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The first quarter of 2023 continued the trend of declining development applications to the City of Toronto, according to the latest data from UrbanToronto's UTPro data subscription service.
Developers submitted applications for 41 new large projects to the City of Toronto in Q1, a 21% decline from the 53 proposals from the same quarter last year. This is a continuation of the trend which began last year, driven by increasingly tighter credit markets.
Despite the decline in the total number of applications, the projects that were proposed this quarter were bigger than the previous year, with enough of the projects having multiple buildings that there was a 5% increase in that number, while the total GFA proposed rose 17% year-over-year, including a 23% increase in residential GFA. At the same time, the average FSI per project increased 32% to 5.31, from 4.39 over the same period last year.
Meanwhile, the total number of dwellings increased significantly, by 26%, reaching a total of 14,629, up from 11,629 in the first quarter of 2022. The average size of those units declined dramatically, however; while in Q1 in 2022, developers proposed an average of 1,015 ft² of residential Gross Floor Area (GFA) per unit, in 2023 that number collapsed by 28% to 735 ft².
Diving deeper into the composition of the dwellings, the data reveals that the push for family-friendly units has yet to bear fruit. The proportion of 2-bedroom and 3+ bedroom units fell from 39% of all units proposed to 34%, while the number of 1-bedroom units increased from 54% to 62%.
Average height also saw an uptick of 28%, showing a trend towards taller structures in Toronto's urban landscape. The mix of storeys proposed per project also shifted taller, from 40% of buildings proposing 12-storeys and up in Q1 '22 to 45% this quarter. These numbers reflect an impressively tall tallest building in Q1 '23, up 67% from Q1 2022’s tallest at 180.84m (593.3ft), to this quarter's 301.8m (990.2ft).
Developers continued to ignore commercial space. Despite proposing more total GFA, the proposed commercial GFA decreased 14% in absolute terms, and fell even sharper relative to total GFA proposed. Commercial GFA includes not only office and retail, but also industrial spaces.
The report also reveals a reduction in both the total number of vehicular parking units, as well as the ratio of parking units per dwelling — which nearly halved from 74% to 36%. At the same time, there has been a huge increase in bicycle parking per dwelling ratio, jumping from 28% to 92%. These changing numbers coincide with the City's ongoing push for more transit-oriented developments and reducing dependency on private vehicles.
These statistics show a significant shift towards higher density, larger-scale residential projects in the City of Toronto, particularly condominiums, reflecting a move towards vertical living in response to the ongoing demand for housing in the city. The trend also suggests a continued emphasis on developing transit-oriented communities, with a reduction in vehicular parking, and an increase in bike parking and smaller, higher-density dwellings.
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For more information about UTPro, contact Edward Skira.
