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In the wake of previous announcements about increased federal spending on public transit, Trudeau's visit to the TTC's Greenwood rail yards on May 6th prompted speculation by Relief Line activists that he might be about to kick-start funding for that long-awaited next subway line.
In the end, what we appeared to get was a re-announcement of an $840m conditional pledge to invest in TTC repairs and maintenance, one which was already clearly stated in the federal budget announcement more than a month earlier. The federal government got the headlines and photo op it undoubtedly wanted however, while Mayor John Tory has started to outline what the money will be spent on - all worthwhile projects.
The federal government is only going to provide this money, however, if the other two levels of government contribute too. To get the money flowing faster, and recognising many municipalities' lack of revenues it is not going to insist on the traditional 33% split, instead they are offering to fund up to 50% of projects. This still leaves Ontario and Toronto to stump up a similar sum.
In effect, what the TTC might get is $1.7bn to improve signalling on subway lines to enable more frequent running, replace ageing and overcrowded buses, and speed up the process of making subway stations accessible to the disabled. But even this would be short of addressing the $2.7bn shortfall the TTC has identified in funding to keep the service in good repair in the next ten years. And which of the City or the Province will put $840m in to release Trudeau's largesse?
Certainly in welcoming Trudeau's announcement Tory did not speak of a need to get hundreds of millions of additional dollars in spending on transit through City Council. When we asked the Ontario Ministry of Transportation whether Mayor Tory knew something we didn't—that Ontario would be matching the $840m itself?—a spokesman responded by referring to Ontario's past generosity and its $13.5bn GO Regional Express Rail programme, saying, "Ontario looks forward to working with the City of Toronto on identifying the priorities this federal investment will be dedicated to".
Discussions are being held certainly, but behind the scenes the negotiations seem likely to be tricky. While Ontario is predicting it will eliminate its budget deficit by 2017, it has the largest net debt of any sub-national entity in the world at $308 billion in 2016-17, giving it every incentive to try to offload the cost of maintaining the TTC's network to the municipal level. Tory, on the other hand, originally said he would freeze property taxes during his campaign, and spent a good deal of political capital getting a "city building fund" through Council which will only bring in around $70m a year for five years, covering both housing and transit. How likely is it he will be able to add to this further? The city has $18bn of unfunded proposals on its books and while there is great need for further transit spending, the mayor's own task force on community housing, for example found that "the TCHC struggles with an ever growing backlog of capital repairs [and] inadequate operating funding".
If the matching money is found for the federal funding, the way in which the cost is split between city and province may be an important precedent for future transit spending. This $840m covers only the first two years of the federal Liberals' transit programme and was always meant to be spent on maintenance, planning and the like. The next phase will be spending on longer term projects. And as we have already observed, even if we get at least some of the infrastructure the city so badly needs, the answer to the question of who will be willing to pay to maintain and operate these new facilities is also unclear. Transit advocates will have some tough fights ahead of them. Join the relief line debate in our forums.
