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2007 Ontario Election: Will Tory lose Don Valley West?

ShonTron

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Even CanWest is saying Tory could lose Don Valley West

School funding could be Tory's ruin in own riding

Zev Singer, CanWest News Service
Published: Monday, October 01, 2007

John Tory's promise to fund faith-based schools is so deeply unpopular with voters that the Ontario Progressive Conservative leader is facing defeat in his own riding.

An Ottawa Citizen/COMPAS poll has found that the Conservative leader, whose party has consistently trailed Dalton McGuinty's Liberals province-wide throughout the first three weeks of the campaign, now has big trouble in his own backyard.

The poll shows Tory with backing of 37 per cent of decided voters in race for the riding of Don Valley West, well behind the 52 per cent for Liberal Kathleen Wynne.

Decided voters in that Toronto riding are giving the Green Party six per cent support and the NDP five per cent. The poll, which surveyed 333 voters between Sept. 25 and Sept. 29, is considered accurate within 5.6 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

Until the writ was dropped, Tory represented the riding of Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey, but this time he chose to run in Toronto, taking on a strong incumbent in Education Minister Kathleen Wynne.

The poll shows clearly that the faith-based school funding issue is uniting voters of all political leanings - and not in the way Tory would like.

Among all the voters, 65 per cent agreed with the statement: "Funding should not be extended because Ontario already has a major challenge making sure that our large immigrant population fits in and shares our values."

The worst part for Tory is probably that even amongst voters who identify themselves as supporters of the Conservatives, 53 per cent agreed with that statement.

Of voters in the riding, only 20 per cent agreed with the statement that "funding should be extended because parents should have the freedom to pass on to their own children their own personal moral and religious values."

Overall, 42 per cent of voters agreed with the statement that "it is risky to extend funding because public money could be used by some schools to teach extremist values."

Among those who were willing to name a particular type of school that was of special concern on this front, the most common response was Islamic, at 14 per cent, followed by Christian and Sikh, each at six per cent, and then Hindu, Tamil and Buddhist, each at four per cent, and Orthodox Jewish, at a fraction of one per cent.

"If a day is an eternity in politics, then the Ontario Progressive Conservative leader has 10 eternities during which he can turn his fortunes around in Don Valley West," said Compas's Conrad Winn, who was the principal investigator on the study.

Ottawa Citizen
 
Very encouraging!

42
 
It is is own fault for running against the highly popular education Minister. Take it or leave it, but McGuinty's years in office have given him the reputation as the "education premier." Teachers from around the province are working hard to keep Wynne in the win column (that may have been the lamest phrase I've ever posted).
 
Compas is not the most reliable of posters and the sample size, while understandably small because it is just for one riding, may not accurately reflect the diversity of the riding. Having said that, Tory's flip-flop on the faith-based schools issue certainly seems like a last-ditch attempt to save both the election and his own riding.
 
As long as they used a sufficiently random sampling algorithm, their sample size is perfectly adequate. There isn't as high a degree of certainty as usual, but the difference is statistically significant: >95% chance Tory would lose.
 
Ironically, this poll could guarantee his win. In the Kitchener-Waterloo riding, a poll came out very late in the campaign indicating that Elizabeth Witmer was going to lose. Within 24 hours, volunteers started to pour into her campaign office and signs started to pop up as disgruntled Tories who were going to stay home assuming that she would win anyway showed up and supported her.
 
Indeed, I think he could squeek through based on this poll result.

friggen polls. it's like going back in time, preventing your mom from falling in love with your dad at the "enchantment under the sea dance" and not being born.
 
Ironically, this poll could guarantee his win. In the Kitchener-Waterloo riding, a poll came out very late in the campaign indicating that Elizabeth Witmer was going to lose. Within 24 hours, volunteers started to pour into her campaign office and signs started to pop up as disgruntled Tories who were going to stay home assuming that she would win anyway showed up and supported her.

Actually, some Liberal insiders I spoke to believe this is the intent of the poll. COMPAS is known to be Tory-friendly, and it would be easy to manipulate the poll, such as only calling Liberal areas of the riding. None of them believe the results of the poll and are wary of complacency among Liberal supporters.
 
really Elizabeth Witmer is a red tory and quite a good person. To suggest she would lose was quite stupid.
 
First of all, you don't seem to be from Waterloo. Secondly, many Red Tories and "good people" have been defeated in the past. Perrin Beatty comes to mind. Thirdly, the "suggestion" was made by a scientific poll which showed her trailing her opponent.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if this poll were part of a Tory strategy. Get the Liberals to stay home or inspire Tories mad about religious school to set aside their differences and get the leader elected. After all, look at what newspaper it was in...
 
New Poll by decima , Liberals are certain to win. However it still not certain if they will get a majority....

Liberals:43 %
PC:32 %
NDP:14 %
Green:10%

Also i think Willowdale and Brampton-Springdale are certain going Liberal.


Those are two seats the Tory were certain to win in the start of the election..

That means its almost certain the Tories will be shut out of Toronto and will maybe win one seat in Peel (Mississauga South)
 
I think you're right. I've been working in Willowdale, and the response at the doors has been quite Liberal and hostile to the Tories, especially over religious schools. Demographic changes have also helped. I'm not as familiar with Springdale, but it seems like a pretty safe Liberal riding. I'd say the only GTA ridings the Tories are likely to win are in the outer GTA. They'll win most of Durham up to (and possibly including) Ajax-Pickering. They have a small chance in Brampton West and Mississauga South, though in both cases I'd definitely bet on the Liberal. I'd say it's about 50/50 in Oak Ridges, and I'd give the edge to the Liberals in Richmond Hill at this point. Frank Klees lost that area last time, and the current Tory is no Frank Klees. As for him, I think he could be in trouble in Newmarket-Aurora. He's a pretty strong candidate, but I don't know...
 
The higher that Liberal vote goes the worse things look for the NDP. Also, because many Tories will now just stay home on voting day, the NDP will win fewer ridings "up the middle." Basically, they will be lucky to hold onto what they have.

I'd also expect Howard Hampton to resign sometime after this campaign.
 

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