High Speed Rail: London - Kitchener-Waterloo - Pearson Airport - Toronto

[reaperexpress]

High speed rail would do something you can't measure on any existing modes of travel: induce demand. The ability to get from Kitchener to London in 25 minutes, or from Toronto to Kitchener in 45 minutes would result in a radical change in what is possible in terms of economic connections and commutes. As one example, it would bolster the tech sector in Kitchener as companies would be able to recruit from the much broader pool of talent in Toronto (i.e. not just engineering).

The case for HSR isn't a transportation spending efficiency one, it's an economic development one. Transportation projects aren't just about meeting current needs, and that's been recognized by those who built out our existing transportation networks.

I would argue that the economic development potential of regional rail is greater than for HSR, even for cities which would be served by the latter.

When I say regional rail, I mean limited-stop service connecting the centres of each urban area the corridor (Kitchener, Guelph, Georgetown, Brampton, Pearson, Mount Dennis, Union) at up to 160 km/h on existing tracks and 200 km/h on new tracks. Union-Kitchener would probably take around 1h20. The upgraded tracks would also allow VIA to make the same trip in around 1h10, skipping stops in Georgetown, Mount Dennis and possibly Brampton.

I'll compare it to HSR as per Glen Murray's idea: London - Kitchener - Pearson - Union at up to 320 km/h, probably taking around 0h50. I'm assuming that ticket prices would be roughly the same as current VIA prices (which is rather optimistic). Regional service would probably take around 1h30 to 1h40 from Toronto to Kitchener due to the lower investment in tracks and would not be as frequent as the above scenario. The construction cost would be a fair bit higher, though both scenarios include big expenditures such as a new connection to Pearson Airport and a new freight bypass line from Bramalea to Milton.

The vast majority of trips are not between Kitchener, Pearson and Toronto. We will always have trains serving cities such as Guelph and Brampton, but HSR does absolutely nothing to help these services. Regional rail, on the other hand, would be a single service serving many of the different demand patterns, which makes regular service (at least 1 train per hour) financially viable.

Yes, of course a service with a 50 minute travel time will induce more demand than one with an 70 minute travel time. However, for trips as short as those in the Kitchener-Toronto corridor, service frequency and ticket price are also very significant factors. VIA is already 21 to 29 minutes faster than GO from Kitchener to Toronto, but even with weekend service and an identical number of daily weekday departures, the demand for VIA is minimal while GO is seeing strong and growing ridership. That's because the trip costs $25.99 on VIA but only $14.49 on GO.

The development potential around train stations is greater when the service is more useful day-to-day. Just compare the demand around subway stations to that around GO stations the same distance from downtown Toronto. Living around Kitchener Central station with regional rail would be very attractive because not only would people be able to get to Toronto but they could also get to Guelph, or Brampton. They would be buying into general ease of access, rather than a sort of portal to downtown Toronto.

Yes, I realize that there is a small group of higher-income workers who would shell out big bucks to save 20 minutes on the trip, but I don't think that that benefit outweighs the increased intensification incentive in downtown Kitchener. It certainly doesn't pay off when the relative benefits to downtown Guelph and downtown Brampton are considered.

West of Kitchener, HSR makes more sense. The larger distances between cities means that the massive expenditure in HSR actually results in big time savings, and there is little need for other services.

 

[1overcosc]

My suggestion would be to start with a dedicated HSR line from Kingston to Ottawa, built to 300 km/h standards. It would be limited to 200 km/h (or 177 km/h with current equipment) until we electrify the whole line, but would still provide significant time savings on the Toronto-Ottawa trip. This would allow us to consolidate service onto the Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal route, rather than Toronto-Ottawa and Toronto-Montreal separately. With most of the service lumped into one, hourly frequencies would be much easier to attain.

That's actually a very good idea. Most of the Kingston-Ottawa route is only single track (after it diverges from the mainline at Brockville) with a few passing sidings which significantly limits the reliability and frequency potential of the track. There's also the massive slowdown at Smiths Falls that adds almost 10-20 minutes to the trip (trains crawl at practically walking speed through that town--like Guelph).

If Toronto-Ottawa, Toronto-Montreal, and Ottawa-Montreal services were merged into a single Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal service there would already be hourly frequencies. Toronto-Ottawa and Toronto-Montreal are bihourly services now. Kingston-Toronto effectively has close to hourly service already.

 

[gweed123]

The problem is that to first beef up the service between Toronto and Ottawa, we'd need to invest even more heavily in the existing tracks than we already have. If the eventual goal is HSR, we might as well use new dedicated tracks to ease bottlenecks, rather than spending billions on capacity that will become wasted once we switch to HSR. Unlike west of Toronto, the bulk of travel in the Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal corridor is actually between those 3 cities.

My suggestion would be to start with a dedicated HSR line from Kingston to Ottawa, built to 300 km/h standards. It would be limited to 200 km/h (or 177 km/h with current equipment) until we electrify the whole line, but would still provide significant time savings on the Toronto-Ottawa trip. This would allow us to consolidate service onto the Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal route, rather than Toronto-Ottawa and Toronto-Montreal separately. With most of the service lumped into one, hourly frequencies would be much easier to attain.

The California HSR project is using a similar implementation strategy. They are building a 209 km segment between Fresno and Bakersfield to 320 km/h standards, and it will be used by the existing Amtrak trains at 177 km/h until the full route is complete. But even under diesel operation, the line would apparently save 45-60 minutes of travel time.

I think this is a wise strategy. Although I wouldn't route the Toronto-Montreal trains through Ottawa, but rather build a new bypass line just south of Ottawa, with a branch heading into Ottawa, probably along the southern part of the O-Train corridor until it links up with the main line into the Central Station. This way, that branch could serve the Ottawa Airport as well.

 

[reaperexpress]

That's actually a very good idea. Most of the Kingston-Ottawa route is only single track (after it diverges from the mainline at Brockville) with a few passing sidings which significantly limits the reliability and frequency potential of the track. There's also the massive slowdown at Smiths Falls that adds almost 10-20 minutes to the trip (trains crawl at practically walking speed through that town--like Guelph).

Thanks for the supportive comments!

The last time I traveled from Ottawa to Toronto, a couple years ago, I tracked the whole trip by GPS. Because the train was non-stop from Fallowfield to Toronto, I was able to collect a wealth of data about the railway. I used it to calculate the lost time due to the Smiths Falls slow zone.

The map below displays the existing railways (blue), an HSR line (red), and the low points in speed (in mph) I measured on my trip.

My proposed initial line would be from Kingston to where the lines cross east of Smiths Falls (The train slowed to 85 mph there). The line to the east is the bypass south of Ottawa, which would be the final segment built.

On my trip, it took 14 minutes to cover the 22 km from the split east of Smiths Falls to the place where the two lines cross just south of Smiths Falls, an average speed of 94 km/h. Assuming that a 177 km/h cruising speed would increase this to 160 km/h (including slowing down to rejoin the existing railway), the segment would take 7 minutes.

My estimate for the whole initial segment (assuming an average speed of 172 km/h over the new HSL) is a travel time of 52 minutes from Fallowfield to Kingston, 35 min faster than I recorded on my trip.

At the time, the schedule was 3h 59 from Ottawa to Toronto, but now it is only 3h 48. Assuming that all the time saved is elsewhere along the route, this change would reduce the travel time from Toronto to Ottawa to 3h 23. In comparison, Google maps estimates that driving takes 4h 04 with no traffic.

 

[mpd618]

West of Kitchener, HSR makes more sense. The larger distances between cities means that the massive expenditure in HSR actually results in big time savings, and there is little need for other services.

Well, Glen Murray's HSR time estimates boiled down to it being HSR west of Kitchener, and slightly faster, limited-stop regional rail east of Kitchener. So not necessarily too different!

 

[reaperexpress]

Well, Glen Murray's HSR time estimates boiled down to it being HSR west of Kitchener, and slightly faster, limited-stop regional rail east of Kitchener. So not necessarily too different!

Sounds like I need to look into his plan in more detail then. During the election my impression was that he was mostly talking Kitchener-Toronto in the first place, hence my confusion.

 

[TOareaFan]

Sounds like I need to look into his plan in more detail then. During the election my impression was that he was mostly talking Kitchener-Toronto in the first place, hence my confusion.

He was...he was talking about a HSR line connecting Kitchener-Pearson-Union. A separate service from RER and London was added in later in the campaign.

 

[mpd618]

Sounds like I need to look into his plan in more detail then. During the election my impression was that he was mostly talking Kitchener-Toronto in the first place, hence my confusion.

That's how he was talking about it, but these figures indicate that the highest speed was to be London-Kitchener:

Murray said total travel time should be 71 minutes from London to Toronto and 48 minutes from Kitchener to Toronto.

 

[Urban Sky]

I: 48 minutes for Toronto-Kitchener is feasible with existing alignment at 160 km/h!

Hi out there,

I have been following this and other forums for some while and I must say that I really appreciate the discussions here because you display an incredible amount of creativity on the one hand, but also the knowledge and expertise needed to refocus discussions if plans get too outlandish (I'll just say "Why not build a tunnel under Lake Ontario?"...). If you have followed the discussions over HSR lines from Edmonton to Fort McMurray, Calgary to Banff or from New York via the Bering Street to Beijing on the "High-Speed Rail Canada" Facebook page, you'll surely know what I mean.

Before I start contributing, I'd just like to warn you that I wrote my Bachelor Thesis last year about High Speed Rail in Canada at a university in England and that I therefore might sound at times a bit overly "academic" and my English somewhat "British".

I would argue that the economic development potential of regional rail is greater than for HSR, even for cities which would be served by the latter.

When I say regional rail, I mean limited-stop service connecting the centres of each urban area the corridor (Kitchener, Guelph, Georgetown, Brampton, Pearson, Mount Dennis, Union) at up to 160 km/h on existing tracks and 200 km/h on new tracks. Union-Kitchener would probably take around 1h20. The upgraded tracks would also allow VIA to make the same trip in around 1h10, skipping stops in Georgetown, Mount Dennis and possibly Brampton.

I'll compare it to HSR as per Glen Murray's idea: London - Kitchener - Pearson - Union at up to 320 km/h, probably taking around 0h50. I'm assuming that ticket prices would be roughly the same as current VIA prices (which is rather optimistic). Regional service would probably take around 1h30 to 1h40 from Toronto to Kitchener due to the lower investment in tracks and would not be as frequent as the above scenario. The construction cost would be a fair bit higher, though both scenarios include big expenditures such as a new connection to Pearson Airport and a new freight bypass line from Bramalea to Milton.

The vast majority of trips are not between Kitchener, Pearson and Toronto. We will always have trains serving cities such as Guelph and Brampton, but HSR does absolutely nothing to help these services. Regional rail, on the other hand, would be a single service serving many of the different demand patterns, which makes regular service (at least 1 train per hour) financially viable. [...]

The development potential around train stations is greater when the service is more useful day-to-day. Just compare the demand around subway stations to that around GO stations the same distance from downtown Toronto. Living around Kitchener Central station with regional rail would be very attractive because not only would people be able to get to Toronto but they could also get to Guelph, or Brampton. They would be buying into general ease of access, rather than a sort of portal to downtown Toronto. [...]

West of Kitchener, HSR makes more sense. The larger distances between cities means that the massive expenditure in HSR actually results in big time savings, and there is little need for other services.

I couldn't agree more with you, reaperexpress, even though I think you are even overestimating the effect of building new tracks for 200 km/h over upgrading (including electrification) existing tracks to 160 km/h. Given that the surveyors of Grand Trunk, CNR and CPR never had speeds in excess of 120 km/h in mind when they chose the radii for their tracks, you can only upgrade straight sections to such speeds. I would therefore keep in mind that the acceleration and deceleration distances from 120 km/h to 200 km/h and back add up to 3.63+2.67=6.30 km, whereas 1.11+1.17=2.28 km are sufficient to accelerate to 160 km/h and directly back to 120 km/h. In order to calculate some reasonably realistic travel times, I have assigned the following speed limits to the existing Toronto-Georgetown-Kitchener rail line:

As you can see, I have identified sections of a total length of 78.8 km (or 77.6% of total distance between Toronto and Kitchener) as potentially capable of speeds in excess of 120 km/h, meaning (at least theoretically) that speeds of 160 km/h can be reached on 67 km (85% of the 78.8 km), whereas 200 km/h can only be reached on 46 km (58% of the 78.8 km). Choosing 200 km/h over 160 km/h will therefore save passengers traveling between Kitchener and Toronto only 4:30 minutes at the very (optimistic - if we try to imagine a train passing with 200 km/h through Brampton station) best, whilst it would require the upgrade of all level crossings with "impenetrable barriers" (according to FRA regulations).

Whenever your liberal government tells you that a 320 km/h line would connect Kitchener with Toronto in only 48 minutes, you should therefore reply that upgrading the existing line to only half the speed would have exactly the same effect, but only at a small fraction of the costs. This would be of course at the expense of the stop at Pearson Airport, but as has been previously discussed in this thread, having any Kitchener-Toronto service serving the airport is either unduly time-consuming, prohibitively expensive or (most probably) both. As it is equally unrealistic and ridiculous to expect passengers to travel from Kitchener via Union Station to Pearson, there would be only two scenarios to accommodate Airport passengers traveling from Kitchener:

I) Stop at Malton rail station and shuttle bus to the Airport terminal
II) Stop at Weston rail station and across-the-platform transfer to the Pearson Union Express

As I follow the discussion here and elsewhere, Metrolinx will favor option II whereas everyone else favors option I - in both cases a preference primarily driven by financial considerations.

In order to prioritize travel speed at peak times and frequency at all other times, I would suggest three different train types for the service between Kitchener and Toronto:

• Express trains making non-stop journeys in the morning from Kitchener to Toronto and in the afternoon in the opposite direction.
• Regional trains making intermediary stops in either Weston (Scenario I) or Malton (Scenario II) and Brampton, Guelph and during peak-hours also Georgetown and Acton.
• Local trains (frequent GO services) would run from Toronto to Kitchener (during peak hours only Mount Pleasant) and stop at all intermediary stops as they do today.

As you can see, travel times of even less than 1:10 hours would be feasible and that without dropping stops as essential as Brampton (which I think we have already established as being of equal size than Kitchener-Waterloo), whereas even the stop-everywhere GO train would be faster than VIA Rail is today.

Greetings from Montreal and let me know if I lost you somewhere in the tables...



Related posts:
II: Toronto-London on existing Kitchener route is feasible in 97 minutes at 160 km/h
III: Toronto-London in 93 minutes at 160 km/h on existing Brantford route
IV: Liberals' 23 minutes promisse for HSR Kitchener-London is unrealistic!
V: Toronto-Kitchener-London vs Toronto-Burlington-London
VI: Comparison of acceleration and deceleration values from various sources

 

[ssiguy2]

I actually don't think a lot of Kitchener people will take the route. The reality is that the route will be slowest between Kitchener and Union and if GO RER takes effect then the last stop between Brampton and Union maybe Malton. Considering the significant difference in price and the fact that driving is still a fairly fast option I don't think that portion will get a s much ridership as anticipated. London on the other hand is a different matter.

London is arguably the 3rd most important city in the province. It is a major regional centre for education, health, social, and governmental services as well as entertainment and shopping. There is no branch of provincial or federal government that doesn't have it's regional office for Southern Ontario {except Toronto} in London.

London is also a major transportation hub for freeways, freight, and VIA. VIA London is the 4th busiest station in the country and, very importantly, Greyhound also uses London as it's regional hub. There are many Londoners who use Greyhound instead of VIA because, believe it or not, it's usually faster. HSR could take over a lot of those trips and create a new major destination for Londoners at Pearson which Londoners, and by definition all of the 1.2 million citizens of South-Western Ontario, have no access to now except by small airport express buses. That is yet more ridership that people are not taking into account.

There is also the issue of the riders from Sarnia and especially Chatham/Windsor which are home to 500,000 Ontarians and a direct connection to Detroit and the large Amtrak network and potential HSR system.

Another issue, for those not familiar with London, is how long the trip to Toronto is even when driving. This is because the 401 even now only touches the southern tip of the city. London's traffic due to having no freeways, few thru roads, and a dysfunctional road system is hell to get around. Considering London's 380,000 population, traffic in London is the stuff legends are made of. In rush hour it can easily take 45 minute just to get from North London to the 401 let alone the trip to Toronto. Northern London is also the fastest growing part of the city and the wealthiest who would support HSR.

Getting to the 401 has become such a pain in the ass that many in Northern London actually no longer take the 40 but rather use highways 4 & 8 via Stratford to get to Kitchener and then the Conestoga to the 401 to get to Toronto. By the time 100,000 in the northern part of the city get to the 401 at Wellington they could be past Stratford where the Highway 7 & 8 begins as freeway. The VIA rail station on the other hand is right downtown and due to London's quite good transit service it is accessible to everyone in all part of the city.

The reason VIA traffic has fallen from London is due to the cutbacks in service and VIA trains stopping at every little place on the route making it painfully slow. The traffic from London will be higher than anticipated for these reasons.

 

[44 North]

I think you make some very valid points re London, but at the same time I have to weigh them alongside the numbers. Growth rate for the CMA is only 3.7%, and some of the CMA subdivision have seen losses (e.g Thames Centre). Not to mention the fact that the CMA comprises an enormous area of well-distanced centres - 2,665km2 with a population density of 178.1/km2. Things only worsen in Southwest ON. Windsor and Chatham-Kent have seen major population losses, and Sarnia isn’t seeing much at all. Factor in the current economic trend, and things in general are looking pretty bleak out there.

The Kitchener-Cambrige-Waterloo CMA on the other hand has seen higher growth (5.7%), and is a much tighter conglomerate of population centres - 827km2 with a density of 577km2. It’s also managing higher density growth and greenbelt preservation very well, and is within workday commuting distance of the GTA, and a broader economy.

Now let’s compare all this to the enormous population centres and CMA subdivisions that make up the GTA: Growth across the board, with some seeing significant double digit increases. As well as planned steady increases for the next decades.

I think it would make sense to have London connected by HSR in theory...but I can’t see it being very high on any list of priority. The more pessimistic side of me envisions more cutbacks and loss of service than what exists now - perhaps with a focus instead on small highway widening projects. And as it stands, the 401 and 403 from London to KW (or the western GTA) will be reliable for the next long while.

I get that London is “the big city” for many in the prov, but it doesn’t seem like it will get much bigger. It shares many of the planning missteps as Toronto or many other cities, but doesn’t have the population or growth to buck that trend or right any wrongs. IMO the demand for rail and commuting remedies in the GTHA, or KW, take natural precedence simply because of the numbers. And the Prov has already cancelled the Ontario Northland to service Northern ON, so clearly there is a limit as to how much a long-haul rider can be subsidized.

 

[ssiguy2]

London's CMA rae is bigger than KWC but the city itself with 380,000 is more compact and far less decentralized with KWC being divided into 3 cities and even one of those {Cambridge} is just an amalgamation of 3 cities. In urban form London is more like Hamilton and KWC is more like Niagara region.

London is close enough to make HSR a viable alternative yet no so close that it would have to compete with GO RER. Also HSR from London would be far quicker for Londoners going to Union than it will be for Kitchener. The real time savings on the route will come from Kitchener to London not Kitchener to Toronto.

 

[innsertnamehere]

48 minute HSR ride, 1:05 car ride presuming no traffic, and there is ALWAYS traffic. Its pretty competitive for kitchener, and I can see it being very popular.

 

[ehlow]

Even regular GO train service between Kitchener & Toronto, if scheduled regularly throughout the day, say every 2 hours or hourly in both directions, would be attractive & competitive.

Traffic is really bad these days on the 401. Last time I drove to Waterloo Region it took 45 min just to get through Milton alone. There were several problems so overall it took 2-2.5 hours in total.

A comfortable ride on a train where you can do other things and travel time is reliable would be preferable.

There is a lot of bus traffic generated already between KW & Toronto from students going back & forth from the universities in KW. Much of ridership would go to the train service, especially if there are a multiple stops in Toronto (since many students aren't going downtown).

Other ridership would be generated if there were a reliable & painless way of going between the cities. KW residents who don't want to fight their way through traffic would be more likely to come to Toronto to watch a sports game or whatever for a night.

Of course, high speed would be amazing, but even regular train service would be a huge improvement.

 

[innsertnamehere]

You have to remember as well that by the time HSR is built the 401 will be a collector-express system up to Milton. The province has funding secured to slowly widen it with the Milton stretch being finished in the early to mid 2020s from my understanding.