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Baby, we got a bubble!?

Just an observation, I could be wrong... but I noticed, I think that there are alot more one bedroom condo on mls.ca listed for under $300K in the downtown core, (which I consider Annex to Don Valley and south of Bloor) than in Sept and October. And I believe there are more 2 bedroom condo listed lower than $450K.

I wonder if the January sales will reflected the lower listing prices???... and what might this have on the average sales price in February and March... and I'm just wondering if anyone else has noticed this? Or am I just crazy???
 
I think it's simply a case of more inventory on the market. Also, I've already seen quite a few cases of bidding wars this month likely due to the fear of many buyers reading about the low supply high demand scenario we've been seeing. Without going through actual numbers, it appears more and more people are listing their properties, probably at the insistance of their agent, to try to capitalize on this perceived urgency.
 
I think it's simply a case of more inventory on the market. Also, I've already seen quite a few cases of bidding wars this month likely due to the fear of many buyers reading about the low supply high demand scenario we've been seeing. Without going through actual numbers, it appears more and more people are listing their properties, probably at the insistance of their agent, to try to capitalize on this perceived urgency.

Or the media scaring them with all this bubble talk.
 
south etobicoke area could be a bubble. There was a huge influx of investors snapping up places at Beyond the Sea, California and South Beach.

There's over 90 units available at Beyond the Sea and there is another tower that is finishing up. Over 40 units in the iLoft complex with the investor heavy California set to close sometime this year (100+ units coming on). South Beach with 2 towers set to close this year will also pump another 50-60 units. This small area looks like a prime area for a correction.
 
similar to when the media scares them with all the 'buy now or be priced out forever' talk ?

Exactly. It certainly doesn't help that many realtors use the newspapers as marketing tools by writing "recently sold" or "what they got" or "what $X gets you" articles in major publications, carefully selecting the most expensive homes in their roster and casually mentioning what a great deal the buyers got because of "fill in the blanks" thereby instilling this notion to most everyday buyers that they need to spend $X as well, otherwise be forever left behind in this high-demand real estate market.
 
I have noticed more than a few downtown (Spadina Eastward) 1 bedrooms on MLS for about 285-315. I also get a monthly pamphlet in the mail from a local realtor that summarizes how much units in all the nearby buildings sold for in the previous month. For December, most buildings in my area had 1 bedroom units sell for between 300 and 310. The location of these units would be from Lower Simcoe-Yonge south of the Gardiner.

I was planning to buy in about a year so a 5-10% correction would be appreciated, although I am most likely dreaming and it wont happen.
 
Hello everyone - happened across this thread and after reading through a number of its pages plus a few other threads, I thought to join.

This is an interesting conversation, no doubt that a decline in RE values will come around sometime, that's how all investment cycles which are speculation based work.

Some food for thought perhaps - With the news that CMHC is looking to slow its lending or at least be more discerning because it nears its authorized cap, the possibility exists that it will either a) increase minimum down payment as they've done previously; b) reduce amortization periods; c) increase the insurance rate or d) a combination of a to c.

I suspect we shall see either one of 'a or b' but wouldn't be surprised to see both.
 
Exactly. It certainly doesn't help that many realtors use the newspapers as marketing tools by writing "recently sold" or "what they got" or "what $X gets you" articles in major publications, carefully selecting the most expensive homes in their roster and casually mentioning what a great deal the buyers got because of "fill in the blanks" thereby instilling this notion to most everyday buyers that they need to spend $X as well, otherwise be forever left behind in this high-demand real estate market.
Well, the good real estate agents know how to sell.

However, I'm thinking they're often balanced out by ones that don't really sell things as well as they should.

Case in point: A teardown-rebuild nearby is listed at $2 million (down from the $2.25 million before, which I thought was far too high). The sign has the agent's website on it. So, I look at the website. There is no mention whatsoever of the home at all on the website. In fact, the entire neighbourhood isn't even mentioned on his website, which makes it look like he doesn't deal in homes in the area. If I were the seller, I'd be pissed.
 
Exactly. It certainly doesn't help that many realtors use the newspapers as marketing tools by writing "recently sold" or "what they got" or "what $X gets you" articles in major publications, carefully selecting the most expensive homes in their roster and casually mentioning what a great deal the buyers got because of "fill in the blanks" thereby instilling this notion to most everyday buyers that they need to spend $X as well, otherwise be forever left behind in this high-demand real estate market.

I regularly get flyers from other Agents with properties that have sold over asking instilling the fear that you mention. I agree to a certain extent that these are scare tactics telling people that prices are skyrocketing. The reason why most properties sell over asking is because Agents purposely under price the property to create a bidding war as some of you already know. Is ethical practice? Some say no, and some say it is the nature of a hot market.

On the new sales condo front, I will be interested to see how 1000 Bay sells this weekend. It has its official launch this Saturday. I received specs for this place and they are averaging 750sqft, with an additional $65000 for parking. Overall the market will be healthy, but I think re-sale condos might actually stagnate this year if not drop slightly because of all the inventory coming on the market.

I have seen so many Agents promote this building as if it is the best deal in town. Part of the problem is that Builders are promising endless amount of clients who will want to buy here, as if it the worlds best secret. Some Agents need to use there thinking caps and put their clients needs first but if they can make an extra buck, they will promote heavily to past clients, new clients, and so forth without thinking about whether or not this is a smart investment. I will continue to say this, buy re-sale.

I do think it is somewhat hypocritical that banks are telling us that we have so much debt, and yet at the same time entice people to purchase with rates this low. Everything is a business and making a purchase should be based on what is right for you, and not what an Agent, banks, or media tell you.
 
I don't get how pricing something too low is unethical. Nobody is forcing the prospective buyers to make an offer. And even if they do decide to make an offer, there is nobody forcing the prospective buyers to bid high.

Basically, calling something like that unethical is like calling nearly all of eBay unethical.
 
I am only relaying what some people have expressed to me. I am saying that sometimes it is hard to track whether or not there are a certain amount of offers on a property. An example would be if there is 3 registered offers on a property, and only one offer comes in on paper. Lets say that one person thought they had to go over $20000 to get the place, when in fact they were the only other offer that was presented. This is where I think some unethical practices come in to play. Do we ever know how many if any other offers were placed on a property?
 
Mortgage lending tightens for self-employed, immigrants
February 01, 2012
Susan Pigg
It’s going to be tougher for the self employed, new immigrants and higher-risk borrowers to get a mortgage as concerns continue to mount over the state of Canada’s housing market.
CIBC’s wholesale mortgage arm, FirstLine, quietly announced Tuesday that it will no longer accept new applications from “stated income” homebuyers who can’t prove they have the annual net income to qualify for home loans.
FirstLine also set a $1 million cap on what it will lend for a home purchase.
The major change in policy, which is bound to pique the interest of other major lenders, came on the same day it was revealed that the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. could be forced to cut back on the mortgages it insures.
The moves are seen as among the clearest indications yet that Canada’s hot housing market and record levels of household debt are a concern far beyond just the Ottawa offices of Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney.
That’s despite a Bank of Montreal report this week that says Canada’s housing market is more balloon than bubble and more likely to deflate than pop.
“The signs are there that everyone is worried, with the exception of BMO. It’s not like there is just one person saying there is a problem with the housing market,” said Jason Friesen, a mortgage consultant with the Callum Ross Team.
“It’s impossible to know, given all the doom and gloom in the rest of the world, what will happen over the next three months or the next six months, but lending institutions are looking for ways to protect themselves.”
The CIBC was unable to comment last night on the changes, other than to say FirstLine’s decision “reflects the normal course of business.”
But that, coupled with CMHC’s predicament, is sure to raise concerns.
CMHC has traditionally backstopped loans, especially to first-time homebuyers who can’t raise the traditional 20 per cent downpayment for a home.
But the housing corporation has recently received “an unexpected level of requests for large amounts of CMHC portfolio insurance” that has pushed it close to the $600-billion cap on insurance set by the federal government.
Those requests have come from financial institutions looking for, in essence, taxpayer backing on pools of previously uninsured low-ratio mortgages.
While a CMHC spokesperson insisted this “does not affect the availability of CMHC’s mortgage insurance for qualified home buyers and will not impact the cost of buying a home,” the federal housing company may inevitably be forced to take a harder look at who it insures down the road, housing experts say.
That’s led to speculation that CMHC, too, could back away from self-employed home buyers who often need insurance to get a mortgage.
CMHC declined to comment on those suggestions Tuesday, other than to say “CMHC continues to manage its mortgage loan insurance business in accordance with the $600 billion insurance in force limit.”
FirstLine’s announcement is “a pretty substantial change in thinking” from the second-biggest mortgage lender in the country, said Friesen.
The question is whether other institutional lenders will follow suit.
CMHC’s situation is equally worrisome in that the federal limit could see a tightening of lending conditions that leads to a cooling of a market many housing experts consider “overheated.”
As of Sept. 30, CMHC had insured $541 billion in loans, up from $501 billion a year earlier. Just three years ago, CMHC was insuring $450 billion in loans and asked Ottawa for approval for the $600 billion cap.
The increase in insurance-backed loans is not only evidence that increased prices are pushing houses further out of reach of many homebuyers, but that people are still so keen to get into the market, they’re willing to pay for mortgage default insurance, said TD Bank economist Sonya Gulati.
Maintaining the cap could have a dampening effect on demand for hosuing, but would be “an indirect way of making it tougher to get a mortgage,” she said.
Ottawa has raised concerns about record levels of household debt, fuelled by high-spending baby boomers and historically low interest rates.
But restricting CMHC “is a bit trickier,” said Gulati, than having Ottawa tighten up mortgage rules yet again by insisting on higher downpayments and shorter amortization periods.
 

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