“Hostage” is a bit dramatic. It’s not smart politically or marketing wise to put a half million people is a situation where they are telling friends and neighbours “we used to have good service, but not any more” (They may in turn say it a lot more dramatically than that).
I can see that reaction being something that places like Cornwall will have to swallow, but Durham is just too big - and has too many federal seats and potential riders at stake - to take that attitude there.
Other than Oshawa, Durham has never had any other VIA service, so why would they perceive a huge downgrade?
And if stations get added, a huge chunk of Durham actually sees door-to-door travel times go down. Of course, the folks who live/work near Oshawa would see some degradation.
VIA is too fragile an institution for any of its services to accept erosion in service standards. Some trade offs are inevitable with HFR, but making do with less has far too often been the attitude towards VIA for decades and it can’t ever be encouraged or accepted as a workable solution. Slower trains win’t sell tickets, either.
There's no squaring the circle on this one. For Kingston, Belleville, Cobourg, etc. to get better service, the Lakeshore communities that are in the Toronto shed will have to take a hit.
That said, looking at the rumoured travel times for HFR, it actually might be worthwhile to drive to GTA East (assuming 407 and Donald Cousens) from just about anywhere in Durham, and take HFR. Will still beat travel times from Oshawa today.
Today:
Oshawa-Ottawa - 4 hrs
Oshawa-Montreal 4.5 hrs
HFR:
GTA East-Ottawa - 3 hrs
GTA East-Montreal - 4 hrs
Oshawa-GTA East - 30 mins