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While headlines about Toronto's real estate industry were (often justifiably) dominated by doom and gloom, data from UrbanToronto suggests some hope for the future of the industry.
No Doubt About It: Developers Proposed Fewer Projects and Fewer Units in 2025
UTPro’s year-end Developments Summary for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area shows a clear pullback in the volume of new proposals in 2025 compared with 2024. Developers put forward 318 new projects in 2025, down from 395 the year before, and the total number of dwellings proposed fell to 171,578 from 209,490. The pipeline also shifted toward earlier-stage files, with 309 of the 2025 proposals sitting in pre-construction compared to 354 in 2024, while only eight were under construction in 2025 versus 34 in 2024, and just one reached completion compared with six the year prior.
Even though 2025 saw more buildings proposed overall, rising to 1,211 from 992, the headline remains that fewer projects were filed and fewer units were brought forward, alongside lower totals for gross floor area, commercial space, site area, and parking than in 2024.
New Construction Continued to Increase, But For How Long?
The quarterly construction-start chart for the Greater Golden Horseshoe shows that new construction kept trending upward into 2025, building on the momentum that began in 2023 and accelerated through 2024. Each quarter of 2024 sat meaningfully above the levels seen a year earlier, and 2025 opened even stronger, with the highest quarterly total arriving in the first quarter before easing modestly as the year progressed. The important point is that activity did not revert to 2023 levels; instead, it stayed in the higher range that emerged in 2024, suggesting that the region’s construction pipeline remained active even as broader market conditions continued to pressure feasibility and financing.
The year-over-year view reinforces that same conclusion, with 2025 clearly outpacing 2024 in overall construction starts rather than simply shifting activity between quarters. That said, the late-year cooling visible in 2025 raises the obvious question about durability. When quarterly starts peak early and then drift downward into Q4, it can signal anything from timing effects to a more structural slowdown starting to assert itself. In other words, the data still supports the headline that construction continued to increase, but the shape of the year leaves the next question hanging: is this the new normal, or the last stretch of strength before the pipeline tightens again?
Developers Loved Rental in 2025
UTPro’s rental tracking across the Greater Golden Horseshoe makes one thing unmistakable: 2025 was a breakout year for purpose-built rental in the proposal pipeline. The number of rental units proposed nearly doubled year over year, jumping from roughly 18,000 in 2024 to about 35,000 in 2025 across Durham, Halton, Hamilton, Niagara, Peel, Simcoe, Toronto, Waterloo, Wellington, and York. That kind of increase is not a rounding error or a modest rebound; it is a clear signal that developers, investors, and landowners increasingly saw rental as the most viable path forward in a market where the economics of other housing forms have been under sustained pressure.
What strengthens the story is that the construction side moved up as well, not just the “idea” side. Rental units beginning construction rose from roughly 11,000 in 2024 to more than 17,000 in 2025, showing that a meaningful share of the rental momentum translated into projects actually advancing on-site. The gap between proposals and starts still matters, and it is always easier to propose units than to build them, but 2025 delivered growth on both fronts. In practical terms, the data points to rental becoming the central engine of new supply across the GGH—at least for now—and the key question for 2026 will be whether the surge holds, or whether feasibility constraints start to cap how much of that pipeline can realistically convert into construction.
Toronto City Council Loved Developers in 2025
for getting units over the line in 2025 than it was in 2024, at least in terms of total dwellings approved. Council-approved units rose to 142,049 in 2025 from 136,491 in 2024, even though the number of applications approved dropped sharply from 323 to 219. In plain terms, fewer files accounted for more approved homes, which is exactly what it looks like when approvals are moving through more efficiently and the city is clearing larger proposals rather than grinding through a higher volume of smaller ones.
The Ontario Land Tribunal picture, meanwhile, swung in the opposite direction on “approvals” but leaned harder into the ratification of settlements. OLT-approved units collapsed to 6,680 in 2025 from 80,097 in 2024, alongside a steep drop in appeals from 137 to 16, while units resolved through OLT settlements increased to 44,972 from 32,099 even as the number of settlements fell modestly from 67 to 59. The other tell is timing: the average application age declined to 3.51 years in 2025 from 4.67 years in 2024, suggesting that the overall approvals-and-resolution cycle skewed faster and less backlogged. Put together, the data reads like a year where Council approvals carried more of the load, and the OLT functioned less as an “approvals engine” and more as a mechanism for negotiated outcomes.
Conclusion: Green Shoots or Dead Cat Bounce?
Toronto's housing market has undoubtedly suffered from several major setbacks in recent years. From the interest rate hikes in 2022 hurting supply by increasing construction costs while simultaneously hurting investors and buyers, to more recent cuts in immigration and student visas hurting demand by reducing the number of new purchasers and renters. And other analyses that indicate that the rush of new construction may lead to a dearth of completions in the near future could very well prove true — assuming nothing changes.
But things are always changing in real estate. While macro conditions remain uncertain, the microeconomics can be more immediately affected through changes in policy.
One major policy (and attitude) shift has been at Toronto City Council, where there is clearly a new impetus to approve new projects faster than ever. This, combined with other changes to permitting smaller developments up to 6 storeys in the city's busiest areas, can dramatically reduce the costs and uncertainties in building housing.
If these trends continue, along with additional supports from the provincial and federal governments, then the market can overcome its current hurdles sooner than later. This will require continued efforts by the real estate industry to push for these positive changes. Happily, governments at all levels seem eager to listen.
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UTPro is the leading data source for developers, planners, and suppliers looking for leads for active real estate developments in the Greater Golden Horseshoe. Our data is updated in real-time as changes are made to applications, construction status, and the companies working on building these projects.
