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Did Hudak just shoot himself in the foot?

kEiThZ said:
I find it laughable that people think Hudak shot himself in the foot with this proposal.
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Sure, it will have its supporters but anyone doing an ounce of analysis certainly wouldn't find the proposition that this may backfire as "laughable".

Think about it.

Hudak is the premier-in-waiting. He's moderate, suburban, youngish with a wife and kid, well-spoken and decent looking. He was the perfect PC leadership candidate. He has everything going for him.

The Conservatives have the rural vote, the NDP has the downtown and north vote, the Libs have a bit of everything so the place they really need to hold on to is the centre-hugging TO burbs.

That means the NDP is out of contention right off the bat, so on a very basic level, all he has to do is not be McGuinty and not be Harris to win. (Rae is so far off the map no-one has to worry about being him! ;) ) Hudak needs to make himself as palatable to that ethnically, socially and financially diverse group as possible, as 'un-scary' as he can be, just different enough to get his members elected but not so different as to make him look like a yahoo. And he's done that well.

Harper won those burbs handily but he didn't do it by throwing out polarizing ideas from his Alliance days. What does Hudak do? Goes all zero-sum politics by coming out with something noticeably polarizing that they're already slowly massaging from being mandatory to voluntary. Hello? Is John Tory in the house? ;)

You bet your sweet bippy that there will be plenty of people who like this, but the problem is that plenty of that plenty might already be voting for him.

If you're gonna give someone something to love, you gotta make sure it's not giving someone something to really hate. And if it does, you gotta hope that more of the first group aren't already voting for you.

This could be tactical genius - it could be the thing that really sets him apart - but he's also gotta hope that he doesn't get followed around all election by a bunch of people in hoops and shackles singing 'O Brother Where Art Thou?'... ;)
 
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Eug said:
Hmmm... That's starting to sound pretty sexist. I make more than my significant other, but at my workplace most of my female colleagues make more than their husbands.
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Same at my workplace, but the elastic secondary income in a marriage still largely falls to wives. The policy doesn't aim to be sexist, but the results sure don't do much for equality.

http://www.jstor.org/pss/2523803
 
Hudak should visit a provincial prison. The public needs to educate itself about our federal prison system as well, I recommend following the Ashley Smith inquiry as a starting point.
There is a huge risk in putting inmates out on our streets for work purposes, they tend to bring contraband back to the prison. If there is a will there is a way and the demand is very high for contraband behind the prison walls, the pressure on these inmates is very high to deliver the goods. Just because a person is convicted to serve a sentence up to 2 years less one day does not suggest to me that this offender is a low risk or a petty criminal, think about it, perhaps a good lawyer or maybe a very bad case presented by the crown? Classification of offenders to work even inside the prison walls is a risk. Who do you think prepares the food or collects the garbage or does the laundry within prisons? The inmates do. They also make the clothes on their backs as well as the bedding and the towels they use. Did I mention they make the mattress they sleep on as well? Provincial jails make all the license plates in the province and several other items. There are work programs within the provincial system. The educational programs are also expanding in a big way. It's always rewarding to see adults leave prison with their HS diplomas!
It is odd when I read that cable television is a huge issue. I suspect the tough guy always picks the channel to be watched and knowing the system like I do, I know the viewing pleasure is very limited. The gym is another issue that is misunderstood by the public. Recreational programs involving sports equipment is very limited and reserved for those working and usedfor no more than one to two hours per week!! Bottom line no matter what offense brings a person to prison, that person has to watch their back because they never know who they could be sharing a cell with! We can only judge others by the information collected and most times background information is very limited. Hudak needs to visit the provincial prison system and stop relying on what civil servants who never walk among inmates have to say. Work should be expanded within our prisons but not as a form of punishment but instead as a skills training ground.
 
grey said:
Same at my workplace, but the elastic secondary income in a marriage still largely falls to wives.
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Particularly outside of the big urban centres the disparity is greater than in TO or Ottawa (although I'd assume that's very slowly changing with the death of unionized manufacturing work).
 
grey said:
Same at my workplace, but the elastic secondary income in a marriage still largely falls to wives. The policy doesn't aim to be sexist, but the results sure don't do much for equality.

http://www.jstor.org/pss/2523803
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I agree. But that's not how it will be received by voters. Do you think married couples are going to say, "Screw it. This is sexist." and not think about what the tax cut could do for them?

Unfortunately, this is a policy that will sell.

The more I look at the situation, the more I fear that Hudak's going to take this. McGuinty has several broken promises (and worst of all they are on the taxation side). And while he has had sound economic policies, voters won't be feeling them by the time the election comes. His nanny-state laws piss off even reasonably moderate folks who probably don't care much for politics otherwise.

And when it comes to campaigning, the Liberals are already trying the, "He's Mike Harris, part deux. " line. That's not going to work. The fearmongering didn't work for their federal cousins. It's not going to work for McGuinty's crew. Premier Dad needs to shift to the right a little (maybe just ease up on the incessant desire to have Ontarian run around in foam padding), and come up with a platform that has a strong message and vision. If he doesn't do that, I expect a re-run of the federal election.
 
I think everyone sort of expects Hudak to take it, if for no other than because the Liberals have been in power for almost a decade and fatigue has set in.

That said, I wouldn't underestimate the OPC's ability to screw up what should be a sure-thing.

Also, at some point the public will have to wake up and realize that conservative politicians promising more services and lower taxes are proposing the impossible, right? Hudak's economic plan is, by any objective standard, terrible.
 
And the added imponderable is: esp. after the federal election, how will the ONDP do? They, more than any Team Dalton cocking-up, may be the biggest barrier to a PC sure thing (or at least, a PC majority sure thing)
 
The Ontario NDP still strikes me as behind-the-times, leaning heavily on the old-guard union stuff. It would be nice if they could be more urban-focused. Horwath doesn't strike me as a particularly inspiring leader, but then we've never seen her campaign as leader before.
 
adma said:
And the added imponderable is: esp. after the federal election, how will the ONDP do? They, more than any Team Dalton cocking-up, may be the biggest barrier to a PC sure thing (or at least, a PC majority sure thing)
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You sure about this? I could see the ONDP actually helping the PCs to a majority.
 
adma said:
Or, they could steal their populist thunder and drive them to a minority, or worse.
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Meh. Wishful thinking. That's your NDP hopefulness. But I don't see that as being a realistic outcome, given the trends at the federal and municipal level.
 
I don't think Hudak shot himself in the foot over his chain-gang proposal. I think where he may have shot himself in the foot is his proposed welfare reform which requires that claimants be residents of Ontario for a minimum of one year.

It is not clear from his one-sentence proposal who would be included in this reform.

Presumably it would apply to Canadians travelling from another province and settling in Ontario but what about refugees? Government sponsored refugees are supported directly by the Federal government but those who claim refugee status after arriving in Canada rely on provincial welfare support. Is Hudak proposing to cut this group off?

Somehow I doubt it since new Canadians were absolutely crucial to giving the Federal Conservatives a majority - look at all the seats that went Conservative in the 905 belt. Just a week ago Jason Kenney reminded the Provincial conservatives that the new Canadian vote will be crucial for a victory.

Hudak hasn't clarified who is covered by this reform. If it includes refugee claimants he will have antagonized many new Canadians. If it only applies to movement between provinces Hudak will be seen as attacking poor Canadians while giving exemptions to refugees.
 
kEiThZ said:
Meh. Wishful thinking. That's your NDP hopefulness. But I don't see that as being a realistic outcome, given the trends at the federal and municipal level.
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Note: "minority or worse" doesn't mean it'll be 1990 all over again under Horwath. But a Laytonmania (should that sustain itself, a la Alexamania's effect on Nova Scotia in the late 90s) washover together with residual incumbent-government Liberal strength means it's also hardly a guaranteed Hudak landslide.

Besides, "populist thunder" is a funny thing--the Sun's Christina Blizzard said some almost endorseably good things about her retiring political opposite number Peter Kormos a few days ago...
 
If we're talking trends, the Conservatives increased their support by about 2% in the last election, where the NDP surged by 12.5%. There's not much of an argument to be made claiming that the country swung to the right in the last election.
 
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