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Liberal-NDP Coalition

The rub there, Keith, is that the construction industry appears to be operating at capacity at the moment. While that may change, it is not clear when it will and by how much. It seems the most prudent option would be for municipalities, hospitals, school boards, etc. to prepare plans for how money could be spent so that when the need arises for stimulus in the construction industry, spending/work can begin more quickly.

Realistically, this is something we should do every recession: take advantage of spare capacity to undertake expansion and maintenance of infrastructure. Savvy businesses do this by expanding when contractors are in bidding wars for projects and materials prices are depressed.
 
Most recent employment data shows that the construction industry is operating at capacity. I'm not saying that construction won't need any stimulus, I'm saying that it's not clear exactly when and how much it will need. Best to make the plans and proceed where appropriate in a more coordinated, tactical way.
 
BTW, the Star has one of the best pieces written on the lead up to the coalition, and real reasons behind how Harper operates and how he did this to himself.

Harper not only ignited a fire, he slapped the Liberal party into action and unity with not only itself, but the rest of the opposition. Its amazing (and gratifying) to see Harper go from a near-majority in October to another potential Conservative collapse within the past two weeks.

So here is the Star piece.

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/549448

PM PARTISAN, PASSIONATE AND PROFANE

Political crisis reveals a man who still finds it difficult to take counsel or admit his mistakes

"He just can't help himself."

So says one of Stephen Harper's long-time acquaintances, wryly noting the Prime Minister has few friends.

As Harper struggles to contain the national psychodrama he sparked, the amateur psychoanalysis is reaching a fever pitch.

No less a political sage than former Progressive Conservative prime minister Brian Mulroney has privately told at least two of his vast network of friends that he is disappointed in the man who was briefly his protegé.

Several sources told the Star that Mulroney, virtually excommunicated from the federal Conservatives over the lingering Airbus scandal, is flabbergasted over Harper's tactical blunder last week and not just because it recalled Joe Clark's miscalculation that cost the Tories power in 1979.

Mulroney's tutelage, especially his shrewd counsel on the electoral realities of Quebec and Ontario, helped sweep the Conservatives into office in 2006.

But in the subsequent estrangement comes this assessment:

"There's always been this concern that Harper believes he's the smartest guy in the room and that, no matter what, he's never wrong," confides the Harper acquaintance (who's also a Mulroney friend).

In interviews with federal associates of Harper, past and present, a picture emerges of a bright and driven man who does not take dissenting counsel especially well and is prone to profane outbursts.

"The people around him, the stable, has generally been bred for obedience, so that's what you get," says a confrere.

Another insider agrees "there's no question the Prime Minister rules by fear," which is not always productive.

"At some point, you know, you get up every day and you get kicked in the balls and, you know what, you get tired of it. So when people stop fighting back, I'm telling you, that's a most dangerous, dangerous, dangerous day," he says.

It was Harper who insisted that the Nov. 27 economic statement be used as a political weapon to bludgeon the Conservatives' foes.

While sources claim his chief of staff, Guy Giorno, and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty – seasoned veterans of government at Queen's Park – were less hawkish, the Prime Minister, ever the chief strategist, was convinced the provocative measures could withstand any challenge from the three opposition parties.

Harper was sure the Liberals, mired in a leadership contest, and the NDP and Bloc Québécois could never unite against him.

"Why let a good crisis go to waste when you can use it to hobble your opposition?" says a party insider.

That's how Flaherty wound up deriding "the free ride for political parties" last week and pledging to eliminate their $1.95-per-vote funding subsidy. That would have crippled the Liberals and the Bloc (to say nothing of the Greens).

Flaherty also vowed to "temporarily" suspend the right to strike of federal public servants and curb their ability to make pay-equity appeals through the courts, an anathema to the NDP.

And if that were not enough, there was no significant economic stimulus package to match what other countries have been implementing.

After that triple-whammy enraged and emboldened the Liberals, NDP and Bloc, the Tories retreated last weekend, but the coalition government-in-waiting had already been forged.

Conservative MPs this week publicly supported Harper's sharp criticism of the NDP-Liberal coalition, and prominent ministers such as Environment Minister Jim Prentice and Transport Minister John Baird took their message to the media. Some, like Public Safety Minister Peter Van Loan, voiced support for Harper.

But inside and outside the party, Harper was being blamed for precipitating the storm.

"It's not that he's never made mistakes before. He actually has made a number of them, but ... there's always been handy staff to blame it on," says a Tory.

"The big difference here is that the big flaming pile of s--- is squarely ... at his doorstep."

Sources say Harper was visibly shaken earlier in the week, angrily flouncing around his Langevin Block office, eyes reddened and battling a bad cold exacerbated by a lack of sleep.

He has displayed that almost adolescent blend of petulance and stubbornness before in his political life.

During the 2004 election campaign, the Conservative war room issued a news release suggesting then Liberal prime minister Paul Martin "supports child pornography."

Instead of immediately retracting and apologizing for the over-the-top attack, Harper stuck to his guns.

The controversy contributed to his defeat and Harper descended into a summer-long "funk," sulking about the outcome even though he had propelled the fledgling united Conservatives to the brink of government by reducing an 11-year Liberal majority to a minority.

The Prime Minister regained his stride late Monday. Infuriated by the Liberal-NDP-Bloc signing ceremony on Parliament Hill, he was in fighting form at the Conservatives' Christmas party that night, rallying dispirited MPs and staffers.

He further recovered with an unrepentant videotaped address to the nation Wednesday night and a successful plea Thursday to Governor General Michaëlle Jean to have Parliament suspended.

Yet even though he bought his government time until Jan. 26, his loyalists worry that he has done himself irreparable harm.

"He truly is ... politically brilliant, but he's also pathologically partisan. So he just can't help himself. It's a deadly combination. You know that you're a smart guy and you're pretty sure you can outsmart everybody and you never miss an opportunity to poke an opponent in the eye," says an insider.

An acquaintance agrees Harper's partisan blinders are self-destructive. "He cannot abide by the Liberals. He finds them indecisive, he finds them pandering, he wants to destroy them. He can't help himself – he just can't help himself."

Liberal MP Ken Dryden (York Centre) echoed that sentiment in the Commons on Wednesday.

"He cannot stop himself. He has this pathological inability to put aside politics – too bad for him and for all of us," Dryden said.

Indeed, Harper's hubris led to the disastrous decision to cut $45 million in arts funding before the Oct. 14 election, which resuscitated the Bloc, costing the Tories Quebec seats and any chance of a majority.

One associate rejects the charge from some Liberals and New Democrats that Harper is an unwavering neo-conservative hampered by his ideological rigidity.

"He is a pragmatist. There is some ideology there, of course, but he's always looking ahead," he says, emphasizing that the Nov. 27 economic statement seemed like a good idea at the time.

"You can screw the Liberals in the process and show leadership – and on paper the Conservatives are taking the biggest (funding) hit so you can certainly sell it to the public," the associate says, adding the change would have cost the Tories $10 million, the Liberals $7 million, the NDP $5 million and the Bloc $3 million. "But what he underestimated was just how bad off the Liberals actually are financially. If they didn't have that money, the banks would be in the next minute."

The fallout within the Prime Minister's Office has not been pretty.

"He is a yeller and certainly longshoremen could take language lessons from him. The backrooms are blue but it's not cigar smoke; it's four-letter words," says a Tory.

"I'm sure this is killing him in some ways. If he doesn't turn it around, if he doesn't pull it out of the fire then ... he goes down rivalling Joe Clark for the biggest boneheaded move in Canadian history."

Still, the fact that so many Conservatives would speak out about Harper only if their identities were protected is telling.

"That's an indication that people aren't quite willing to count him out just yet," says one such Tory. "He's still jumping around saying, 'I'm not dead yet.' "

Even if he is, as another party insider admits, "he's not Superman any more."
 
Most recent employment data shows that the construction industry is operating at capacity. I'm not saying that construction won't need any stimulus, I'm saying that it's not clear exactly when and how much it will need. Best to make the plans and proceed where appropriate in a more coordinated, tactical way.

As Beez points out:

Housing starts, condo developments, commercial build construction are all down, and predicted to drop hugely in 2009 and into 2010.

Housings starts are set to decline by about 100 000 next year and that's no small figure. That's about 30-35%. Then there's a similar decline in commercial construction, etc. And there's also a decline in the oil sectore where workers have similar skills. The construction industry can ramp up and down very fast. At capacity this month. The next month, they're all at home. I agree that every government and public sector body should be drawing up it's list of potential projects.

My argument against the coalition's proposition at present is that's its far too focused on 'building human capital'. That's euphemestic BS for new social spending in a time period when hard infrastructure should be priority. We should be putting all that spare construction capacity to work in about 2-3 months as they start getting laid off. Unfortunately I don't have faith in either side. The Conservatives will probably offer tax cuts as stimulus. And with the NDP attached at the hip, the Liberals might be compelled to blow money on social programs instead. The smart solution like what Obama has proposed south of the border will have no advocate in Canada.
 
BTW, the Star has one of the best pieces written on the lead up to the coalition, and real reasons behind how Harper operates and how he did this to himself.

That article is pretty pathetic 'journalism'. I guess objectivity is out the window with the star:rolleyes:

All politicians are power-hungry egomaniacs (Jack Layton, hello?).

Harper not only ignited a fire, he slapped the Liberal party into action and unity with not only itself, but the rest of the opposition. Its amazing (and gratifying) to see Harper go from a near-majority in October to another potential Conservative collapse within the past two weeks..

I'm not sure there is a great deal of 'unity' among the coalition, and it's going to be difficult to tell for a while yet just who is going to benefit from last week's events. Even if the current conservative minority falls it is unclear whether this will hurt or benefit the conservatives at the polls when the time comes. Post-coalition Ipsos Reid polls show the Conservatives would secure a majority if an election were held now...

Harper, Dion and Layton have all shown themselves to be out of touch: Harper in playing politics when he should have been addressing the economy, and the others in not disbanding their silly coalition once Harper backed off on his economic statement. If the coalition had been content to flex its muscles and then back off it would likely have had far more long-term credibility with the people. Unfortunately it ended up looking like a transparant grab for power by opportunistic politicians who had been planning a coup long before Harper ever uttered a word in parliament. Thank goodness the Canadian public is not as stupid as our politicians would like to believe!
 
That article is pretty pathetic 'journalism'. I guess objectivity is out the window with the star:rolleyes:

Has The Star ever been objective or anything above mediocre journalism? I remember back in high school and university, never being allowed to cite The Star as a source because most of my teachers and university profs considered it to be sub-par.
 
Well, that piece wasn't 'reporting', it was an opinion piece.
 
The coalition agreement will stand and in January the coalition will topple Harper and govern for 2 or so more years, until Iggy comes back with a liberal minority or majority.
 
The coalition agreement will stand and in January the coalition will topple Harper and govern for 2 or so more years, until Iggy comes back with a liberal minority or majority.

Given the polls, I doubt it. And by January, the GG may well consider the timeline to be long enough to require another election. I doubt Iggy wants to take that risk. And he looks like he's backing off already. As it stands, polls show that the coalition may well be unpopular enough to give Harper a majority. Toppling the government would be the wrong move.....especially while the recession has not set in. And while the BQ is benefiting from new found legitimacy. They can afford to wait until Liberal finances are better and the economy is weaker....then the Liberals won't need a coalition to defeat Harper.
 
Its analysis. :) And was pretty good at that.

Hardly spectacular analysis to say that Harper has an arrogant personality that resulted in him going a mile too far. Any grade school kid who's been reading the papers could have told you that.
 
Given the polls, I doubt it. And by January, the GG may well consider the timeline to be long enough to require another election. I doubt Iggy wants to take that risk. And he looks like he's backing off already. As it stands, polls show that the coalition may well be unpopular enough to give Harper a majority. Toppling the government would be the wrong move.....especially while the recession has not set in. And while the BQ is benefiting from new found legitimacy. They can afford to wait until Liberal finances are better and the economy is weaker....then the Liberals won't need a coalition to defeat Harper.

A couple of things:

-the GG would still likely ask the coalition to form government. In January it will have been four months, and the government has yet to pass a single piece of substantive legislation, and the Parliament has hardly sat for two weeks. Actually, we'll have gone about 8 months without Parliamentary action in this country, at a time that has seen the economic outlook grow progressively worse and worse.

-the BQ is benefitting from Harper's huge F-U to Quebec last week.
 
Iggy will keep up the appearance of the coalition for now in order to extract some budgetary 'goodies' from Harper. Then when the time comes he will allow it to pass so that he can get to work on the task of returning the Liberals to respectability.
 
Well if Iggy stays with the Coalition, Liberal support will stay flat.

IF they wait till the end of this year for an election, I think Iggy standing alone could get the Liberals up to 100 seats and deny Harper a majority.
 

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