"TO is in its 17th year of straight gains, it cannot last. How long is long term for you 3,5 7, 10 years? The last downturn took 7 to start to recapture lost value."
That just isn't true. In 2008, after Lehman crashed, there were 2 bedroom bungalows in East York available for 325-330k (on the same street they had sold pre-Lehman for 75-100k more) and now they're close to 600k.
The market ebbs and flows and it is much more complicated than the average person or investor understands. Whether it's up, down, or flat, you should ALWAYS be able to make money.
The market will correct itself, because pricing has gotten insane. But some areas, certain builders, and some condo projects will be hit much harder than others. It's Darwinian, but the weak, stupid, and poorly informed will lose. But other will always win. When the market was super hot a chimp could have made money, anyone could have.
There may be some truth to what you say but the reality is that while you can make educated guesses, and that is what they are, in a highly priced market it is difficult to find good value. Also, even very smart savvy investors can get it wrong or events unexpected can happen. If not, all smart / informed people would be rich and that is just not the case.
I believe the reference to 7 years would have been the 1989 to 1996 recovery.
Canada had a minor correction in 2008, only held afloat by low interest rates, 40 year mortgage terms, and low requirements for down payments. The example of East York is clear in hindsight. The question is, how many knew enough or were gutsy enough to act...and of those, how many will honestly admit that most of their return was dumb luck. I say this because I don't think in 2008 one could reasonably have expected to have a 4 year almost 100% price increase. But then, maybe I am just not that smart.