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Trinity-Spadina by-election

I am just glad that it seems that the federal Liberals are finally going away from the Ianno/Innes, husband\wife combo. They have the Liberal nominee since 1988 (That's eight elections in a row by my count) It's not like they won recently either. Ianno/Innes has lost the last three elections to Olivia and by each time the lose has been by bigger margins. By the looks of the recent the recent poll so far Innes doesn't look to be in any better shape. If you look at the main candidates for the Libs and NDP awareness and approval rating it goes like this

Vaughan (lib) Aware 84% - Approvel 74/26 Disapprove
Innes (lib ) Aware 74% - Approve 44/56 Disapprove
Cressy (ndp ) Aware 58% - Approve 77/23 Disapprove
Tabbert (lib) Aware 10% - Approve 63/37 Dissaprove
Davey (lib) Aware 9% - Approve 63/37 Dissaprove

It seems like the generic Liberal is about 63% approval as the very no-name like Tabbert and Davey has that approval and Innes is way below that. Which is horrible for her chances in the byelection. I can't believe she causing a fuse by being squeezed out. Even the none Vaughan Liberals have a chance of growth. Innes is already known and has a mid-40 approval which pretty horrible (who does that sound like), and would probably be stuck at 30% of votes (not enough to win) Here is the current head to head between potential candidates

Cressy ndp 31%, Vaughan (lib) 52%, Siow (pc) 14%
Cressy (ndp)45%, Inners (lib) 30%, Siow (pc) 15%
Cressy (ndp)43%, Tabbert (lib) 33%, Siow (pc) 15%
Cressy (ndp)46%, Davey (lib) 28%, Siow (pc) 16%
 
Yup that's right for a quarter century the Liberal candidate was Tony Ianno or Christine Innes. Ianno's old base has shrunk considerably and should Vaughan be nominated as the candidate they will just be a minor nuisance with little impact on the campaign.
 
I have bumped into Joe Cressy three times in the last two weeks. Once canvassing outside Christie Station, the other time outside Fiesta Farms, and once along Follis. I imagine the NDP are putting a lot of their eggs in one basket: hoping that their base comes out in hoards in the Annex, Seaton Village and Harbord Village. The big wild card is the waterfront community. It is prime turf for a cool, urbane anti-Ford statesman like Adam Vaughan. But will they go out and vote? By-elections have notoriously low voter turnouts. The condo crowd skews young and many have little to no roots in the riding which may lessen their chance of voting.
 
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Then again, Vaughan is 52 (and he's aged, he's a less "youthful gray" than he was in 2006), Cressy is 29.

I think the Annex and Seaton Village are also chok full of what we can call "Adam Vaughan New Democrats." And these are the type of people who turn out to vote.
 
King of Kensington said:
He would have had an easier time getting the NDP nomination than the Liberal nomination.
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Are you talking about Vaughan? He's been at war with the NDP since he ran against Olivia Chow's chosen successor for city council in 2006. Then he supported Karen Sun over Mike Layton in 2010. There's no way the NDP would ever nominate him as a candidate.
 
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Silence&Motion said:
Are you talking about Vaughan? He's been at war with the NDP since he ran against Olivia Chow's chosen successor for city council in 2006. Then he supported Karen Sun over Mike Layton in 2010. There's no way the NDP would ever nominate him as a candidate.
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He did? Good for him. Karen Sun was a better candidate.
 
I liked Karen Sun as well, but Mike is okay. I was happy with either. I was impressed (and happy) that Karen got more votes than sports celeb McCormick

I just remember that TrinSpa is going to be split in two in the next general election. Doesn't that make Innes extra dumb to burn her liberal bridge when all she had to do is wait a year and even if Vaughan won she would have been able to run at the other district? Even though I doubt she would be able to win either of the split TrinSpa riding.

From Desmond Cole twitter: "Christine Tabbert has withdrawn from Liberal nomination in TrinSpa; release says she will co-chair Adam Vaughan's campaign". Seems like everybody is clearing out so Vaughan can take the nomination.
 
Yeah well I guess having a shot at winning will trump loyalty to Ianno/Innes.

University-Rosedale is being reserved for Chrystia Freeland. Christine Innes said she wanted to run in University-Rosedale but was told to run in Spadina-Fort York.

I agree Mike Layton is a good councillor but I preferred Karen. I too was glad to see the poor third place showing for McCormick, who was backed by the Ianno/Innes machine (and thus got a lot of signs up).
 
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Adam Vaughan wins Liberal nomination for Trinity-Spadina


From this link:

Toronto city councilor Adam Vaughan will be the federal Liberal candidate for Trinity-Spadina in the riding’s upcoming byelection.

Vaughan kicked off his bid for the position to replace NDP MP Olivia Chow, who stepped down to run for mayor, April 23.

He was elected the Liberal candidate on Saturday, beating out Christine Tabbert and Ryan Davey for the nomination.

Vaughan says it’s a unique, once-in-a-generation opportunity with a national leader like Justin Trudeau who is committed to cities and housing.

He has reached out across this country to leaders like myself to build a national strategy that will deliver the dollars we need to make our cities great and wonderful places to live,†he explained.

Vaughan will now go up against Joe Cressy, a long-time Chow supporter, who is running for the NDP.

The other major parties have yet to announce their candidates.

The byelection date is not set.
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Thank you for the Freeland information, I didn't know she was going to move away from Toronto Centre riding which she recently got elected in (who's going to take her place in Toronto Centre?) Adam and her are a couple of real all-star candidates for TrinSpa north and south combo.
 
I think Chrystia Freeland is overrated - though with full disclosure I supported Linda McQuaig in the by-election. She got elected in a very safe Liberal riding; I don't think much of her election had to do with her personal appeal. If she was so formidable why do the Liberals need to reserve University-Rosedale for her? She will also be facing a mostly new constituency as I think about two-thirds of University-Rosedale comes from Trinity-Spadina.

In the by-election I'm not sure what I'm going to do yet. I like Vaughan but not his party choice or leader, but on the other hand I'm not a big fan of Cressy despite being usually an NDP voter. And in a year the riding will be split in two, so it's possible both men could end up in Parliament by 2015.

TC is going to be an open seat. I think the Liberals have some guy from the C.D. Howe Institute who was supposed to run in the more fitting riding of Don Valley West until former MP Rob Oliphant raised a fuss. There's a lot of pressure on Linda to run again but she has not yet confirmed she will do so.
 
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