Oct 10 Ontario Election: Predict the Result

[ShonTron]

Two months before the provincial election, here's the first poll - what do you think will be the result?

This poll will close on September 10 - I think it will be interesting to see what people think now, and what they in the month when the election approaches.

 

[Prometheus The Supremo]

i think it's gonna be a tight one. liberal minority.

 

[Tuscani01]

I was a strong John Tory supporter at the beginning of the year... but the Liberals have stepped up and bought my vote!

Im thinking another Liberal Majority.

 

[ShonTron]

I'm in a very strong Liberal riding - I kind of wished I lived where my vote meant more (a neighbouring riding went NDP since 2003). I think John Tory isn't as strong as many thought - he's been very quiet, certainly not even generating the excitement he should.

His one issue - funding religious schools - seems to get rave reviews in Thornhill, but otherwise (thankfully) appears to be a bit of a flop. Otherwise, he's not offering anything new.

That said, McGuinty isn't the strongest campaigner in the world, will have trouble shaking the not entirely deserved "broken promises" image. I figure a few more 905 seats, plus 2-3 Toronto seats will shift, making this tighter than 2003. It could be a majority, but I'm thinking strong-minority at the moment.

 

[dowlingm]

A Liberal minority with 1-2 Tory 416 seats would be the best outcome for Toronto. It would tell McGuinty our votes are not to be taken for granted and that we'd like some love like 519/905 gets.

 

[Tuscani01]

John Tory isn't as strong as many thought - he's been very quiet, certainly not even generating the excitement he should.

Thats exactly it! I expected more from him, and so far have got nothing which says "vote for me". It's still early though, so maybe he will have a few tricks up his sleeve to win me back.

 

[rbt]

I'm putting my money on Liberal Majority, or I would put $100 on it if the UBC Election Prediction website ran for Ontario elections, though I think I would prefer a Liberal Minority.

It would be pretty interesting politically to have the Federal Government, Quebec Government, and Ontario Government all with minority governments. Having one minority government is pretty rare, the 3 largest is a very significant statement of some kind or another.

Alberta is getting into the game too as the Conservatives are really taking a pounding there (probably not minority but certainly lots of lost seats coming up).

 

[caltrane74]

liberal minority

 

[unimaginative2]

A Liberal minority with 1-2 Tory 416 seats would be the best outcome for Toronto. It would tell McGuinty our votes are not to be taken for granted and that we'd like some love like 519/905 gets.

I don't know what 519 you're thinking of, but the one I know doesn't get too much love from the provincial government.

 

[Hydrogen]

McGuinty will probably slide in by the fact that his government has not done much in the last while. There is very little contoversy to stir up.

And yes, Tory has been disappointing. If he gets replaced, it will probably be by someone more right wing than him. Part of the problem for the Conservatives is that they are looking a little too much like the Liberals.

 

[Prometheus The Supremo]

i wonder what effect this... http://www.thestar.com/article/245367 ... will have on the vote?

when i heard about this plan, that's when i lost all "faith" in john tory. "mr lets cut the waste" is creating more waste and social problems. conservative decisions from the past always haunt us later in the future, be it davis' extended funding for catholic schools or harris' downloading on toronto.

i also don't buy the argument that "it's part of our history, it's been that way since confederation". denying the women the right to vote was part of our past; would we hang on to that aspect of our history until now? because it was part of our history? so because something is part of our past, it must always stay the same no matter what? doesn't leave much room for progress.

 

[Mike in TO]

I'm placing my bets on a Liberal Minority. I'm rather baffled by how quiet John Tory has been - I don't think he has a particularily strong team, but he is without a doubt the strongest leader of the three major parties. I'm concerned that if can't at least pull together a decent campaign that he'll be replaced with a radical right-wing clone of the Harris Breed. It has been encouraging to see him pull the party to the centre with a Bill Davis vision for the province... but I don't see McGuinty losing power unless his campaign falls off the rails. As for the NDP... the best thing they can do is replace Hampton right after the campaign - new blood is needed and their urban members/vote vs the north members/vote isn't helping the party create a strong identity or brand for itself.


Latest Ipsos-Ried Poll released on July 3rd:
Liberal 39%
PC 36%
NDP 17%
Green 7%
* note: Majority governments typically have a popular support of at least 43%-45%

 

[Observer Walt]

A Liberal minority is most likely.

I sense a lot of antipathy toward McGuinty. People don't trust him any more. However, Tory hasn't really been able to capitalize.

 

[gibsonm]

Not Sure About McGuinty

I've always been a left of centre voter, but I really found McGuinty's health tax too much. Everyone's so anti-Harris, but at least he did what he said he'd do. Don't forget the money his government put into Toronto's "cultural renaissance" (ROM, AGO, etc.), the creation of massive parklands in Ontario's north, and a general return to healthy economic conditions. I'll never forget Rae's final statements in the closing of his provincial political campain: If you vote NDP you won't lose OHIP. Wow, what a vision! That guy really sank Ontario's fortunes. The other thing about Harris was he worked with the federal government and then-mayor Mel Lastman on the Olympic bid AND ensured unprecedented investment in Toronto's waterfront. Think of all the waste in the current provincial and Toronto governments, particularly Toronto's headaches with CUPE, that are hobbling the city's ability to get things done. McGuinty and Miller are great at promising something to everyone but delivering little because they are politically hobbled by special interests. I still think of the $500.00 cheque the provincial Liberals delivered to every Ontario teacher with no strings attached. What political payoff. Okay, McGuinty gave us the Greenbelt, which didn't cost anything. Otherwise, what are his accomplishments? At least Tory understands Toronto needs. He did run for mayor. I hate to admit it, but I think that conservatives like Bill Davis and former Toronto mayor David Crombie probably accomplished more than anyone for Toronto

 

[The Mississauga Muse]

Provincial Support Insights Mississauga residents in Oct/Nov 2006 Environics survey

I'm placing my bets on a Liberal Minority. I'm rather baffled by how quiet John Tory has been - I don't think he has a particularily strong team, but he is without a doubt the strongest leader of the three major parties. I'm concerned that if can't at least pull together a decent campaign that he'll be replaced with a radical right-wing clone of the Harris Breed. It has been encouraging to see him pull the party to the centre with a Bill Davis vision for the province... but I don't see McGuinty losing power unless his campaign falls off the rails. As for the NDP... the best thing they can do is replace Hampton right after the campaign - new blood is needed and their urban members/vote vs the north members/vote isn't helping the party create a strong identity or brand for itself.


Latest Ipsos-Ried Poll released on July 3rd:
Liberal 39%
PC 36%
NDP 17%
Green 7%
* note: Majority governments typically have a popular support of at least 43%-45%

Thanks for sharing that July 3rd Ipsos-Reid poll.

Allow me to share one I managed to get using Freedom of Information. This is the one page I managed to secure from The Corporation of the City of Mississauga's (October/November 2006) Environics "Focus Ontario" Survey.

You can see the Provincial Support for 400 Mississauga residents surveyed by telephone back then.