A few catch-up thoughts:
-At this late date, it's a bit comic that the Province has clearly told Toronto that Cummer won't be built unless they pay for it and Toronto's response is a petition saying, "Yeah, but we think you should pay for it. " They won't. And the tunnel contracts are going out soon.
-The discussion about relative property tax rates is a red herring. It's at least as much about how Toronto chooses to spend its taxes. The Gardiner rebuild costs would fund several subway stations but that's not where they chose to direct the funds. In theory, Chow could try to up-end that but seems doubtful.
-As for this density talk... The 2 TOCs will each have 35,000 people - yes, eventually. By definition, those are the walkability numbers. The "5,500" stuff is effectively existing levels, excluding the TOCs, which are what justify the stations and which are the relevant numbers, if we're comparing apples here.
Key facts
- ~35,000 people within walking distance of the station*
- 1,200 customers will use the station during the busiest travel hour (1,100 getting on and 100 getting off the subway)**
- 1,200 daily transfers to and from buses**
- 9,000+ jobs in the area
Key facts
- ~35,000 people within walking distance of the station*
- 8,800 customers will use the station during the busiest travel hour (6,900 getting on and 1,900 getting off the subway)**
- 36,900 daily transfers to and from buses**
- 9,000+ jobs in the area*
- Transit connections:
- Richmond Hill GO train service
- Highway 407 GO bus service
- York Region Viva bus rapid transit
- Local York Region Transit bus service
- Future Highway 407 transitway service
And both areas are within larger Secondary Plan areas so probably it's closer to 50k each which absolutely dwarfs whatever might be coming to Cummer. This would probably be true even if Toronto ends up moving the North York Centre boundary but that seems unlikely
(You could try to say "Those are 2041 numbers!" but we all know transit projects don't open on time so 2041 will likely not be not be very long after the subway opens, when all is said an done.)
Now, the 2 stations are close so there is some overlap in the walk-sheds but that brings me to...
-I've posted the slide before so I won't do it again but Metrolinx's analysis of Cummer found that while there were plenty of residents within walking distance, 80% (if I recall correctly) were
also within walking distance of Steeles or Finch. That was the knock against it. It increases accessibility but adds very few new riders on its own. It would also be the knock against Bridge and High Tech except a) As I just pointed out, the numbers are so big at each station, the overlap helps rather than hinders and b) the TOC deals make those stations viable and c) so does the fact that they're at ground level and that much cheaper.
-So, the Finch/Steeles overlap is one Catch-22 for Cummer. The other is the picture posted above of all the development coming to Yonge/Cummer. If this was 10 years ago, probably IO would have made a deal with M2M efor a TOC and that would have meant bigger towers there and a station at Cummer. But paradoxically too much development is already there (or already approved) for them to make a TOC deal and being behind that curve has undermined the ability to fund the station. (By contrast, as we all know, there is no development yet at Bridge/High Tech and that's what made those TOCs possible.)
-To conclude: It's not that Cummer doesn't deserve a station or that.no one would use it if were built. It's that too many circumstances conspire against it making sense at this point. (A TOC at Steeles could be used to justify Cummer but it would have to happen soon and as far as we know, there isn't one in place so back to square one).
