News   May 13, 2024
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Clinton says U.S. could "totally obliterate" Iran

But the trick is to be critical of them in a way that doesn't feed into the (very, very, very understandable) Jewish instinct to assume that the world is irretrievably biased against Israel and hence against Jews. That contributes to a bunker mentality in Israel, and a my-(second) country-right-or-wrong sentiment among Jews everywhere. And of course that benefits the right wing, the hardliners, the Likudniks, whose policies come out of that feeling in many ways.

The way to do that is, frankly, to tone down the rhetoric about a dozen notches. Throwing around words like "apartheid," questioning Israel's status as a democracy, and focussing on it as though it were the only country in the world--let alone the developed world--which has ever done anything wrong or killed people unnecessarily, and so on, is absolutely the wrong approach. So is criticizing it as some kind of American protectorate, a notion that should make Canadians blush pretty red.

Israelis--and it is Israelis, as in Israeli voters, Jewish and Muslim and Christian and atheist--need to feel like a) their country is being judged by a fair standard, and b) like the world understands the unique circumstances of their existence before things will really change. I think it's pretty fair for people who send their kids to the army, who have seen multiple invasions in living memory, who for a long time were worried that getting on a bus or going to a bar would mean getting blown up, and whose country was born out of the greatest genocide in human history, to feel like a lot of European and North American critics of the way they do things are way out of their depth.

Once progressives in the west dial things down to the point where that's no longer true then they will be able to find allies within the Israeli political system and actually change things for the Palestinians for the better.
 
Hillary has totally lost the Democratic nomination at this juncture, so her comments are all but irrelevent now.
 
Note: if she sticks out her tongue and goes BARRR-ACK!, it doesn't mean she's endorsing him
 
There seems to be a lot of rumors going around that Obama is anti-Israel and pro-Hamas but there's no evidence to suggest that he's "anti-Israel." And despite all this, Obama seems to be roughly splitting the Jewish vote with Clinton in the primaries.
 
The states with higher Jewish populations, Obama stands to win strongly this fall. When Jewish populations come to mind, New York, Illinois, and California stick out in my mind.

Florida, to a lesser extent, is also a Jewish population center in and around Miami, so this is the state Obama will need to focus on. But for reasons well beyond Jewish voters. The south Florida Cuban vote is very conservative, atypical of latin americans in the United States. The upper part of Florida north of Orlando is for all intents and purposes traditionally southern and there is no difference between Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola Beach, Florida. Jacksonville has more in common with Charlotte than anywhere else in Florida.

Florida, with a dauntingly huge population of 16 million, has a lot of electoral votes, and if Obama just wins the state he can turn a corner. Its one of the 5 largest states, he needs to win it.
 
The 10 largest states, and how I see their possibility:

1) California - definately Obama
2) Texas - definately McCain
3) New York - definately Obama
4) Florida - possibly Obama, but McCain has a strong chance
5) Illinois - definately Obama
6) Pennsylvania - likely Obama, McCain has a real chance though
7) Ohio - likely Obama, McCain has a real chance like PA
8) Michigan - most likely Obama, unless the state is more racially defined than most northern states and it becomes a surprise
9) New Jersey - most likely Obama
10) Georgia - definately McCain

Out of the top 10 states, Obama needs to focus on Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan. These 4 states are going to make or break this fall. If Obama only loses Georgia and Texas in the top 10, you can safely call the election early on.
 
Yeah, the only state with a significant Jewish vote that is up for grabs is Florida. I don't think Obama has the "Jewish problem" some are suggesting but if he pulls say below the normal level, say 70%, that could contribute to McCain winning that state.

Obama can win just by taking Ohio. I'm pretty confident that Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico will swing given how close those states were last time.
 
I don't think many European or North American progressives question Israel's right to exist, except those on the fringe far left. But, yes, the 'blank cheque' for Israel approach has been disasterous. The message that you don't have to support Israeli politics to be a good Jew also has to get out there.

I don't think that many Jews actually vote based on Israel, and especially not "Israel right or wrong." If that were the case, George Bush would have gotten a lot more than the 22 percent he received in the last presidential election given that we heard all this talk about him being the most pro-Israel president in history, etc. Nor do I think Harper's goading of the Israelis in a war against Lebanon that turned out to be a total fiasco going to get that many Canadian Jews to drop everything else and drop Tory. The so-called neocons may have a lot of prominence but they represent a small minority of North American Jews.
 
I don't think that many Jews actually vote based on Israel, and especially not "Israel right or wrong." If that were the case, George Bush would have gotten a lot more than the 22 percent he received in the last presidential election given that we heard all this talk about him being the most pro-Israel president in history, etc. Nor do I think Harper's goading of the Israelis in a war against Lebanon that turned out to be a total fiasco going to get that many Canadian Jews to drop everything else and drop Tory. The so-called neocons may have a lot of prominence but they represent a small minority of North American Jews.

Most American jewish people lived their entire lives here, or some of the elderly populations moved here during WWII from Europe to escape the oppression. Its just natural that most in the Jewish community don't vote based on direct Israel policy. Even so, Obama's foreign policy is rooted in rationality and peace, and what left wing Jew can't admire peace and rational thought? C'mon, McCain is never going to win a majority of Jewish voters. He's having to pander to his right wing Christian base just to get noticed. LOL That's more unattractive to Jewish voters than anything Obama may have done.
 
I didn't realize Israel and foreign policy was an issue in the last provincial election. What was the difference between John Tory and Dalton McGuinty on Israel?
 
It isn't about Israel per se, it's about the "private school funding" pandering issue...
 
Unless Obama promises to fund only Catholic parochial schools and McCain promises to fund all religious schools, I fail to see the point.

John Tory is the Red Tory par excellence and given that there didn't appear to be much difference between Tory and McGuinty except that one was wanted to fund all religious schools and the other supported funding for Catholic schools only. I don't see how there's a left/right difference between the two positions, it's just that Tory's idea was extremely unpopular among the electorate, but did resonate with Jews who send their kids to day schools as well as some Jews who felt, quite understandly I think, that it was unfair that the only religious schools funded were Catholic ones, even though I personally oppose funding for all religious schools (including the separate schools).

Provincial results don't always translate into federal, as you well know. And since Harper referred to the Israeli attack on Lebanon as a "measured response" and two Jewish billionaires decided to become Tories, there have been two byelections in ridings with a sizable Jewish vote - Outremont and Willowdale. In both cases, the Tory candidate tried to milk the pro-Israel stance for all it was worth. In Outremont, the Conservative vote fell to below 10% and in Willowdale, the Tories didn't make any gains either.
 

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