did an article on it here. Although in that TVO article the author says that the bypass announced would be "separate from the “Missing Link” that Mississauga and Milton have been advocating" when in fact, if a bypass is built and it's along the 407 corridor, that's the same route as the "Missing Link" Mississauga/Milton want it just doesn't include CP at this time. It only includes CN and only benefits the Kitchener Corridor.
Further thought: the $5B for the "Missing Link" or "bypass" along the 407 was the number used (I believe) for the full "Missing Link" project. The Bramalea to Milton portion I assume would be less that $5B. There would be no need to build CP Rail infrastructure east of Bramalea on the CN York Sub if they are not participating. I think this has been discussed here before.
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steveintoronto
Superstar
Four regions officially, including Toronto, and many others unofficially. Let's flip this over, there's only one that *doesn't fully support it*, and that's York Region, but their issues are pretty pale, not the least considering that the by-pass corridor has always been there, and if they allowed development too close, that fault is theirs.
That remains a *massive* missing piece, and other posters have commented on it. It's hard to tell how this can go ahead in terms of massive government(s) support unless CP is at the table.
You will note next to no *enduring news* on this issue. It was a one-shot PR stunt, or there would be all sorts of coverage, which was my initial point.
I not only *believe* in this concept, I think it *has to happen*! It renders everything else in GTA rail planning secondary and sometimes moot, it is the *key that binds them all*!
I only wish my skepticism wasn't warranted. Show me something to make me think otherwise...
Allandale25
Senior Member
Sorry, I should have been more clear in what I wrote. I meant to say that I think the "Kitchener Corridor Freight Bypass Line (KCFBL)" (my name for it) has strong political support but York Region isn't a factor/their support isn't needed because it doesn't impact/benefit them. That could change if CP comes aboard.
I take the opposite view. I think this could have an easier chance of actually happening because it shouldn't cause concerns from York Region residents living along the line, and I don't think the province/feds would hold it up any longer just to wait for CP to come to an agreement and Mississauga/Milton to be happy. That's just my perspective.
True, there hasn't been media coverage since June 14-15, 2016. I think there might be more in 2016 when the RFP/EA is updated. That could take until the Fall. If they want service to start by 2024, they can't just sit on their hands for all of 2016. Something will have to happen and design work will need to start. Optimistically, maybe there could even been public consultation meetings showing the proposed bypass route (and any alternatives or alternative designs) by late fall/early winter 2016.
steveintoronto
Superstar
I've got to remind you, though, that this was "An agreement in principle". Absolutely no details, funding, dates or anything in the way of a contract. "In principle" legally means it isn't an actual agreement.
This was a PR stunt that CP wisely avoided. Why would the Feds fund something so lop-sided? If the Feds get involved, it's to see the investment *change the entire GTA picture* (which the full link will do). Let me guess, the back-room PR gurus called CP to attend the announcement, and got a curt "NO!"
Why would CP put their position on the line when this is nothing but a political PR stunt, in effect stating: "See what we're doing, aren't we great?...BTW: We have absolutely nothing on paper".
CP will attend when the discussion becomes substantial. They're no fools. Meantime, why was CN even there? Brownie points? One has to wonder?
This was a PR stunt that CP wisely avoided. Why would the Feds fund something so lop-sided? If the Feds get involved, it's to see the investment *change the entire GTA picture* (which the full link will do). Let me guess, the back-room PR gurus called CP to attend the announcement, and got a curt "NO!"
Why would CP put their position on the line when this is nothing but a political PR stunt, in effect stating: "See what we're doing, aren't we great?...BTW: We have absolutely nothing on paper".
CP will attend when the discussion becomes substantial. They're no fools. Meantime, why was CN even there? Brownie points? One has to wonder?
Allandale25
Senior Member
I understand that's your view and am happy to agree to disagree. I could be wrong, but my sense is that with the political support the Kitchener Corridor has it will proceed without CP. It's true that all there is right now is an Agreement in Principal. We'll just have to see if more happens in 2016. I'm personally optimistic. If something happens to slow this down or construction doesn't start in a few years because the Agreement falls apart, I have never had a problem admitting I was wrong and would post so here.
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crs1026
Senior Member
It's very common for negotiations to begin with a "framework" phase where scope and direction are established. That often establishes good faith, sets boundaries, and creates skin in the game to move forward.
We know that Ontario had been engaging CN in discussions about the Bramalea-Georgetown line. This isn't a short term discussion: GTS started in earnest ten years ago, the sale of the Weston Sub was more recent, the proposal to triple track through Brampton was explored some years back. It appears that someone had been given a file on the bypass and told to do initial scoping.
We know that CN probably had a clear and substantial ask (which would have become more earnest, and also more problemmatic, once the latest RER plan and the firm decision to electrify were tabled). It's plausible that at some point the negotiators said to CN, OK, given our conflicting needs and positions on the Halton, would it be more productive to talk about moving to a bypass? To which CN might have replied, yes, that is a better alternative.
Nothing firm and certain, to be sure, but the alignment of interests between Ontario and CN on this is quite plausible. The rest is solvable with enough money, and Ontario is clearly bringing plenty of that.
I'm pretty convinced that this was not a PR stunt. It went from a suggestion by the various municipalities to the Minister's announcement in a very short time. There was no decade of "study". It would be uncharacteristic even for Wynne to pin her PR hopes to something with no legs to it. Equally unlikely that CN would position it positively if they saw no hope of actually striking a deal.
One wonders if sharing the Halton line simply became impractical. And Wynne's previous promises to improve GO service beyond 4 peak trains each way were at risk. Would this particular government spend a billion or two just to avoid embarassment?
There are several good reasons to keep CP out of this for now. As noted, one reason is to deflect or defer resistance from York/Markham. A second is money - even Wynne would balk at the combined pricetag of acquiring both lines as well as building the connections to CP. A third is that GO doesn't want to upgrade the Milton line yet (not saying I agree, but they can only juggle so many balls at one time). The last is that CP's eventual ask will be less once the bypass is in place and they see CN getting the competitive advantage from it.
This doesn't leave us with a tangible and measurable project execution plan, I agree. Welcome to transit in Ontario. But I think this may have substance all the same.
- Paul
steveintoronto
Superstar
To flip it over...not a word so far from the Feds on it. And without their cash..lol...your wondering if Wynne would do it purely to cover her azz besides, I can't see it happening. The freight aspect dictates that the Feds, who have the power of the Transportation Act, direct this, or at least are partners to a consortium doing this.
I still think a private funding initiative is a more likely answer. The Feds may put a massive chunk into this (and both the IMF and OECD have given the present Trudeau regime top marks for infrastructure investment in the last week or so, excellent vindication as the OECD especially are small 'c' conservative) but they're not going to fund it alone. The incentive must come from elsewhere. And QP just doesn't have the cojones to do it. CP knows that.
If the 'by-pass' v. The Link had more substance, it would be getting mention in the press. So far, since mid June, nothing. I've checked a few times. To make it work, and to be worth the massive investment, it's going to take trade-offs between CP and CN....and that may have to be arbitrated under the Transportation Act. The power is there, but that will be a last resort by the Feds, it might end-up being challenged in the courts.
I've yet again got to emphasize...it's *got to happen*. To pour the massive amounts of money into all the other projects complicated by the lack of the Link is obscene. If GO has one valid over-riding excuse for dragging heels on a lot of them, it's waiting for The Link. Do it, and the rest falls into place so much more easily and cheaply in a relative sense.
The Link will *save* far more than it costs in the long run.
Edit to Add: Just re-reading the IBI Report to get this quote exactly:
http://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2016/ex/bgrd/backgroundfile-94550.pdf
Frankly, I find that hard to believe, even as someone who wants to, but it puts a context on the wisdom, from many vectors, of doing it. What I can easily believe is that it will be far cheaper than all the other GO combined projects necessary as a result of this bottleneck.
Damn, now I'm upset again...where is the leadership on this?
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crs1026
Senior Member
There is an utter lack of transparency and accountability about this, I agree. These ten year lead time projects tend to have sliding start dates. The Big Move was a 2008 document, but most of its 15 year goals are stll ten years away.
It is possible that the bypass is the perfect do-nothing excuse for the political level, but GO does want to get on with its expansion. The Halton line is now full. GO cannot add service, other than maybe reducing headways on the single-direction peak service, without encroaching on the freight operation. Somebody has to put a shovel in the ground or all the hype about improved service remains talk.
Someone needs to educate the media about the concept of prerequisite tasks and critical path. If GO improvements can't happen until after X, and X. will take ten years, then the GO improvements are ten years away.
- Paul
steveintoronto
Superstar
It's hard to not be cynical. I don't have an issue with Allandale's hopes and enthusiasm, I have an issue with the inaction that will eventually render Allandale and persons alike also cynical.
From the IBI report again, and from a number, if not all, the reports on The Link:
[...]
This strategy can best be achieved with the cooperation of the major freight railways. As the study team sees it, the next steps in the process are:
•
Engage Metrolinx in discussion of the feasibility and desirability of this project.
•
Develop a process that will include Metrolinx, CN, CP and the concerned municipalities to develop the optimum solution.
•
Apply to the Government of Canada for funding of additional studies and for funding of the project itself.
[...]
That last line is key. In all fairness, as best as we can tell, Wynne et al have been left outside on this. The Province does not have the Transportation Act to oversee this, but they do have the Ontario Electricity Act and indirect ownership of much of the land necessary to to be made available. But it's all moot w/o the Feds.
I must clarify my using the term "regions" in prior posts on who's behind the IBI study:
"This study was sponsored by the City of Mississauga, City of Toronto, Town of Milton and City of Cambridge."
royalrivers
Active Member
Do your homework before spewing your 'knowitallism'
And 10 minutes saved is better than none *facepalm*