Toronto Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport | ?m | ?s | Ports Toronto | Arup

[Civdis]

How about using hamilton as a hub? Maybe this way, we could finally see an upgraded terminal and maybe put to rest the silly idea of building a new airport in Pickering. The greater population density is to the west of Toronto and Hamilton is an old established city that deserves a real airport.

 

[DavidJamesTO]

Hamilton would be my choice. They could make it the hub for the discount and charter flights, sort of like Stansted for London. If they need to clear some capacity, move some of the cargo flights to London or Waterloo.

 

[AirlineGeek]

I don't think Winnipeg is would ever be feasible from Toronto unless it's going to go with their Thunder Bay route, but it would take too long (the Q400s are slower and the stop woudl take too long). The same goes for the Ottawa-Winnipeg route: Although it can make it, it woudl take much longer than anyone flying in a Jet, so wouldn't be worthwhile. The Q400s are best suited to small hops.

They do fly more than 500 miles regularly. Myrtle Beach is 700 miles and Halifax (they fly direct at times) is nearly 800. I think they're restricting the seats though.

With their hub at a non-jet location such as YTZ, I doubt they'd invest in any jets in the near future. It was probably just something that was said to detract attention. Instead, I suspect they'll wait until they have a second hub (possibly in Ottawa with their lounge and new routes from there), and then consider the possibility of become a national player.

While other airlines are trying to get into the airport, I suspect they'll do everything they can to max out their capacity of the airport, which they'll need more turbosprops for (their original aircraft order is nearly filled I think). AC must be a huge risk to Porter with their Aeroplan and business customers that are contracted to use them.

 

[TOareaFan]

How about using hamilton as a hub? Maybe this way, we could finally see an upgraded terminal and maybe put to rest the silly idea of building a new airport in Pickering. The greater population density is to the west of Toronto and Hamilton is an old established city that deserves a real airport.

Do you mean as a Toronto area hub for Porter? If so I don't see it ever happening. An airline built on offering Toronto passengers a more convenient alternative to Pearson is not likely to move to a significantly less convenient location.....and since Porter likely does not need two Toronto area operations....I don't see them ever flying out of Hamilton.

If they ever did jets....and those jets were based in, say, Ottawa...they might establish an Ottawa to Hamilton service but only on a very lmited basis and certainly not using Hamilton as a hub.

 

[EnviroTO]

If Porter creates a new hub it would likely compliment their existing operations. Their biggest market is Toronto by far. If they do create a hub for long haul it is most likely to be at Pearson not as a connecting service to Toronto Island but to compliment it by offering its existing customers ways to fly to further destinations directly and get Porter's rewards. In Ottawa and Montreal there is less reason to choose Porter over Air Canada which already provides service to large number of Canadian and US locations at both airports, but in Toronto they can use Toronto Island as a lure to get people to switch to Porter and then keep them for long haul at Pearson. Connecting services through both Toronto Island and Toronto Pearson could be made from Ottawa and Montreal. Toronto is Porter's primary market so until they have fully served Toronto it is unlikely they will hub anywhere else. Torontonians aren't going to use Porter in large numbers to fly somewhere indirectly through a hub airport somewhere else when Air Canada's hub is here.

 

[sjc]

In Ottawa and Montreal there is less reason to choose Porter over Air Canada which already provides service to large number of Canadian and US locations at both airports.....Torontonians aren't going to use Porter in large numbers to fly somewhere indirectly through a hub airport somewhere else when Air Canada's hub is here.

I think that the increasing service to Halifax is proving these statements wrong. They are filling planes from Ottawa to Halifax with people from either Toronto (choosing to have an extra stop) or Ottawa (choosing Porter over Air Canada). The stop in Ottawa on the YTZ-YHZ service is usually only a half hour and Ottawa isn't particularly out of the way.

For most potential destinations from Toronto, I would choose Porter with one stop, or even a relatively short connection time, over having to travel to Pearson to take Westjet or Air Canada (assuming the price is relatively comparable). If it would require a longer connection, I might consider going through Pearson to get a non-stop -- on the other hand, a few hours sitting in the Porter Lounge in Ottawa isn't unbearable.

 

[Mapleson]

I don't think Winnipeg is would ever be feasible from Toronto unless it's going to go with their Thunder Bay route, but it would take too long (the Q400s are slower and the stop woudl take too long). The same goes for the Ottawa-Winnipeg route: Although it can make it, it woudl take much longer than anyone flying in a Jet, so wouldn't be worthwhile. The Q400s are best suited to small hops.

They fly service to St. John's NL out of Ottawa and Halifax. They could run Winnipeg flights out of Ottawa, Thunder Bay or Sudbury. Toronto-St.John's is approximately the same trip length as Toronto-Winnipeg. Given the same per capita trip demand and spending behaviour (big given), you have more than twice the potential (ignoring the stop-over point).

They do fly more than 500 miles regularly. Myrtle Beach is 700 miles and Halifax (they fly direct at times) is nearly 800. I think they're restricting the seats though.

With their hub at a non-jet location such as YTZ, I doubt they'd invest in any jets in the near future. It was probably just something that was said to detract attention. Instead, I suspect they'll wait until they have a second hub (possibly in Ottawa with their lounge and new routes from there), and then consider the possibility of become a national player.

While other airlines are trying to get into the airport, I suspect they'll do everything they can to max out their capacity of the airport, which they'll need more turbosprops for (their original aircraft order is nearly filled I think). AC must be a huge risk to Porter with their Aeroplan and business customers that are contracted to use them.

Porter currently has 18 planes and has ordered the remaining 2 aircraft on their current order.

Given the capacity restrictions at TCCA, Porter is best served by turning it into a feeder airport to a larger hub. With 102,200 slots last year and 20 Q400s, you could provide flights every 15 minutes to where you like. In that scenario, Hamilton makes sense by servicing the centre and west end of the GTHA. Ottawa also makes a lot of sense as a hub. The ARL is a blessing for Porter if they ever start larger flights out of PIA as their hub, so I'd expect them to do that after the Pan Am Games.

 

[sjc]

Porter is best served by turning it into a feeder airport to a larger hub.....In that scenario, Hamilton makes sense by servicing the centre and west end of the GTHA. Ottawa also makes a lot of sense as a hub.

Ottawa is a good candidate for being a hub (and has already started being so with a lounge and flights to multiple destinations) because increased feeder flights from YTZ also provide for more YTZ-YOW frequency to serve the local Toronto-Ottawa commuter traffic. Their startup of YUL-YHZ service suggests that they might consider similar expansion in Montreal.

Hamilton wouldn't be as good an idea as there would be very little O&D traffic between YTZ and YHM due to the cost. It is best to have a hub where there is O&D traffic, so that you can fill the seats on all legs of the trip.

Thunder Bay would be my suggestion as a hub in the west -- they could serve Edmonton, Calgary, Saskatoon, Regina, Winnipeg (even Yellowknife and/or Iqaluit) from there with Q400s. Of course, since they would need new planes to add very many of those routes, they would be good candidates for any jets (perhaps some C300s?) Porter might buy.

 

[sjc]

The TPA has made an official call for RFPs from airlines wishing to come into the BBTCA.

90 new slots will be available in addition to the existing 112 being used by Porter, for a total of 202.

The two airlines which have proposed new service (Air Canada and an unnamed US carrier) want 100 slots between them.

http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/April2010/09/c9135.html

To minimize impact on the BBTCA's neighbouring community, all new commercial slots granted will be for "Daytime Operations". Daytime Operations as defined by Transport Canada and the Federal Aviation Administration are flights that operate between 7 a.m. and 10 p.m. No new commercial slots will be awarded for the periods of 6:45 a.m. to 7 a.m. and 10 p.m. to 11 p.m., which are referred to as "Night Operations." The BBTCA does not permit scheduled commercial traffic between 11 p.m. and 6:45 a.m. At the present time, seven Night Operation slots are utilized by the existing commercial carrier.

The release mentions that one Night Operation equals 16 Daytime Operations, so perhaps in the future (when it gets new planes), Porter could flips its 7 night ops into 112 extra daytime ones.

 

[Mapleson]

In theory, yes, but I would suspect they would run into other capacity constraints than noise.

 

[EnviroTO]

I think that the increasing service to Halifax is proving these statements wrong. They are filling planes from Ottawa to Halifax with people from either Toronto (choosing to have an extra stop) or Ottawa (choosing Porter over Air Canada). The stop in Ottawa on the YTZ-YHZ service is usually only a half hour and Ottawa isn't particularly out of the way.

If Porter is filling planes from Ottawa to Halifax they are doing it more on price than convenience or loyalty. When you provide better convenience and have greater loyalty then you can improve margins, when you compete on price in an open market the competition can make it unprofitable for you. Air Canada is getting Q400s so it will be able to offer a lower price point in the same aircraft by not having a Porter lounge and greater loyalty through Aeroplan and Star Alliance. In Ottawa price will matter more because there are more Aeroplan members than those who find Porter more convenient. It is convenience at Toronto Island that has allowed Porter to exist.

Hamilton and Thunder Bay are awful hubs because that isn't where people want to go. There is very little O&D traffic there. Pittsburgh has a great hub style airport and a population far greater than Hamilton or Thunder Bay but it sits relatively empty because it isn't a big O&D market. Hubs outside of Toronto don't make sense for Porter because the largest city is Toronto and that is where its customers are. There is serious capacity limitations flying Q400s to a hub to try and fill larger long range aircraft. If one Cseries aircraft load of passengers is to go to Los Angeles you would need two Q400s to leave the island at the same time to meet it. That is incredibly inefficient. The biggest O&D market in Canada is Toronto... you can't fly your smaller aircraft out of the biggest market to meet larger aircraft.

 

[sjc]

Hamilton and Thunder Bay are awful hubs because that isn't where people want to go. There is very little O&D traffic there.

Thunder Bay has one big advantage -- it is in range to almost everywhere in Canada and the northwestern US for a Q400 (and likely the C-Series) without being too far out of the way.

If one Cseries aircraft load of passengers is to go to Los Angeles you would need two Q400s to leave the island at the same time to meet it.

All of the passengers don't need to come from Toronto. Have the C-series start in Ottawa or Montreal and stop in Thunder Bay on the way to somewhere else.

If you have incoming flights from Ottawa, Montreal, Toronto, Chicago (and Newark/Boston)? and Halifax and outgoing flights to Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Regina, Calgary and Edmonton, you wouldn't need a lot of O&D Thunder Bay traffic to make it work.

I wonder if Chicago could be made into a hub. Are Canadian airlines allowed to use US cities for connections to and from Canada? (ie YTZ-MDW-YVR). If you could get the Canadians to set up a Canadian preclearance area in Chicago, perhaps you could do it without going through US customs (it wouldn't really be very popular otherwise).

 

[Darwinkgo]

There is a sheer number of slots and therefor seats limited out of YTZ that is true, so I would guess expansion beyond YTZ would first involve perhaps YHU St Hubert Airport, along with building a small terminal if needed. Could provide shuttle buses from the Longueuil metro stop or the even closer 'Go Train' style stop depending on how frequent it runs.

In either case, YHU or YUL there is no reason Montreal passengers bound to Boston or New York should route through Toronto, and depending on route planning perhaps until Ottawa can support a couple flights a day direct they should be routed through Montreal aswell. No reason to move anyone through the island that doesn't want to be in Toronto unless you have excess capacity you couldn't sell to O&D traffic.

I could see Porter trying to set up in the Calgary-Vancouver-Edmonton triangle, but that market might chew them up and spit them out. Once a western and a non island eastern network is in place I could see a jet connection between them.

 

[EnviroTO]

Thunder Bay has one big advantage -- it is in range to almost everywhere in Canada and the northwestern US for a Q400 (and likely the C-Series) without being too far out of the way.

Pittsburgh is in range of the US northeast, has a population significantly larger than Thunder Bay, and has an airport designed to be a hub... but it is not a hub. If Pittsburgh doesn't make a good hub then Thunder Bay makes a pathetic hub.

All of the passengers don't need to come from Toronto. Have the C-series start in Ottawa or Montreal and stop in Thunder Bay on the way to somewhere else.

One sixth of Canada's population lives in the GTA. Hubs work because (a) they are located with significant O&D traffic and (b) the spokes on the network have capacity adequately sized to serve the markets they reach. A spoke to Toronto of a Q400 is inadequate for a hub operation.

If you have incoming flights from Ottawa, Montreal, Toronto, Chicago (and Newark/Boston)? and Halifax and outgoing flights to Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Regina, Calgary and Edmonton, you wouldn't need a lot of O&D Thunder Bay traffic to make it work.

Using your example the average limit of passengers per bank at the hub would be 14 from Toronto to any of those western destinations (e.g. 70 pax / 5 possible destinations). A hub operation which can only have an average 14 people per bank going Toronto-Calgary is inefficient. To match the capacity of a single Toronto-Calgary CS100 flight from Pearson (using 100 pax to allow for Porter's extra leg room), it would require 7 flights of a Q400 to Thunder Bay. Westjet has 952 non-stop seats to Calgary each day so to handle a similar capacity there would need to be over 50 Q400 flights to Thunder Bay per day from the island. That is a bad idea.

I wonder if Chicago could be made into a hub. Are Canadian airlines allowed to use US cities for connections to and from Canada? (ie YTZ-MDW-YVR). If you could get the Canadians to set up a Canadian preclearance area in Chicago, perhaps you could do it without going through US customs (it wouldn't really be very popular otherwise).

Airlines are not allowed to sell CAN-USA-CAN flights nor USA-CAN-USA. With the latest treaty they can sell both CAN-USA-INTL and USA-CAN-INTL for airlines of both CAN and USA. Prior to this CAN airlines could not sell CAN-USA-INTL and USA airlines could not sell USA-CAN-INTL.

 

[sjc]

If Pittsburgh doesn't make a good hub then Thunder Bay makes a pathetic hub.

The difference is that there are a number of cities that are just as good as Pittsburgh as a hub. There aren't many places that you can fly to from Pittsburgh that you can't fly to from Cleveland, Philadelphia, Detroit, etc. (speaking about aircraft range, not currently available airline service). The alternatives to Thunder Bay are much fewer (and much smaller) -- Ottawa is closer to eastern cities but could put several western cities out of range(depending on the aircraft), while you can't get to Winnipeg with a Q400.

Using your example the average limit of passengers per bank at the hub would be 14 from Toronto to any of those western destinations (e.g. 70 pax / 5 possible destinations). A hub operation which can only have an average 14 people per bank going Toronto-Calgary is inefficient.

You could increase the number of Toronto passengers by increasing the number of flights to Thunder Bay. You would also be able to add in passengers from the east (Ottawa, Montreal, Halifax) heading to the west (Saskatoon, Edmonton, etc.) and the reverse (passengers that never come near Toronto).

One sixth of Canada's population lives in the GTA.

That would mean that five sixths of Canada's population does not live in the GTA.

Airlines are not allowed to sell CAN-USA-CAN flights

Does this apply to both US-based airlines and Canadian-based airlines? I thought it was only US airlines that couldn't route through the US. Canadian airlines generally would not want to since it would mean pushing your passengers through immigration/customs twice when they wouldn't normally have had to go through it at all.