Halfway through the decade in Toronto. What's our status?

Tomorrow, it's 2015. While we have had a lot of setbacks, we have had successes. This is not a thread for the next year, but the next 5. I want to know:


1) What went well in Toronto from 2010 - 2014
2) What didn't go so well from 2010 - 2014 (obvious, but be specific)
3) What would like to happen between now and January 1, 2020
4) What do you think will happen in reality between now and January 1, 2020
5) And this is special from my other threads, this is the final question:

For all intents and purposes, Toronto has passed Chicago and all the other US cities at this point, save NYC and LA. With construction everywhere and a huge growth of people from all over, Toronto looks to be the model city for the 21st Century. What does Toronto need to do to get in to the first tier of global cities ? (Tokyo, London, Paris, NYC, Hong Kong, Shanghai)


Thanks for your time, and happy new year!

1) What went well in Toronto from 2010 - 2014
2) What didn't go so well from 2010 - 2014 (obvious, but be specific)
3) What would like to happen between now and January 1, 2020
4) What do you think will happen in reality between now and January 1, 2020
5) And this is special from my other threads, this is the final question:

1) The rise of the central city
2) The rise of the central city and decline elsewhere
3) Transit, any transit. More jobs and employment and a more successful dynamic business environment
4) Some transit anywhere
5) Toronto can't be said to have "passed" Chicago. Toronto will never in this century be on the level of a first tier global city. If anything the bar is rising so fast that Toronto is falling behind and cities like Tokyo and Paris will strain to even stay on that top tier list. Toronto must strive to have and maintain having one of the highest standards of living in the world. The world is changing so rapidly that even cities like London, NYC and Hong Kong are probably falling behind. By the turn of the century according to current population projections India will be the most populace and probably largest economy, China will be stagnant, and Africa will surpass Asia as the most populace continent, a strange world where African cities will probably be the world's largest. In this world of the future the best Toronto can aspire to is to be like one of the high standard of living cities of Northern Europe (say Stockholm or Copenhagen).

If massive climate change occurs and Canada decides it wants to be a great middle-power (we have the potential, just not the desire), this would help Toronto cement itself firmly in the second tier pack. Otherwise, we are more likely to be third tier in the future than first. Not because I believe we are in terminal decline, just because the bar is rising so fast.

I strongly disagree that Toronto has surpassed all other US cities save NYC and LA. Last I checked Chicago, Wash/Balt, the Bay Area and Dallas all have larger metropolitan populations. WSH is still the political capital, The Bay Area has the Silicon Valley companies, Boston is the academic centre and Dallas has more Forbes 500 HQs than Toronto will ever have. I really fail to see how TO is the #3 NA city in any sector save vanity.

Things that have gone well for the city in the past 5 years are few and far between. WT is a mixed success story, TIFF is still going strong, the downtown universities are adding some nice cultural/academic venues to the mix, the condo boom continued unabated, and crime rates remained among the lowest in NA.

Unfortunately the sputtering economy is still largely fueled by a distorted real estate market and a condo boom that is more a mirage than an indication of economic growth. The cities' needs and infrastructural hopes are tied to a provincial government that is for all intensive purposes broke. Transit, both public and private vehicular, is grinding to a halt and no major improvements are beyond the pipedream stage.

Thanks to the Ford disaster, the political situation is even worse: the urban/suburban divide is more polarized than ever. City Hall is a largely dysfunctional mess with no progressive members holding any of the influential positions. The anti-tax, private funding for everything meme is still dominant, and will likely continue under the Ford lite policies of John Tory.

That the only progressive candidate in the last election received 20% of the vote in the latest election is especially troubling. The kind of visionary, future oriented thinking that was encouraged during the Miller years have been relegated to the dustbin, seemingly for good, and only a few of the initiatives that began under his leadership survived the Ford years. There is little creative thinking or imaginative proposals coming from any of the cities leaders in the public or private realm. For all intensive purposes Toronto is in a holding pattern, held captive by business and political leaders who are in serious denial regarding the policy measures and spending initiatives that are needed to get the city out of the current, strangulated mess.

As for predicting our future course for the remainder of the century, as TR tried to do, well that's really quite impossible. The global bar for "alpha cities" is rising fast and most of the economic expansion and exciting urban growth is happening in Asia and the Middle East. Toronto's already tenuous "alpha" rating is being surpassed by newly minted centers like Dubai, Seoul, Shenzen, Mumbai and New Delhi. Our fortunes are tied to the shockingly declining superpower to the south that in time will be the world's third largest economy with an utterly dysfunctional government that caters exclusively to the corporate plutocracy.

By comparison, Sydney and Melbourne--Australia's twin turbos which to some degree share Toronto's predicament--are poised to reap some of the rewards from the resource needs of their rising neighbours. Europe's middle cities like Madrid and Berlin are willing to spend on infrastructure so as to be appealing to the emerging "creative class" diaspora fleeing their increasingly unliveable home countries. Toronto is currently not doing anything to improve itself over the long run and be an appealing destination for this class.

A possible long term bright spot is the return of a manufacturing base brought about by a low Canadian dollar and rising labour costs abroad. But, unlike in the past, the wages for these new jobs will be low with no attendant benefits. But this alone will not make up for the egregiously short term thinking that currently plagues our body politic. So, without a sea change among Toronto's civic leaders, long term prospects are also not so good.

Irishmonk said:

Our fortunes are tied to the shockingly declining superpower to the south that in time will be the world's third largest economy with an utterly dysfunctional government that caters exclusively to the corporate plutocracy.

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Our government in Ontario is no different, in fact worse. We are rife with corruption, mismanagement and high taxes, and saddled with a largely fat, ignorant and self-entitled electorate that smugly clings in denial to the chimera that we are better than Americans. Sad.

Wow. I find the pessimism about Toronto's future in this thread shocking. I realize the city is plagued with substantial problems, many of its own making (aided and abetted by a rudderless, indifferent provincial government) but the gloom and doom and dour predictions for its future are hardly what Toronto needs to get its act together. A little bit of boosterism would go a long way, methinks. Perhaps that's hard in the wake of the criminally idiotic Ford years, I guess. The city seems more divided by race and class than ever.

However, this notion that the international bar is rising so fast is something I find absurd. The history of cities is about rising and falling fortunes, both for the cities themselves and for their respective nations. No city can make itself completely immune to long-term downward economic trends or the fortunes of war, famine or extreme weather. Mumbai may be soaring upward but is the equality of its citizenry a sure thing? Without a relatively level playing field and at least a modicum of affordability, all cities face the prospect of internal rot through insupportable strategies and cynical, navel-gazing political leadership.

Toronto may be faltering in its prospects for substantial improvement but I think people are chasing rainbows if they think that rising stars in the east are destined to reach the top and stay there indefinitely. Corruption, complacency and indifference know no borders.

I'd say more and try to answer the given questions, but I have to run an errand. I'll check back later - those are certainly excellent questions to ponder over.

Toronto still has a long way to go to become an alpha-plus city.

Its congestion is very much the highest in the Global North, almost rivalling that of Hyderabad, Bangkok, Manila, and Jakarta (those aforementioned four are rapidly-growing cities in the Global South).

I hope that John Tory could make Toronto a much better city and brush off its laughingstock status. At least Toronto's rapid transit system is being expanded rather rapidly.

Johnny Au said:

Its congestion is very much the highest in the Global North, almost rivalling that of Hyderabad, Bangkok, Manila, and Jakarta (those aforementioned four are rapidly-growing cities in the Global South).

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Congestion in Toronto is, thankfully, relatively easy to mitigate due to the huge amount of inefficiently used transportation infrastructure we have available (several substantial surface corridors). Fixing congestion in a city like London where both the surface and underground are already packed is a very different matter.

What's been promised isn't enough, but continued investment of roughly 1% of the provincial budget per year into transportation across Ontario will keep things moving for the foreseeable future (perhaps HSR to Ottawa for the non-GTA component).

some of these opinions are hilarious. toronto is one of the best cities in the world and alpha, those of you that delude themselves into thinking that it's not are kind of pathetic and should probably change your minds or leave. congestion is on par with bangkok and jakarta? are you insane? have you ever been to those cities? dude, people stand in traffic for 5 hours a day. toronto's traffic is so smooth that only accidents lead to gridlock. traffic has actually gotten better over the past few years, i've noticed. people drive better and are in less of a hurry which leads to better flow. it's amazing to see how efficient and intelligent torontonians have become. full of students from around the world, asia especially, which brings massive wealth to us. great financial reputation. great music scene. high wages.

toronto is amazing. it's a perfect mix of ottawa and new york city. sleepy and rich but also busy and extravagant. this is why i will continue to live here for a long time and why it'll continue to be known as one of the best major cities to live in the world.

yin_yang said:

some of these opinions are hilarious. toronto is one of the best cities in the world and alpha, those of you that delude themselves into thinking that it's not are kind of pathetic and should probably change your minds or leave. congestion is on par with bangkok and jakarta? are you insane? have you ever been to those cities? dude, people stand in traffic for 5 hours a day. toronto's traffic is so smooth that only accidents lead to gridlock. traffic has actually gotten better over the past few years, i've noticed. people drive better and are in less of a hurry which leads to better flow. it's amazing to see how efficient and intelligent torontonians have become. full of students from around the world, asia especially, which brings massive wealth to us. great financial reputation. great music scene. high wages.

toronto is amazing. it's a perfect mix of ottawa and new york city. sleepy and rich but also busy and extravagant. this is why i will continue to live here for a long time and why it'll continue to be known as one of the best major cities to live in the world.

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"Rich and extravagant" lol, perhaps you are the one that is deluded. Mind boggling.

Congestion is bad in Toronto, but comparing it to Jakarta or Bangkok with a straight-face is ridiculous.

Toronto has a lot of issues, but some of the criticism in this thread is suffering from a problem with seeing the forest for the trees. Globally, Toronto is pretty well-regarded, which is why immigration to this area is so high.

There are definitely a lot of things that could be improved, but overall, we have a high standard of living, stable government, fairly steady economy, and still have good class mobility (unlike our friends to the south). All of this will continue to make us an attractive destination for immigration.

The key goals of the next 20-30 years should be investment in all sectors - but especially work mobility, to capitalize on that immigration and provide as many opportunities as possible for residents, newcomers, and future newcomers.

Register123 said:

"Rich and extravagant" lol, perhaps you are the one that is deluded. Mind boggling.

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you really don't think people here are well-off? average gdp per capita must be close to $50,000 and when i walk or drive around town, i see nothing but that. people may not be HAPPY. but few people are. even rich people are not happy because money can't buy happiness. only meditation and positive thinking can do that. my parents have millions of dollars that they sit on but they aren't happy. my best friend makes $25,000 per day and he's depressed and miserable. it's all in the mind.

perhaps you're looking at toronto the wrong way if you think it isn't rich and extravagant. have you ever been to russia or africa? i was born in russia. there's a reason i live in toronto. cushy lifestyle and everyone is the best.

I don't think Toronto is the most congested city in the developed world, and I'm pretty sure it's far far better than Kolkata, Hyderabad and Jakarta (I think Bangkok's not as bad as those, but probably still worse than Toronto).

This is my impression of the various contenders.

I would say these cities are definitely ahead of Toronto: Los Angeles, New York City, London, Paris, Tokyo
Less obvious but probably still ahead: Berlin, Singapore, Seoul, Hong Kong, some smaller Japanese cities (others might be in next two categories), Chicago and if you consider them single cities - some of the conurbations in Germany+Randstad
About on par: Chicago, Bay Area, Washington and maybe Boston, Milan and Sydney and maybe maybe Dallas
Slightly behind: Melbourne, Houston, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Detroit (far behind in some measures, but economy is still decently big), and then Barcelona+Madrid (much better urbanism/transit, weaker economically)

Then you have some cities that are less wealthy, but still far ahead of Lagos, Delhi, Kinshasa, Dhaka, etc and much bigger, they're not as important in finance, but I think the importance of finance is over-rated. These are places that have the resources to continue to develop rapidly, I would say the first tier among these is ahead of Toronto, and then next one is quite close. I wouldn't really consider these third world cities because they have no shantytowns (although they do have crowded and poor neighbourhoods).
-Sao Paulo, Shanghai, Beijing, Buenos Aires
And in a tier a bit below
-Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Taipei, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur
And below still
-Tianjin, Chonqing, Istanbul, Cairo

Then there's some cities with some shantytowns but not too many and still relatively developed and big, I'd put Toronto a bit ahead of the first tier of these. Some of these cities like Rio are often in the spotlight for having slums but even most of these "slums" have running water, sewers, electricity, masonry buildings, often even internet access, although they can be quite poor and high crime, they're still a far cry from real slums like the ones common in Africa (and a few places elsewhere).
1st: Mexico, Rio, Johannesburg
2nd: Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City
3rd: Karachi (doesn't seem to have that many shantytowns)

Lots of slums and shantytowns, but at least a decent amount of middle class as well
-Big Indian cities, Manilla

Lots of slums and relatively small middle class
1st tier: Dhaka
2nd tier: Lagos, Kinshasa

Not sure how to compare: Moscow, St Petersburg, Dubai, Tehran, Baghdad, Luanda

Not sure about some of the other big south american cities ex: Lima, Bogota, Santiago, Belo Horizonte... some of them have issues with crime (esp Bogota), others less so. South American cities are generally not growing very fast though, and less wealthy, so they have less of a chance at surpassing Toronto. Only Bogota and Lima are significantly bigger.

I would say that:

Africa and especially South Asia is overpopulated imo and getting worse, so there will continue to be a big gap in wealth vs Toronto imo, projections of economic growth in these regions are overestimated imo because they don't take into account resource scarcity issues
China and Latin America are less overpopulated than South Asia and have relatively moderate population growth
Southeast Asia is not too overpopulated and have a population growing at a decent pace

What genius thinks a decade has eleven years?

Can we postpone this chat until we're half way through the decade?

YR 1 - 2011
YR 2 - 2012
YR 3 - 2013
YR 4 - 2014
YR 5 - 2015
Halfway point - Dec 31, 2015
YR 6 - 2016
YR 7 - 2017
YR 8 - 2018
YR 9 - 2019
YR 10 -2020

I think there is some confusion in this thread regarding alpha cities and what the discussion is about. I think the original intention of the thread was to discuss Toronto in terms of the status of it's development and seeing development as a proxy for power and influence moving forward.

Toronto has a great standard of living. Toronto has, by many measurements a higher standard of living than the World's great cities such as New York, London, Hong Kong etc. But standard of living and alpha as defined as a measure of power, influence, and development are two entirely separate things. It is likely, almost guaranteed that the most alpha cities in the world will never have the highest standard of living and hence will never be the best cities to live in for the average person. Toronto is an excellent blend of the standard of living and alpha measures. That is it's secret and one not appreciated by many critics of the city.

On the other hand with respect to alpha, beta etc. as it pertains to a measure of power, influence, and development Toronto is not bad and a good performer amongst it's western peers. However, we must admit that the power and influence of the West is in decline, not in absolute terms but because the pie is growing so fast. As power and influence become more equal around the world we cannot ignore the fact that all of North America makes up just 5 percent or so of the global population. In that context we can only expect one city to eventually make a list of the top 20 most powerful and influential cities on earth. So unless Toronto leap-frogs New York, LA or Mexico City etc. it won't even make the top 25 alpha cities no matter what we do right.

Face the facts, but don't feel bad about it. Toronto has every opportunity to continue being an amazing blend of Power, Influence, and High Standard of Living. Ultimately, would you rather live in a place that offers you the benefits of an alpha city but the high standard of living of a smaller community, or blow your brains out in the rat race of a top alpha city? There is no right answer.

Admiral Beez said:

What genius thinks a decade has eleven years?

Can we postpone this chat until we're half way through the decade?

YR 1 - 2011
YR 2 - 2012
YR 3 - 2013
YR 4 - 2014
YR 5 - 2015
Halfway point - Dec 31, 2015
YR 6 - 2016
YR 7 - 2017
YR 8 - 2018
YR 9 - 2019
YR 10 -2020

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ok Mr Genius... so according to you the year 2010 is not part of the 10s? What next, the year 2000 is not part of the new millennium?