I agree that the above cost escalation is problematic ( *

@allengeorge you'e missing a zero in that last line)

That said. I can see where some of it is coming from........

1) For a class 4 estimate, they've added 50% to their actual estimate (contingency risk). So where you see 4.4B, you need to know their real number is 2.9B

2) Second, they're envisioning construction starting in 2030, so 7 years from now, and they are factoring in on-going construction cost inflation between now and then.

From the Report to Waterloo Region Planning Ctte:

View attachment 466825
***

**"For the purpose of**

calculating cost escalation it was assumed that construction will occur from 2030 to

2035."
Link to actual report:

https://pub-regionofwaterloo.escribemeetings.com/filestream.ashx?DocumentId=3179
If you look at the Construction Inflation Index numbers (for all types of projects) they're brutal.

Its worth noting that general inflation was ~7% last year; but construction inflation ran closer to ~11%

I don't know what numbers they used for their go-forward here, but I think you can safely assume they're adding more than 3% per year.

If you work backwards, the cost is still high, but nowhere near as brutal as the headline number makes it seem.