nfitz
Superstar
I said they might make it. As it not's impossible. That's no right on schedule. Trump might win the US election, and the earth might be hit by a huge meteor this year.
Please pay more attention to detail.
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Please pay more attention to detail.
TransitBart
Senior Member
dowlingm
Senior Member
This thread is tracking C/ALRV refurbs and retirement https://cptdb.ca/topic/16829-ttc-clrvalrv-retirements/
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
Linking to Shelbyville I see...
drum118
Superstar
Looks like 4423 has the same problem as 4422 and been in the shop over 24 hrs.
If it arrived at Hillcrest on Tuesday last week and got to the Barns the same, today is the 10 day.
All runs I have seen so far, out and back to the Barns for one round trip.
If it arrived at Hillcrest on Tuesday last week and got to the Barns the same, today is the 10 day.
All runs I have seen so far, out and back to the Barns for one round trip.
drum118
Superstar
Was reading something and show what we are missing.
LA was ordering 100 extra AnsaldoBreda back in 2008 that were 3 tons overweight on the current 50 to the point the deal fell apart. In 2012 LA order 235 Kinkisharyo cars that are currently a few months behind schedule. They are receiving a car a week to the point they have 41 in service and 13 still in testing that are having a few problems, but still maintaining a car a week.
Because of the delay between 2008-2012, there is a shortage of cars for all lines including the newly open ones to the point there is overcrowding forcing riders to wait up to 20 minutes before able to get on a train. Doesn't allow the system to reduce its headway nor to create 2-3 car trains to deal not only the overcrowding, but the spike in ridership cased by the new lines.
AnsaldoBreda cars have provide they aren't a good car for a few system to the point they are being replace by new suppliers.
LA was ordering 100 extra AnsaldoBreda back in 2008 that were 3 tons overweight on the current 50 to the point the deal fell apart. In 2012 LA order 235 Kinkisharyo cars that are currently a few months behind schedule. They are receiving a car a week to the point they have 41 in service and 13 still in testing that are having a few problems, but still maintaining a car a week.
Because of the delay between 2008-2012, there is a shortage of cars for all lines including the newly open ones to the point there is overcrowding forcing riders to wait up to 20 minutes before able to get on a train. Doesn't allow the system to reduce its headway nor to create 2-3 car trains to deal not only the overcrowding, but the spike in ridership cased by the new lines.
AnsaldoBreda cars have provide they aren't a good car for a few system to the point they are being replace by new suppliers.
smallspy
Senior Member
AnsaldoBreda was sold to Hitachi a year ago.
Their varied failures over the past decade or two are numerous and well documented, but in at least one of those cases - Boston - they aren't really the ones at fault.
Dan
Toronto, Ont.
pstogios
Senior Member
BBD meeting their latest proposed schedule is not impossible but it is very unlikely given their missing what, 3 or more previous revised schedules. If you have optimism for this company, that is just blind.
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nfitz
Superstar
The schedule seemed very achievable, compared to the several other fictious ones.
I'm not sure what is making you think it is very unlikely other than your own bias.
For the last 10 deliveries, they've averaged every 24.5 days. If they keep that up, we'll have 28 cars rather than 30. All they have to do is ramp up a little to just under 20 days to hit 30 cars this year.
Personally, I'll put my money on 29 cars.
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pstogios
Senior Member
The latest schedule is for 31 by the end of the year.
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/20...schedule-for-long-delayed-ttc-streetcars.html
Achieving 29 is a failure. And even hitting that mark is improbable since the company has proved no ability to ramp up production of this contract.
Just as you feel I am biased to the downside, one can make the argument you are biased to the upside. History with this particular contract, and the stance of the TTC which is extreme frustration and exasperation, has proven expectations to the downside have been borne out in reality multiple times. On the contrary, suprises to the upside have been not been borne out at all.
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/20...schedule-for-long-delayed-ttc-streetcars.html
Achieving 29 is a failure. And even hitting that mark is improbable since the company has proved no ability to ramp up production of this contract.
Just as you feel I am biased to the downside, one can make the argument you are biased to the upside. History with this particular contract, and the stance of the TTC which is extreme frustration and exasperation, has proven expectations to the downside have been borne out in reality multiple times. On the contrary, suprises to the upside have been not been borne out at all.
Napoleon
Active Member
This is called Bayesian evidence in the statistical world. When it comes to Bombardier, this certainly informs my expectations.
You're right, this schedule did seem very achievable. After missing revised schedule after revised schedule, they offered a plan to try to make major improvements in their assembly process while simultaneously significantly lowering the production rate. They are currently producing cars at lower than the latest promised production rate. Every other time they have been behind in delivery, they have stayed behind in delivery missing the promised milestone. To assume that they will miss the current target is the definition of reasonable logical thinking, not bias in any way.
What's more worrisome about the current situation is that they're on track to miss a milestone after a significant change in leadership and production (although I'm not sure if the new line is up and running yet or not).
nfitz
Superstar
TTC said 30. That looks like a typo from the Star.
The schedule did ramp up to a significantly increased production during 2017. It's not unreasonable to expect that they can still produce 9 more streetcars in the next 5 months; that only required the production of 2 more than 7 (4410-4416) produced during the same 5 months of 2016.
I use Bayesian statistics occasionally when kriging data - I can produce all sorts of strange results (as one can do with any types of stats!).
Though going to simpler stats, if you fit a trend line to the "days since previous delivery, starting with car 4406, there is a downard trend, despite the last couple of slower deliveries. Though one can debate the poor fit. I don't work with industrial production stats enough to analyse much deeper, having only completed some undergraduate courses in the area, and not practising in it.
Attachments
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Napoleon
Active Member
I wouldn't exactly believe a line fit to that data since it has zero predictive value. The fit for June (where it hits a data point directly) looks like about 25 days. The preceding delivery looks to about 13-14 days and then the subsequent data looks like 38-39 days. This huge variance tells you something crazy is going on in their production since the time between deliveries is tripling.
Steve X
Senior Member
If we look at how many days between delivery of 2 or 3 cars and see a downwards trend, it's a good sign.
Johnny Au
Senior Member
What is the r value of the chart?