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2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

mjl08 said:
I agree that the 2014 NDP platform was very unfriendly towards Toronto. Hell, they lost huge high profile MPs like Michael Prue and Rosario Marchese. With that being said, I don't think that Horwath's folksy populism in 2014 was necessarily misplaced. The party saw an opening in the SW Ontario rust belt and inner-suburbs of York and Scarborough. In York West, a Dipper dead zone that includes Jane and Finch, the NDP candidate came within 1000 votes of winning. People forget that in 2014 the NDP's popular vote across the province actually went up. A disappointing result? Sure. But far from the wipe-out that hit Mulcair a year later.

I think in 2018 the Ontario NDP should retain the populist narrative, but with more leftist policy planks like keeping hydro public and making childcare more affordable. More Bernie, less RoFo.
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The NDP vote increased in York West, they lost ground in Scarborough and also York South-Weston. Incidentally Paul Ferreira has broken with the party over its road toll stance. Overall the NDP was down in outer Toronto too.

But not really in disagreement. Indeed, Sanders was able to unite urban progressives and working class voters, said you don't have to be anti-tax, anti-environment etc. in order to win working class voters.

Incidentally Parkdale-High Park and Danforth ridings are pretty much exactly the type of urban areas where Sanders did well in.
 
steveintoronto said:
I sent the portion of McLaughlin's comments to some NDP party hacks I know. No response so far...And Preston Manning was actually sensible and measured. Too bad the Cons buried him when they had their 'Grand Synthesis'. I'm still working my way through that vid, it's long, and have yet to find Bouchard's 'blow up' with Kim Campbell. Hopefully it's in there. It was a high-point.
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I'm fairly NDPish, but McLaughlin was awful. Granted, I only watched the opening remarks, but as I listened to her flat comments about Medicare I had a vision of their result of only 9 seats.

StevieD said:
Hoskins has proven to be a big part of this toxic, awful Liberal government. As an Ontario resident who has voted Liberal for a majority of my adult life, I would feel very discouraged if Hoskins became the "fresh face" for the provincial Grits. After 2018, if this current government falls to third party status, I think the best bet for the Liberals is putting in someone who has no ties to the party for the last 10+ years; an outsider is what the party needs. Hoskins has proven to be just a Wynne pawn who just blames past governments for current failures.

I'd love to feel good about voting Liberal again but until this party gets it's act in gear and does a hard reboot, I'll be supporting the alternative - the Ontario Tories. Politicians who seem to be set to run for the Liberal leadership (once Wynne is gone), such as Eric Hoskins and Steven Del Duca, are just part of the problem in Ontario and as far as I see it, they need to walk away.
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Speaking as a physician, I think Hoskins is among the worst of the bunch. For some reason who has never really practiced much of any clinical medicine (let alone dealt with the realities of independent billing and fee-for-service), he certainly tries to gain lots of mileage from his whole "Dr Hoskins" thing.

mjl08 said:
One area where I think you'll continue to see NDP prospects slide, and possibly see the PC gain support, is downtown. The modern Liberal Party of Trudeau and Wynne speak the language of the upper-middle class, creative, and bourgeois-lefty types. The type of voter in the Annex or Cityplace who supports issues like public transit and carbon caps, but whose eyes glaze over when the NDP talk about P3s or income inequality.
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Just as an aside, I hope we can soon do away with the "creative class" BS which essentially amounts to "look how great upper-middle class professionals are".
 
mjl08 said:
I think Han Dong is safe. I imagine he'll run in the new Spadina-Fort York riding, which I reckon is a somewhat safer riding than University-Rosedale.

One area where I think you'll continue to see NDP prospects slide, and possibly see the PC gain support, is downtown. The modern Liberal Party of Trudeau and Wynne speak the language of the upper-middle class, creative, and bourgeois-lefty types. The type of voter in the Annex or Cityplace who supports issues like public transit and carbon caps, but whose eyes glaze over when the NDP talk about P3s or income inequality.

Despite this, I think the influx of young suburbanites to downtown, and a growing cluster of professionals in the condo corridors, could see some growth for the PCs over time. Downtown Vancouver, for instance, has surprisingly high CPC support.
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In a hypothetical lost-party-status Grit circumstance, I *can't* see Han Dong being necessarily safe--and on top of that, in a PC-landslide circumstance I can see them assuming nominal second-place status in Spadina-Fort York over the NDP, if not outright victory. Reason: the condos, and how they've become an overwhelmingly dominant presence, all but squashing what remains of the traditional low-rise neighbourhoods--and how they're really gated entities, impervious to old NDP electoral machinery. All they need is incentive to realize that a PC vote is not a wasted vote...
 
adma said:
All they need is incentive to realize that a PC vote is not a wasted vote
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Well that's sure not Brown. The PCs of generations back were centrists, and offered *progressive* government. Many of us would have voted an *alternative* like that long ago, but until the PCs get real, and the Dippers get their shid together, there isn't anyone to vote for until the Grits put Wynne in a sitz bath, and leave her there. And her cabinet.

The Libs have a much easier task to win than the others do. All it will take is Wynne stepping down, and someone who can f0rm a complete sentence, answer questions, and portray a vision takes over. The Libs will win a clear majority again.
 
steveintoronto said:
The Libs have a much easier task to win than the others do. All it will take is Wynne stepping down, and someone who can f0rm a complete sentence, answer questions, and portray a vision takes over. The Libs will win a clear majority again.
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So if the Grits put up some like a Wynne pawn such as Eric Hoskins, Steven Del Duca, Deb Matthews, Liz Sandals or Charles Sousa and if they can present themselves well the current government will win a majority government? Umm... I don't think so. If the Liberals want a good chance at winning a majority again, they need to clean house. That means all top Ontario Liberal MPPs retire from provincial politics. This toxic party needs a hard reboot with brand new people.

Brown and the Tories are taking a more grassroots approach to policy and I think that could be appealing on the campaign trail next spring. And like I have said, don't underestimate Brown. He will out campaign both Wynne and Horwath much like how he out campaigned Christine Elliott during the PC leadership race and if he has a good platform and a good message, he'll surprise everyone.
 
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adma said:
Reason: the condos, and how they've become an overwhelmingly dominant presence, all but squashing what remains of the traditional low-rise neighbourhoods--and how they're really gated entities, impervious to old NDP electoral machinery. All they need is incentive to realize that a PC vote is not a wasted vote...
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Interesting point. Although by provincial law condos are supposed to open their doors for political canvassers during election time, it is still a logistical nightmare. I imagine particularly with the NDP who rely heavy on the 'ground game' with unions and local community groups to get out the vote.
 
mjl08 said:
Interesting point. Although by provincial law condos are supposed to open their doors for political canvassers during election time, it is still a logistical nightmare. I imagine particularly with the NDP who rely heavy on the 'ground game' with unions and local community groups to get out the vote.
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Condos actually make canvassing significantly easier. It's illegal for building security to bar entry to canvassers and political staffers know that.

They prefer condos or apartment buildings to single family homes because they can knock so many more doors in a short period of time and because all of that door knocking is climate controlled door knocking.
 
mjl08 said:
Interesting point. Although by provincial law condos are supposed to open their doors for political canvassers during election time, it is still a logistical nightmare. I imagine particularly with the NDP who rely heavy on the 'ground game' with unions and local community groups to get out the vote.
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I canvassed for an NDP candidate. Condos are easy. Usually a friend in the building will let us in. If not, I watched one (more experienced canvasser) just hit all the buzzer buttons . We were usually in within a few seconds. And it was nice; less walking, and warm.
 
Apparently Cheri Di Novo is not running for re-election in 2018 in Parkdale High Park. She won by a hair in 2014.

Other than her and Glen Murray in Toronto Centre, are there any other Toronto incumbent MPPs who are not running next year?
 
ADRM said:
Condos actually make canvassing significantly easier. It's illegal for building security to bar entry to canvassers and political staffers know that.

They prefer condos or apartment buildings to single family homes because they can knock so many more doors in a short period of time and because all of that door knocking is climate controlled door knocking.
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Correct. I canvas for a certain candidate every election, and condos are by far the easiest.

You simply mention you are with a campaign, sign in, and go. Security has never once denied entry. It's also easy in the sense that 3-4 of you go with the candidate, you knock on 4 doors at once, and if all people answer, you simply chat with them and ask if they want to speak to the candidate. Some just want to say a quick hello, while others want to talk policy. You leave the candidate talking while continuing to knock on other doors. You can have a whole floor of a building canvassed in a matter of minutes. - And yes, climate control is amazing.
 
mjl08 said:
Apparently Cheri Di Novo is not running for re-election in 2018 in Parkdale High Park. She won by a hair in 2014.

Other than her and Glen Murray in Toronto Centre, are there any other Toronto incumbent MPPs who are not running next year?
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Glen Murray is running for re-election.
 
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