Toronto Union Pearson Express | ?m | ?s | Metrolinx | MMM Group Limited

I noticed today on the VIA site that one can now book (VIA) trips from Pearson or Billy Bishop. From Pearson to Union via UPX and from BB by the free shuttle then onto a 'real train'.
 
TOareaFan said:
there is room for both....the fact that ML has been slow to increase the GO service does not change the value proposition/business case of the UP
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But it shows that Metrolinx is more interested in their pet project that expanding service. You tell us all the time Metrolinx doesn't extend service into Brampton but you're okay with the fact that pushed hard for the UPX. So why complain when you know they have other priorities?
 
denfromoakvillemilton said:
But it shows that Metrolinx is more interested in their pet project that expanding service. You tell us all the time Metrolinx doesn't extend service into Brampton but you're okay with the fact that pushed hard for the UPX. So why complain when you know they have other priorities?
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For your argument/shot at me to be accurate you would have to believe that if UP was not built there would be more service to Brampton now and I don't believe that at all.

What I do believe is that if UP was not built the whole GTS infrastructure build would still not have happened. Former GO head Gary McNeil and I had a long chat about GTS +/- 20 years ago. His/their position at the time was that the work that we later came to know as GTS would need to be done before any expansion of service was possible....AND that the justification for that work had to be that the demand was high on the Georgetown line that it alone warranted the +/- billion dollar expenditure.......and that, in his opinion, was never going to happen.

All that has changed now is that another project came along that needed that work....it got done....so, if anything, UP increased the possibility of improved GO service on the corridor.....all that is needed now is political will to turn that to increased probability.

But, back on topic of the discussion, critiquing UP with bad "studies" and falsehoods about prices is not going to magically make GO trains run....so it is a pointless exercise. The job is/should be to advocate/press for more GO trains....not tear down UP.
 
TOareaFan said:
For your argument/shot at me to be accurate you would have to believe that if UP was not built there would be more service to Brampton now and I don't believe that at all.

What I do believe is that if UP was not built the whole GTS infrastructure build would still not have happened. Former GO head Gary McNeil and I had a long chat about GTS +/- 20 years ago. His/their position at the time was that the work that we later came to know as GTS would need to be done before any expansion of service was possible....AND that the justification for that work had to be that the demand was high on the Georgetown line that it alone warranted the +/- billion dollar expenditure.......and that, in his opinion, was never going to happen.

All that has changed now is that another project came along that needed that work....it got done....so, if anything, UP increased the possibility of improved GO service on the corridor.....all that is needed now is political will to turn that to increased probability.

But, back on topic of the discussion, critiquing UP with bad "studies" and falsehoods about prices is not going to magically make GO trains run....so it is a pointless exercise. The job is/should be to advocate/press for more GO trains....not tear down UP.
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There is so much room in the Georgetown South corridor, and they are already going to add a 4th track. Its already planned to happen. There is so much room for expansion in that corridor there should be no talk about tearing down anything.
 
TOareaFan said:
For your argument/shot at me to be accurate you would have to believe that if UP was not built there would be more service to Brampton now and I don't believe that at all.

What I do believe is that if UP was not built the whole GTS infrastructure build would still not have happened. Former GO head Gary McNeil and I had a long chat about GTS +/- 20 years ago. His/their position at the time was that the work that we later came to know as GTS would need to be done before any expansion of service was possible....AND that the justification for that work had to be that the demand was high on the Georgetown line that it alone warranted the +/- billion dollar expenditure.......and that, in his opinion, was never going to happen.

All that has changed now is that another project came along that needed that work....it got done....so, if anything, UP increased the possibility of improved GO service on the corridor.....all that is needed now is political will to turn that to increased probability.

But, back on topic of the discussion, critiquing UP with bad "studies" and falsehoods about prices is not going to magically make GO trains run....so it is a pointless exercise. The job is/should be to advocate/press for more GO trains....not tear down UP.
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But we know that Bramlea will get all day service in the early 2020s. What about the rest of the line. I look at what's in front of me. In front of me I see buses to Kitchener and rail to the airport.
 
I largely agree with the argument that the issue is not UP, but the lack of other useful service on this corridor. That said, we currently have a vastly underused resource that could be providing some real short-term mobility benefits until RER or Smarttrack gets off the ground.

Why not allow travel between Bloor/Weston/Union for standard GO fares? (Weston-Union: $5.65; Bloor-Union: $5.30; less with PRESTO). Or extend the $60 GO Metropass sticker to be valid on UP from Bloor and Weston? Let UP continue to serve primarily as a premium airport service, but fill some empty seats, pull in some extra revenue, and perhaps most importantly, build some goodwill with the public.

Is there capacity? I think so:

UPX capacity = 672 pphpd (seated capacity with 3 car trainsets)
UPX projected peak hour ridership in 2020 = ~350 pphpd, or 52% utilization
(source: UPX Ridership Forecast)

The best GO station-level ridership numbers I could find were from a 2-year old Parking Plan. It shows current (2013) ridership of 368/day at Weston and 50/day at Bloor, over a 3-4 hour peak-only service, so about 150 pphpd at peak.

Obviously the 15 min all-day service on UP would attract some additional riders, but how many? Anyone commuting for a 9-5 job and willing to fork out GO fares is probably already using GO. Furthermore, it's not likely to be worth it to transfer from Dundas West to UP at Bloor. The greatest source of new ridership is likely people within walking distance of Bloor station who would convert from TTC to UP, or off-peak riders at Weston. How many would switch from TTC to UP? We have some data from the $60 sticker valid at Exhibition and Danforth: they've been selling about 70/month. Maybe UP does 5x as well because it comes twice as often as the Lakeshore trains and it's a nicer product? So another 350 pax/day, or conservatively about 150/hour at peak? (I recognize there's a lot of assumptions here, but I tried to be fairly pessimistic in my numbers. I don't do this for a living (or even a hobby). Feel free to tear them apart if you know better than I do.)

All told, I get another 300 pphpd at peak, assuming all the GO riders at Weston and Bloor switch to UP and we're 5x as effective at converting TTC riders compared to the Lakeshore line. In 2020, we have 650 pphpd at peak travel time, giving 96% utilization.

And hopefully by then we have some semblance of two-way all-day service on the Kitchener Line, so we can divert the non-airport traffic to other trains.
 
^there is nothing particularly wrong with what you are suggesting....it is certainly better than the idea of just charging ttc fares.....I had actually thought GO fares between Weston/Bloor/Union were going to be part of the Pan Am transportation plan and was surprised they were not.

Likely the only reluctance to doing what you suggest would be that if it is more successful than you think....and those $5 riders crowd out the $19 airport riders you cut into revenue but it is hard to turn back without a public backlash about the "new" higher pricing.
 
BurlingtonJames said:
Is there capacity? I think so:

UPX capacity = 672 pphpd (seated capacity with 3 car trainsets)
UPX projected peak hour ridership in 2020 = ~350 pphpd, or 52% utilization
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How can there be capacity, if there was reports today that it was standing room only today mid-afternoon - https://twitter.com/gmbutts/status/623571922266288128

Sure, there might be some pretty empty runs. But if there are some pretty full runs, how do you reduce fares, without leaving people behind?
 
nfitz said:
How can there be capacity, if there was reports today that it was standing room only today mid-afternoon - https://twitter.com/gmbutts/status/623571922266288128

Sure, there might be some pretty empty runs. But if there are some pretty full runs, how do you reduce fares, without leaving people behind?
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The funniest thing is reading how some accused the observation as one sample (which it is) but neglected to mention that the "study" is probably worse by being utterly unapologetic about its crap methodology.

AoD
 
BurlingtonJames said:
If we're taking anecdotes on Twitter as hard data, that was a one-off caused by some pretty severe delays: https://twitter.com/jim9991/status/623565640289402880
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Though at a delta of half an hour or so, we'd likely be looking at trains that are still performing above the loading cited by the TTC riders "study". Certainly I would be a tad concerned if it evolved into a standing room situation already (in the other way around)

AoD
 
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nfitz said:
Fair enough ... but delays are inevitable. Do they magically vanish if they lower the fares?
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I hear ya. But how much do we over-provision to accommodate the 1% case? (It's been 98.9% on time.) Certainly neither TTC nor GO are designed to surge 4 train-loads of passengers onto one train at rush hour.

FWIW, the figure I cited of 350 pphpd peak ridership in 2020 comes from the same study that projects 5000 riders/day by end of 2015. Crap on the methodology all you want, but ML seems pretty confident in those numbers.
 
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