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Baby, we got a bubble!?

Me too. Do you agree with the following for new builds in the core (exclude Cityplace and Liberty Village)

Studio $1350-$1500
1 bed $1650-$1800
1 bed den $1850-$2000
2 bed 2 bath $2200+
2 bed den/3 bed $2500+

The thing is though the units are smaller now. Many 2 bed 2 bath are under 800 sq ft
 
Me too. Do you agree with the following for new builds in the core (exclude Cityplace and Liberty Village)

Studio $1350-$1500
1 bed $1650-$1800
1 bed den $1850-$2000
2 bed 2 bath $2200+
2 bed den/3 bed $2500+

The thing is though the units are smaller now. Many 2 bed 2 bath are under 800 sq ft

That's about right. The price is up, size is smaller. Thing is buyers want brand new, trendy, nice finishes in good locations. Size doesn't seem to matter as much...or functionality. Some of the layouts are terrible.
 
Any idea how they're getting that average rate information? Following asking prices on Craigslist or something?

MLS listed rentals are a tiny slice of the pie and tend to be on the high side. I can see how you could track year-over-year changes (%age) but not how you would find the average rate.

Over 27,000 condos rented on MLS last year. Urbanation has estimated that this is about 80% of total activity. This is a very representative sample, and likely very close to what is actually happening. The "same sample" data show an increase of 3% annually (excludes all units registered over the past 12 months).
 
I find the market for larger; Say 1200-1500 square foot units much much more stable; In good locations (say NYCC / Y&E / parts of downtown), lots of the prices here are closer to the 370-500 square feet range; Of course condo fees are generally higher but that can also range quite dramatically, say $700-1500 a month depending on the building / what's in included / ...


I bet if folks were too look at growth in that market, you'd see it'd be a very low 1 - 2% a year going back quite far (maybe many years with little growth).

I wonder what the longer term direction will be for such units. Lots of talk of families wanting to live closer to work but can't afford the million+ homes; So I can see a little growth but I think this fact gets overstated often i.e. I don't think we're going to see huge growth in the large unit market.
 
The idea that a large number of families are going to live in condos downtown is highly speculative in my opinion. The reality is that most families want a backyard, 2 car garage, etc. Even the larger condo units from decades ago would feel cramped to people raised in the suburbs. I think about the people I know in my life and I can't think of any families that don't live in low-rise homes, whether it be a townhome, semi, or detached.
 
I think there will be a significant increase in all forms of townhome construction. This will be the next step for those who spent their 20's / 30's in King West / Liberty but and choose to stay in the City and raise kids. There will continue to be NIMBY outcries (i.e. Keewatin Avenue), especially in what have been historically wealthy neighbourhoods, but the City will have to bend. The list of reasonable objections to a townhome project is much shorter than for a tower or even a mid-rise project. The City should already be encouraging consolidation and redevelopment of multiple single family lots, particularly in areas where there is a mix of towns, semis, etc., but will certainly continue to pander to the whims of the NIMBYs.
 
Families living in condos is happening. That's why new schools are going in in City Place. The backyard, white picket fence and a dog is a North American thing, and it's changing. There are a number of young families in Liberty Village, for example, as well as City Place. Go to any of the parks around these new residential neighbourhoods. There are lots of kids and families.
 
The reality is that most families want a backyard, 2 car garage, etc.

The backyard, white picket fence and a dog is a North American thing, and it's changing.

I agree that condos (or any type of lower-maintenance homes) are increasingly becoming more desirable over the single family detached style of living. I see it in my own group of 40-50 year old peers, who all scrambled to get large properties with endless lawns and are now feeling the pain of having to take care of it all. They have kids and very active social lives, and the property is more of a burden. They are not like their fathers, who loved puttering around the yard or fixing up the roof. The mowing, raking, tending, caulking, weatherproofing, is a chore to be endured. People seem to be craving simplicity again.

We played outside as kids in the burbs. Our spacious yards were imaginative battlefields and makeshift baseball and soccer fields. I don't see that much at all these days, and we once lived next to a suburban house with 5 kids. They are all being carted around to other places to play or participate in sports.
 
I think there will be a significant increase in all forms of townhome construction. This will be the next step for those who spent their 20's / 30's in King West / Liberty but and choose to stay in the City and raise kids. There will continue to be NIMBY outcries (i.e. Keewatin Avenue), especially in what have been historically wealthy neighbourhoods, but the City will have to bend. The list of reasonable objections to a townhome project is much shorter than for a tower or even a mid-rise project. The City should already be encouraging consolidation and redevelopment of multiple single family lots, particularly in areas where there is a mix of towns, semis, etc., but will certainly continue to pander to the whims of the NIMBYs.

Agreed. Townhomes are a good solution.

Families living in condos is happening. That's why new schools are going in in City Place. The backyard, white picket fence and a dog is a North American thing, and it's changing. There are a number of young families in Liberty Village, for example, as well as City Place. Go to any of the parks around these new residential neighbourhoods. There are lots of kids and families.

There are some young families that live downtown but for most I bet it is temporary. The parents will look to move to a low-rise home once their kids are bigger and require more space (and the parents can afford it). Having 2 or 3 teenagers in a condo doesn't seem like a common living situation in Toronto. How many 15 year olds are going to high school downtown? Not many. Are you going to have 2 or 3 cars in the condo parking lot so the kids can get to their various activities and errands can be run? There's not even 1 spot per condo unit in most buildings.

Of course there are exceptions to this and will probably be more in the future given the never-ending double-digit price increases to low-rise housing. However, I don't think condo living is what most families prefer and many are willing to commute longer for more square footage. Places like Ajax and other commuter cities are still relatively affordable, especially on a square footage basis.

I agree that condos (or any type of lower-maintenance homes) are increasingly becoming more desirable over the single family detached style of living. I see it in my own group of 40-50 year old peers, who all scrambled to get large properties with endless lawns and are now feeling the pain of having to take care of it all. They have kids and very active social lives, and the property is more of a burden. They are not like their fathers, who loved puttering around the yard or fixing up the roof. The mowing, raking, tending, caulking, weatherproofing, is a chore to be endured. People seem to be craving simplicity again.

We played outside as kids in the burbs. Our spacious yards were imaginative battlefields and makeshift baseball and soccer fields. I don't see that much at all these days, and we once lived next to a suburban house with 5 kids. They are all being carted around to other places to play or participate in sports.

Have you seen these 40-50 years olds move to smaller condos while their kids still live with them? I'd be interested in anecdotal stories in that regard. How do they handle some of the issues I raised earlier in this post?
 
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Are you going to have 2 or 3 cars in the condo parking lot so the kids can get to their various activities and errands can be run? There's not even 1 spot per condo unit in most buildings.
We have teenagers in our building. They take transit, as do their parents.

It is a topic that is being discussed in the media and certainly on neighbourhood Facebook groups -- including parenting/family specific downtown groups. For example: http://www.thestar.com/life/homes/2015/01/16/raising-kids-in-condos-a-growing-trend.html and this group with 300 members: https://www.facebook.com/groups/LibertyVillageKids/ and this one with 260 members: https://www.facebook.com/groups/Cityplaceparents/
 

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