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2015 Federal Election

mjl08 said:
Still, I'm surprised the NDP has been able to hold on to their high support, now for the second month. Mulcair has been teflon thus far. It would be quite interesting if the race becomes Trudeau vs. Mulcair with Harper way out in third. No more fear of vote-splitting, which I imagine would help the NDP.
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It think it's less about Teflon, and more that there just hasn't been all that much to throw at him. Especially true when compared to the Duffy trial going on right now and the increasing evidence that the PMO's office knew a lot more than they've been letting on.
 
Maybe I am in the minority, but I want a minority government after what happened the last four years. Make them work together.
 
Videodrome said:
Maybe I am in the minority, but I want a minority government after what happened the last four years. Make them work together.
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My issue with a minority this time around is that we have everyone but the Conservatives promising some pretty serious democratic reforms. If I'm not mistaken, the Liberals are promising some form of ranked ballot elections, and the NDP are proposing a mixed member type of system. I'd personally prefer a ranked ballot, but we so desperately need a change to a more proportional system I'd accept either one, and I don't want to see it fail because of partisan politics and an inability to agree on one particular system. Once we have some kind of PR system in place minorities will be the norm rather than the exception, and parties will be forced to work together going forward.
 
WislaHD said:
Yes, but the Conservatives can regroup and get elected in the following election cycle.
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Under who? Presumably Harper will quickly resign after th eelection.

I figure more likely they schism, with the progressive forces in the east, the Reformers in the west, and apathy in the centre.
 
mjl08 said:
Still, I'm surprised the NDP has been able to hold on to their high support, now for the second month. Mulcair has been teflon thus far. It would be quite interesting if the race becomes Trudeau vs. Mulcair with Harper way out in third. No more fear of vote-splitting, which I imagine would help the NDP.
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I don't think that'll happen. I'm dubious about today's Forum poll.
 
Videodrome said:
Is this an outlier?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com//new...ts/article26117399/?cmpid=rss1&click=sf_globe

The Globe thinks that the CPC will still win more seats.
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I will always think *almost* anything can happen. But none of the seat prediction sites I visit has the CPC on the lead . 2ClosetoCall has it a virtual tie but it is a couple of weeks old. Lispop, who does a great job and Global news uses them a lot has NDP leading by 20 (134 to 116) and the famous 308 has NDP leading by 30 (144 to 112) My calculation (taking the new forum numbers into accound has . CPC 108 , NDP 144, Lib 84. Bloc and Green with 1.

Not sure if I totally buy the latest Forum numbers. But if you looked at the latest Nanos numbers the Liberals are at 30% there as well.

I thought the latest Angus Reid numbers (whom I rank very highly) were interesting and also have been pushing NDP over the 35% mark. Likely Voters they had NDP 36, CPC 32, Lib 23. While their eligible voters (thanks 308) tabulate much more drastic NDP 37, CPC 30, Lib 24.


My current polling (Nanos is really dragging the NDP total number down)
Nanos (Aug 21) CPC 30..... NDP 29.... Lib 30... Blc 05... Grn 05
Angus (Aug 24) CPC 30... NDP 37... Lib 24... Blc 04.... Grn 05
Ipsos (Aug 10) CPC 31.... NDP 33... Lib 28... Blc 04... Grn 04
Leger (Aug 12) CPC 27... NDP 33... Lib 28... Blc 05... Grn 06
MY Total: CPC 30... NDP 32... Lib 28... Blc 05... Grn 05
 
Admiral Beez said:
Another meaningless national poll. The only polls that matter show the voter intention per riding. That's a big project, so focus on the swing ridings. But telling us that 40% of Canadians like the NDP is in itself useless in predicting the election results, as all 40% may be super concentrated in a minority of ridings.
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That's why they stratify samples by province or region. And why seat projections are made with big margins of error.
 
nfitz said:
Under who? Presumably Harper will quickly resign after th eelection.

I figure more likely they schism, with the progressive forces in the east, the Reformers in the west, and apathy in the centre.
Click to expand...

Good question. I vote that they collapse too, but I am wary that is just wishful thinking.

Point is though, that the Conservatives can in a few years time regroup under a new leader (currently unknown to us) and possibly in a new direction (reform and red tory split?) and still be electable to about ~25% of Canadians, enough to become opposition. For the NDP on the other hand, if things don't go their way if they get in power we will be hearing about Mulcair and NDP in the same manner as Bob Rae and Ontario NDP for decades to come.
 
Admiral Beez said:
But telling us that 40% of Canadians like the NDP is in itself useless in predicting the election results, as all 40% may be super concentrated in a minority of ridings.
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*May* be.

But to repeat: look at Alberta. Almost to the very end, dumb pundits were claiming "no way" because of the NDP support's presumptive superconcentration in Edmonton.

Besides, aside from Quebec maybe, the federal scene's too diffuse for a clear Edmontonian superconcentration to be evident. Otherwise, Olivia Chow might be--within *present* boundaries, yet--be set to whack Adam Vaughan by an even more humongous margin than vs Christine Innes in 2011. And at this point, I can't quite see *that*...
 
WislaHD said:
Good question. I vote that they collapse too, but I am wary that is just wishful thinking.

Point is though, that the Conservatives can in a few years time regroup under a new leader (currently unknown to us) and possibly in a new direction (reform and red tory split?) and still be electable to about ~25% of Canadians, enough to become opposition. For the NDP on the other hand, if things don't go their way if they get in power we will be hearing about Mulcair and NDP in the same manner as Bob Rae and Ontario NDP for decades to come.
Click to expand...

There are also faultlines of personalities as well, and some of them has been posturing for the Post-Harper era (while others jumped ship quietly and not so quietly). Recall the very public splat between Jason Kenney and the late Flaherty over Fo? I don't think the house of the Cons in all that much harmony of late, and who knows where it may go without Tito.

AoD
 
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