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2015 Federal Election

The switch in recent days from the Conservatives traditional subtle racist position to overtly racist has caught the attention of the mainstream British media:

If Stephen Harper is serious about criminalising 'barbaric cultural practices', then he should arrest himself for even suggesting it - And while he's at it, he can lock up all the other Western leaders who have savaged the Muslim world too

Barbaric cultural practices ... what a bizarre concept. Someone should ask the Conservatives if a Conservative Prime Minister's male orgy involving a dead pigs head is a barbaric cultural practice. The British media is correct to ask that if this announcement is about crime and justice, why then is it being announced by the Minister of Immigration.

This has the fingerprints of Lynton Crosby all over it. However, I think this time he may have misjudged his audience. His trademark is making racism a wedge issue in countries that are traditionally more racist than Canada (Australia and UK). It might well have worked for pushing member of the fascist British National Party (called by some the British Nazi Party) and the more mainstream but extremely right-wing UK Independence Party to vote Conservative ... but I'm not seeing how this strategy works in Canada. We also know the Conservatives do get significant support from ethnic communities here ... and I don't see how this, or the recent announcement that the Conservatives will seek the deportation of 100% Canadians born in Canada to countries they've never even visited before. Even upping the ante on the religious headdress issue would seem to potentially alienate communities where some members have supported the Conservatives - such as Sikhs.

I'd also think that the recent barrage of such stuff, would make the non-hard core Conservative support uncomfortable. And perhaps we are starting to see it in the polling. NDP support has been steadily slipping (and I don't see how that will change in the rest of Canada with the recent announcement by Mulcair that he is going to give special accommodation and cash to Quebec, and force social programmes on the other provinces), but the long term Liberal trend has been nothing but up - with the most most recent polls showing a separation and the Liberals breaking away from the pack and pushing towards majority territory.

Certainly shapes up to be an interesting last couple of weeks. I'd expect the Tories to start panicking now. Now things will start to get ugly. I wonder what invented crisis we will have next.

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If that trend is real, it looks like the Liberals have started to materialize as the ABC choice.
That's the question though ... is the trend real? Or just some polling aberrations. If you look at the provincial breakdown, it's even more striking in Ontario.

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Well it's been a fairly consistent trend for a few days now which means it isn't a one-off. It's either real, or a problem with their polling methodology. It's too bad Nanos is the only one doing daily polling.
 
If they were all unique polls, I'd agree. But with the 3-day running average it's tougher to say. Though it does tend to show emerging trends sooner ... but hard to say if emerging trend or simple fluxuation.
 
Did anyone watch the Trudeau rally this afternoon in Brampton? 7000 people showed up to listen to Trudeau speak. Gotta say, the event was pretty moving. If this gets any airtime on the major networks, it could definitely boost Liberal fortunes.

Some of the highlights:

Trudeau called out to Conservatives by saying "you are our neighbours, not our enemies; your party has left you"

"Harper isn't afraid of me (Trudeau), he's afraid of you, and he ought to be"

Barely any mention of Mulcair at all. I guess internal polls are also showing the NDP crashing.

Having his entire family on stage was also a great image. His youngest was all smiles up there, waving to the thousands of people who showed up, even holding a Trudeau 2015 sign while being held by his father. I can see that image resonating with families, boosting his claims that Liberals are going to help families do better.


That's the question though ... is the trend real? Or just some polling aberrations. If you look at the provincial breakdown, it's even more striking in Ontario.

I really wonder why the NDP is struggling to make gains in Ontario. We saw this in the Provincial election too. There has to be something that is causing this decrease. The Liberals themselves don't have a rosy reputation in this Province.
 
And I have to say, If the Liberals win this election, we are about to see some massive transit expansion in this city. Combined with the Provincial stimulus for infrastructure, which is already going towards a number of large projects, I think we are pretty much getting a green light for all of the projects currently in the pipeline. That alone excites me the most about the Liberal platform.
 
And I have to say, If the Liberals win this election, we are about to see some massive transit expansion in this city. Combined with the Provincial stimulus for infrastructure, which is already going towards a number of large projects, I think we are pretty much getting a green light for all of the projects currently in the pipeline. That alone excites me the most about the Liberal platform.
I hope that if we get a minority government, the NDP still push for a dedicated transit fund. I doubt the Liberals would reject it.
 
I hope that if we get a minority government, the NDP still push for a dedicated transit fund. I doubt the Liberals would reject it.

No need. The Liberals have already committed to it. The only difference is that the Liberals are going to double the amount spent in the first two years, and provide the funding immediately. After the initial investment, the funding will be cut back to the same level that the NDP and CPC are proposing.
 
That's the question though ... is the trend real? Or just some polling aberrations. If you look at the provincial breakdown, it's even more striking in Ontario.

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Ontario has always been a province to vote Conservative or Liberal; we're a province that still hate the NDP after 25 years. :rolleyes:

The uptick is more seen in B.C. and could be a result of the A.B.C voter fear that the NDP haven't made inroads in vote rich Ontario to oust the Conservatives or even form government.
 
And I have to say, If the Liberals win this election, we are about to see some massive transit expansion in this city. Combined with the Provincial stimulus for infrastructure, which is already going towards a number of large projects, I think we are pretty much getting a green light for all of the projects currently in the pipeline. That alone excites me the most about the Liberal platform.

I would temper my expectations - given the tendency for the party to campaign from the left and govern from the right. Not that I am particularly sold on the NDP vision either (to say nothing of those of the Cons).

re: Poll - what's interesting is that the line graph for NDP and Liberals are practically mirror image of one another, and I think it is suggestive of the ABC effect.

AoD
 
Ontario has always been a province to vote Conservative or Liberal; we're a province that still hate the NDP after 25 years. :rolleyes:.
I remember in 1991 as a 20 year old university student applying for my Canadian citizenship, motivated to get my chance to kick out the NDP after what I then perceived as some wrong doings that I can't really recall now. Fast forward 25 years and I've now voted for all three parties provincially, and may vote NDP for the first time federally. Not that my vote really matters, as Toronto Centre always votes Liberal, as most Dipper supporters in the area are I guess not citizens or marginalized (poor, racialized, old/feeble, shut-ins, insane or addicted), and thus unable or unlikely to vote.
 
I always voted Liberal but Trudeau's vote for C-51 completely lost me.
 

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