2011 Federal Election Result Predictions

[urbandreamer]

So, this is who we've got to choose between is it?

a)Stephen-the bore-Harper

b)Michael-lies-Ignatieff

c)Jack-off-Layton

d)Elizabeth-the 2nd-May

Who's gonna win?

 

[Dan416]

Looks like Quebec is choosing Layton over Duceppe now. Interesting change. If we see the NDP gain 20+ seats in Quebec it could mean the Liberals and NDP could form a coalition majority government without the Bloc.

 

[nfitz]

Coalition would be extremely unlikely - hasn't been a proper coalition in Canada since before Confederation. Wouldn't the most likely scenario simply be a Liberal minority government, which the NDP provides support for ... the same way the NDP has been propping up the Conservatives for years, and the Liberals when Martin was PM?

It certainly simplifies things.

Though I'd think a gain in NDP support in Quebec, cutting into BQ support, would flip some seats from BQ to Conservative, and give the Tories their majority.

 

[SimonP]

the same way the NDP has been propping up the Conservatives for years.

When did the NDP ever prop up the Conservatives? It's almost always been the Liberals who've voted for Con budgets and thrones speeches, and when it hasn't been them it's been the Bloc.

 

[adma]

Though I'd think a gain in NDP support in Quebec, cutting into BQ support, would flip some seats from BQ to Conservative, and give the Tories their majority.

Extrapolating from the last election, not many of those left (i.e. losing seats where the Cons were still above 25% or so)

 

[Mongo]

With the way the polls have been moving, I think an NDP minority government is quite possible now.

 

[nfitz]

With the way the polls have been moving, I think an NDP minority government is quite possible now.

They'll never get more seats than the Conservatives. So it would only be after Harper tries to govern, and loses confidence of Parliament.

 

[grey]

This is getting really interesting. I'm hoping that the NDP's momentum will draw the attention of the young and educated, who have typically dismissed elections as pointless, given the choice between a bad party (right) and a worse party (further right).

 

[Mongo]

They'll never get more seats than the Conservatives. So it would only be after Harper tries to govern, and loses confidence of Parliament.

That's what I meant. No party will have a majority, but the Conservatives, with the most seats, will be unlikely to gain the support of the Liberals or NDP (unless Ignatieff throws a hissy fit), whereas the NDP have a reasonable chance of gaining the support of the Liberals, giving them over half of the votes in Parliament, enough for a minority government.

 

[howl]

That's what I meant. No party will have a majority, but the Conservatives, with the most seats, will be unlikely to gain the support of the Liberals or NDP (unless Ignatieff throws a hissy fit), whereas the NDP have a reasonable chance of gaining the support of the Liberals, giving them over half of the votes in Parliament, enough for a minority government.

In that scenario it may be the few remaining Bloc seats that hold the balance of power. Harper may have to eat crow and align himself with the Bloc if he wants to avoid a NDP/Liberal coalition.

 

[grey]

In that scenario it may be the few remaining Bloc seats that hold the balance of power. Harper may have to eat crow and align himself with the Bloc if he wants to avoid a NDP/Liberal coalition.

That'll be hilariously difficult for the Conservatives (and the Bloc) to swallow considering their polar-opposite ideologies, but I guess this already happened a number of years ago...

 

[Brandon716]

So, this is who we've got to choose between is it?

a)Stephen-the bore-Harper

b)Michael-lies-Ignatieff

c)Jack-off-Layton

d)Elizabeth-the 2nd-May

Who's gonna win?

1) Hyperbolic Cynicism

2) Hyperbolic Cynicism

3) Hyperbolic Cynicism

4) Hyperbolic Cynicism

The parties have real platforms that go beyond cynicism.

I hope people in Ontario and Atlantic Canada realize they need to stick with the Liberals to avoid a vote split, then maybe the NDP surge in Quebec (where Conservatives aren't the competition) can allow for a coalition. If not, we're going to have a Harper majority.

 

[Mongo]

I hope people in Ontario and Atlantic Canada realize they need to stick with the NDP to avoid a vote split, then maybe the NDP surge in Quebec (where Conservatives aren't the competition) can allow for an NDP-led coalition. If not, we're going to have a Harper majority.

 

[nfitz]

That's what I meant. No party will have a majority, but the Conservatives, with the most seats, will be unlikely to gain the support of the Liberals or NDP (unless Ignatieff throws a hissy fit), whereas the NDP have a reasonable chance of gaining the support of the Liberals, giving them over half of the votes in Parliament, enough for a minority government.

I wouldn't be surprised if a more likely scenario is that Harper and Ignatieff both resign, and those that are left form a Liberal Conservative coalition. Outside of some social issues that they'd quickly agree to leave alone, there isn't that much between the Liberals (particularly Ignatieff's lot) and the Conservatives.

 

[adma]

They'll never get more seats than the Conservatives.

Given some of the numbers, they *could*, esp. if a lot of those seats are under-40% ones in Quebec and the Tories waste their advantage on over-70% seats in Alberta...