Toronto Union Pearson Express | ?m | ?s | Metrolinx | MMM Group Limited

TransitBart said:
I'll humour you. Leaving the airport 25 minutes ago, both consists which I saw were 2-car.
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I was asking about the length of the overcrowded train at 8:30 on a weekday, not the train at 23:00 on a Saturday. I know that they run a mix of 2-car and 3-car trains in general.

If the only trains that are overcrowded are the 2-car trains, then it's not a big deal because it's an just an equipment issue. But if we're seeing overcrowding on 3-car trains then it's an infrastructure problem, which is much more serious.
 
reaperexpress said:
I was asking about the length of the overcrowded train at 8:30 on a weekday, not the train at 23:00 on a Saturday. I know that they run a mix of 2-car and 3-car trains in general.

If the only trains that are overcrowded are the 2-car trains, then it's not a big deal because it's an just an equipment issue. But if we're seeing overcrowding on 3-car trains then it's an infrastructure problem, which is much more serious.
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I ride daily from Weston. The 2 car trains are now frequently standing only during rush hour. I'd say 75% of us getting on this morning on 7:53 train at Weston had to stand (2-car was 75% full coming from the airport when it arrived at Weston).

I've only see standing on a 3-car after a Blue Jays game thus far.
 
It's a shame the equipment is so unreliable that they can't run 3 car trains. I'm a little surprised the issues with the Nippon Sharyo units haven't gotten more press...
 
Megaton327 said:
It's a shame the equipment is so unreliable that they can't run 3 car trains. I'm a little surprised the issues with the Nippon Sharyo units haven't gotten more press...
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It may happen once SMART starts service this fall using 3 cars sets same as UPX ones. Then, they maybe better than UPX ones who got the first batch, since their service was starting sooner than later. Most bug/flaws that UPX may have will be gone for SMART equipment or should be.
 
I'm heard second-hand information that some taxis and limos are losing fares with the new UPX fares. Some are asked to have their rides to the nearest UPX station, instead of all the way to the airport. At least for a single passenger. For multiple passengers, they are still getting rides.

Wonder if taxi stands will now be appearing at Weston and Bloor to pickup rides coming in from the airport?
 
reaperexpress said:
I was asking about the length of the overcrowded train at 8:30 on a weekday, not the train at 23:00 on a Saturday. I know that they run a mix of 2-car and 3-car trains in general.

If the only trains that are overcrowded are the 2-car trains, then it's not a big deal because it's an just an equipment issue. But if we're seeing overcrowding on 3-car trains then it's an infrastructure problem, which is much more serious.
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I have not seen a 3-car train since last fall. But I do a lot of travelling very, very early or very late in the day. Sorry to be so dense about the trainsets in my previous answer.
 
W. K. Lis said:
I have seen 3-car trains on the UPX. Do not know if that is a fluke or just don't have any more cars available to add to all the trains.
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Very rare you will see 2 3 car trains on line at any given time, but there is uselessly 1 on line daily from what I have seen.

In fact I caught one on May 25
 
Yeah, I almost answered the the "two or three cars" question, except I'm still flummoxed on the answer. When they do have three car trains on, it's due to a special event or expected crowding. So how do they know when and where the three car trains will be in the circuit when the rush demands it? They don't! They put on as many as they can, and then run out of stock! There simply isn't enough stock to run them all three car, albeit I'll leave the math to someone else. I know they have 18 cars, at least one of which is out for service, and possibly, either by itself, or another too for standby. Now divide the 16 left by three. I forget how many they have to have out there to maintain the 15 min schedule, but I know they come up short on doing all consists as three car trains.

Aside from that, I've noted of late how the Sharyos slow down to a crawl before pulling into stations. To do that, and maintain the fifteen minute schedule, they must be making good time...which still makes me wonder, could they keep the fifteen minute timetable if they had an un-powered coach sandwiched between two motor ends?

Anyone care to conjecture an answer? Because if they can...it raises a number of possibilities, not the least that they *may* be able to do a Bramalea run as an alternate to the airport (every other one) or the airport be a shuttle to Malton until the Woodbine Racetrack station is built.

The present schedule done with an acceleration rate of each car powered appears to allow the time to crawl in and out of the stations. Could that be sacrificed to allow all three car consists, the middle car un-powered? (Sourcing an unpowered middle car may be problematic, but that's another discussion)(they could be used later for EMU consists).

I think the numbers that Jcam provided have given us food for thought.
drum118 said:
It may happen once SMART starts service this fall using 3 cars sets same as UPX ones.
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There's some problems there though, even if all the bugs are worked out of the Sharyos. Metrolinx have now lost their window of opportunity to get more Sharyos for the same price. According to what I read as per SMART, they state (gist) "twice the price", and there's doubt that they'd do a follow-on order themselves at that price.

It's a bit of a conundrum, which is why I wonder on using a compatible but unpowered coach in each three car consist, but also forward compatible to be used in what EMU order is to come when electrification finally arrives.

Just watched your vid there Drum, besides being excellent as always...did that UPX stop, or keep going? They now slow before entering the platform, unless it wasn't a scheduled stop.
 
steveintoronto said:
Yeah, I almost answered the the "two or three cars" question, except I'm still flummoxed on the answer. When they do have three car trains on, it's due to a special event or expected crowding. So how do they know when and where the three car trains will be in the circuit when the rush demands it? They don't! They put on as many as they can, and then run out of stock! There simply isn't enough stock to run them all three car, albeit I'll leave the math to someone else. I know they have 18 cars, at least one of which is out for service, and possibly, either by itself, or another too for standby. Now divide the 16 left by three. I forget how many they have to have out there to maintain the 15 min schedule, but I know they come up short on doing all consists as three car trains.

Aside from that, I've noted of late how the Sharyos slow down to a crawl before pulling into stations. To do that, and maintain the fifteen minute schedule, they must be making good time...which still makes me wonder, could they keep the fifteen minute timetable if they had an un-powered coach sandwiched between two motor ends?

Anyone care to conjecture an answer? Because if they can...it raises a number of possibilities, not the least that they *may* be able to do a Bramalea run as an alternate to the airport (every other one) or the airport be a shuttle to Malton until the Woodbine Racetrack station is built.

The present schedule done with an acceleration rate of each car powered appears to allow the time to crawl in and out of the stations. Could that be sacrificed to allow all three car consists, the middle car un-powered? (Sourcing an unpowered middle car may be problematic, but that's another discussion)(they could be used later for EMU consists).

I think the numbers that Jcam provided have given us food for thought.
There's some problems there though, even if all the bugs are worked out of the Sharyos. Metrolinx have now lost their window of opportunity to get more Sharyos for the same price. According to what I read as per SMART, they state (gist) "twice the price", and there's doubt that they'd do a follow-on order themselves at that price.

It's a bit of a conundrum, which is why I wonder on using a compatible but unpowered coach in each three car consist, but also forward compatible to be used in what EMU order is to come when electrification finally arrives.

Just watched your vid there Drum, besides being excellent as always...did that UPX stop, or keep going? They now slow before entering the platform, unless it wasn't a scheduled stop.
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They slow down from that point to the Bloor Platform and this various from engineer to engineer.

As for buying more cars/trains, not worth the money to do so, especially converting them to an EMU down the road.
 
drum118 said:
Numbers maybe greater than plan, but the cost recovery is well below the line based on 5,000 riders paying the original price. Do the math to see if it meets 85% recovery cost or what is the recovery % now??
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IIRC, I read an earlier post that it needed approximately 6700 riders at the new price, to have similar cost recovery at 2500 under the old price.
We're now well beyond that point.

(I think it was reaperexpress? It was several pages back.)
 
Found the article, it was by Markster.

Worth re-quoting, to plug in the 8200 ridership figure.

At $7 average fare per person, the crossover point was 6778 people before it made better farebox recovery than before the fare cut.
At $7 average fare per person, it needs 20,647 riders per day to break even (under old operating cost structure)
At $9 average fare per person, it needs 16,059 riders per day to break even (under old operating cost structure)

At 8200 per day at $7 average fare, this is only 40% farebox recovery at the moment.

Presumably, it is possible to get 70% farebox recovery eventually very similar to the rest of the GO system. This would require operating cost cuts (e.g. get rid of that magazine, restructure, do the electrification, etc). Right now, for the operating service to get 70% recovery, it will require 14,453 passengers per day at $7 average fare per person, or 11,241 at $9 average fare per person. Assuming I underestimated the average fare per person, plus a further 10% operating cost cut could become possible with the diesel service, that would maybe pull it into the realm of possibility before electrification. At the minimum, we should see UPX be able to easily exceed 50% farebox recovery (if not already, due to conservative average fare estimate).

However, after the significant operating cost drop of electrification and much lower maintenance, AND an all-3-train fleet, maybe even EMU bilevels or a 4-coach station modification for GO RER EMU fleet compatibility, possibly with a slightly upgraded frequency at 10-minute or 12-minute. At that stage, it might go to 100% (or almost) farebox after electrification.

Markster said:
As the article states:

They're only looking at operating costs, and no amortization of the capital. It's fair to say that it doesn't look at VIA or GO in this analysis, as those are separate operations.
This was an analysis based on the oh-so-publicized ridership figures (and average fare paid, $22.50) that sparked the fare change. Now that there are many more riders, the per rider subsidy will be much lower, as it's distributed between more people. With the fares lower, there's more cost recovery to make up, and there's every chance that the overall subsidy is higher, but the per rider subsidy will be down.

To look at some numbers a bit, and see what we can glean from their analysis

Cost per person: $22.50/pax + $46 subsidy/pax= $68.50 total/pax
Subsidy per day: ($23.3M subsidy/8mos) / (240days/8mos) = $97,083 subsidy/day
People per day: ($97,083 subsidy/day) / ($46 subsidy/pax) = 2110 pax/day
Daily Operating Cost: 2110pax/day * $68.50 total/pax = $144,535 total/day
Annual Operating Cost: $144,535/day * 365days = $52,755,275 total/year

Now, with the fare change, let's say ridership has doubled but average fares are down to $7. That ridership estimation is probably conservative, based on anecdotal evidence.
Operating costs will be virtually unchanged.

New cost per person: $144,535 total/day / 4220pax/day = $34.25/pax
New subsidy per person: $34.25/pax - $7/pax = $27.25 subsidy/pax
New subsidy per day: $27.25 subsidy/pax * 4220pax/day = $114,995 subsidy/day

With a doubling of passengers, and a reduction of average fare to $7, we see the subsidies change:
Per person subsidy: $46 to $34.25 (drop of $11.75)
Total daily subsidy: $97,083 to $114,995 (increase of $17,912)

With a $7 average fare, 6778 passengers per day is the magic number to recover the same revenue as before the fare drop, and it would mean a per rider subsidy of $14.
To break even on a daily operating cost of $144,535 at a $7 average fare would require ridership of 20,647 per day

Numbers are fun!
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