Richmond Hill Yonge Line 1 North Subway Extension | ?m | ?s | Metrolinx

WislaHD said:
There has been a lot of property movement happening along the Yonge corridor between Meadowview Ave and Centre Street over the past 24 months. Developers are aiming to pack the corridor with density, make no mistake about it.

But more relevant in my opinion is that the current low-rise residential neighbourhood of Thornhill essentially mirrors Summer Hill, Deer Park, Davisville, North Toronto in built-form and density, and all those places provide significant walk-in traffic to the system. Thornhill isn't a suburb in the conventional sense, and there is no reason to think that ridership wouldn't reflect that.

Actually it wouldn't surprise me if a significant share of the current Finch ridership originates from Thornhill.
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My response will be kind of mixed:

Yes that low-rise residential doesn't automatically mean low transit ridership; there are some examples to the contrary. One is Drewry avenue, west of Yonge and running half-way between Finch and Steeles. All low-rise residential, but the TTC #125 bus leaves Finch Stn full in the pm rush, and gets 2/3 empty by the time it reaches Drewry & Bathurst. Other examples are the #29 Dufferin - extremely busy, and #63 Oakwood / Ossington - fairly busy, both operating through mostly low-rise areas.

But I don't believe current transit ridership in Thornhill is very high, except along the Yonge VIVA corridor. YRT buses like # 2, 5, 77 were normally less than half full, and often less than 1/4 full, even pre-covid. Some people drive to Finch Stn and park there, but that number can't be too high, because the number of parking spots is limited and that number needs to be divided by the duration of 3 morning rush hours to get the hourly count.

Finch Stn counts are driven mainly by 5 super-feeders: VIVA Blue, #39 Finch E, #36 Finch W, #60 Steeles W, #53 Steeles E, with some help from #42 Cummer and #125 Drewry, and of course some walk-ins. That doesn't leave much room for the Thornhill share; VIVA and the TTC Steeles buses touch Thornhill just for a portion of their routes, and Finch / Cummer / Drewry don't touch it at all.

Future developments in Thornhill: they are very impressive and will surely add to the count, but not to the point of taking up more than half of Yonge line's capacity for the demand coming from north of Steeles. Therefore, nothing wrong if TTC turns back every 2-nd Yonge train at Steeles during the rush hours.
 
Rainforest said:
My response will be kind of mixed:

Yes that low-rise residential doesn't automatically mean low transit ridership; there are some examples to the contrary. One is Drewry avenue, west of Yonge and running half-way between Finch and Steeles. All low-rise residential, but the TTC #125 bus leaves Finch Stn full in the pm rush, and gets 2/3 empty by the time it reaches Drewry & Bathurst. Other examples are the #29 Dufferin - extremely busy, and #63 Oakwood / Ossington - fairly busy, both operating through mostly low-rise areas.

But I don't believe current transit ridership in Thornhill is very high, except along the Yonge VIVA corridor. YRT buses like # 2, 5, 77 were normally less than half full, and often less than 1/4 full, even pre-covid. Some people drive to Finch Stn and park there, but that number can't be too high, because the number of parking spots is limited and that number needs to be divided by the duration of 3 morning rush hours to get the hourly count.

Finch Stn counts are driven mainly by 5 super-feeders: VIVA Blue, #39 Finch E, #36 Finch W, #60 Steeles W, #53 Steeles E, with some help from #42 Cummer and #125 Drewry, and of course some walk-ins. That doesn't leave much room for the Thornhill share; VIVA and the TTC Steeles buses touch Thornhill just for a portion of their routes, and Finch / Cummer / Drewry don't touch it at all.

Future developments in Thornhill: they are very impressive and will surely add to the count, but not to the point of taking up more than half of Yonge line's capacity for the demand coming from north of Steeles. Therefore, nothing wrong if TTC turns back every 2-nd Yonge train at Steeles during the rush hours.
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Its really a question of service. Is lack of transit ridership a given with the area, or is it a combination of A) Poor Frequencies alongside B) Having to pay a double fare despite living so close to the Toronto border. Brampton has shown how much increasing frequencies on major bus routes can dramatically increase the ridership of your bus routes, and if the frequency upgrades proposed to happen by the time the YNSE opens do occur, its not hard to imagine Transit Ridership getting significantly higher by the time this extension opens.
 
ARG1 said:
Its really a question of service. Is lack of transit ridership a given with the area, or is it a combination of A) Poor Frequencies alongside B) Having to pay a double fare despite living so close to the Toronto border. Brampton has shown how much increasing frequencies on major bus routes can dramatically increase the ridership of your bus routes, and if the frequency upgrades proposed to happen by the time the YNSE opens do occur, its not hard to imagine Transit Ridership getting significantly higher by the time this extension opens.
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Chicken and egg problem. Low ridership means low farebox revenue, and YRT can't afford to run more frequent service. Low frequencies means many residents don't want to rely on the bus.

Once the subway extension opens, YRT technically can (and should) enhance the feeder routes leading to the subway stations. But then they need to stomack the increase in service disparity. Buses #2, 3, 5, 77, 86, 87, that feed into the new stations, get much more frequent service. The rest of the local routes stay at today's hardly-usable level. No way YRT can afford a frequency increase across the whole system.
 
Rainforest said:
But I don't believe current transit ridership in Thornhill is very high, except along the Yonge VIVA corridor. YRT buses like # 2, 5, 77 were normally less than half full, and often less than 1/4 full, even pre-covid. Some people drive to Finch Stn and park there, but that number can't be too high, because the number of parking spots is limited and that number needs to be divided by the duration of 3 morning rush hours to get the hourly count.... VIVA and the TTC Steeles buses touch Thornhill just for a portion of their routes, and Finch / Cummer / Drewry don't touch it at all.
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I haven't looked at in a while but there is data in the Transportation Tomorrow Survey that would quantify some of this. But (and I'm sure I've made this point before), I think you're missing something by not not correlating the points you made above. Namely: the 53 and 60 buses might just barely touch Thornhill but the fare wall distorts travel patterns. Someone who lives relatively close to Steeles (which could be anywhere south of 7, depending on the person and their situation) would avoid YRT (driving its ridership down) and take TTC (driving its ridership up), in order to avoid the double fare. One might bike to Steeles and get on the 53 or 60 or one might even drive to Finch but either way, it's definitely taking some people off YRT buses and the Steeles buses (obviously not Drewry and Finch) definitely pick up would-be YRT riders. I can't quantify it, but it's definitely there.

Rainforest said:
Future developments in Thornhill: they are very impressive and will surely add to the count, but not to the point of taking up more than half of Yonge line's capacity for the demand coming from north of Steeles. Therefore, nothing wrong if TTC turns back every 2-nd Yonge train at Steeles during the rush hours.
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This may be true but I wouldn't concede the point 10 years out. Who knows what commuting will look like, what kind of development will be going on etc. There was talking of doing this in Vaughan, where it likely makes more sense than on Yonge, and I don't think it ever happened. I'd be open to kicking around the idea but I doubt it'll happen.
 
TJ O'Pootertoot said:
I haven't looked at in a while but there is data in the Transportation Tomorrow Survey that would quantify some of this. But (and I'm sure I've made this point before), I think you're missing something by not not correlating the points you made above. Namely: the 53 and 60 buses might just barely touch Thornhill but the fare wall distorts travel patterns. Someone who lives relatively close to Steeles (which could be anywhere south of 7, depending on the person and their situation) would avoid YRT (driving its ridership down) and take TTC (driving its ridership up), in order to avoid the double fare. One might bike to Steeles and get on the 53 or 60 or one might even drive to Finch but either way, it's definitely taking some people off YRT buses and the Steeles buses (obviously not Drewry and Finch) definitely pick up would-be YRT riders. I can't quantify it, but it's definitely there.
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That pattern definitely occurs. Say, Clark Ave may be the closest bus route for someone living just north of the rail line, but they can get both a more frequent service and the elimination of double fare if they walk extra 5 min to Steeles.

Should be noted that the double fare thing won't go away just because of the subway extension. If Metrolinx transforms the whole fare system to some kind of zone model, then the large difference in fares might disappear.

TJ O'Pootertoot said:
This may be true but I wouldn't concede the point 10 years out. Who knows what commuting will look like, what kind of development will be going on etc. There was talking of doing this in Vaughan, where it likely makes more sense than on Yonge, and I don't think it ever happened. I'd be open to kicking around the idea but I doubt it'll happen.
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I'm surprised they don't short-turn trains on the Vaughan branch. Maybe, they short-turn further south? Glencairn, or Sheppard West?
 
Do you guys think that Cummer or Royal Orchard Stations will ever be built?

And will Viva Blue continue to run from Steeles to Richmond Hill Centre or do you think that Viva Blue will no longer run in that section?
 
steviej1 said:
Do you guys think that Cummer or Royal Orchard Stations will ever be built?

And will Viva Blue continue to run from Steeles to Richmond Hill Centre or do you think that Viva Blue will no longer run in that section?
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Well THE PLAN was to terminate Viva Blue at RHC when the Subway extension opens, but that might change now that the amount of stops are reduced (yet with Clark being chosen as the stop of choice, its probably unlikely).

As for the rest of the stations, whether or not they get built is solely based off whether or not the municipal governments can find a funding injection of some sort to be able to build those stations. Worst case scenerio they'll probably leave room for some infill stations, and they can be built later if needed.
 
steviej1 said:
Do you guys think that Cummer or Royal Orchard Stations will ever be built?

And will Viva Blue continue to run from Steeles to Richmond Hill Centre or do you think that Viva Blue will no longer run in that section?
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Pretty sure that Viva will not operate south of Richmond Hill Centre (that would be a very expensive way to provide local service). Hopefully, local service along that segment of Yonge will be enhanced. Either a 99a branch just between Steeles and RHC, or some re-routing of the #3, 5, 77 buses that benefits Yonge.

I would hope that the Cummer station is either added to the project at the last moment, or provisions are made to add it later. The spot is close to the Finch Stn tail tracks, which aren't very deep at that point. The former Food Basic parking lot would be a perfect location for that station, but they are building something there right now and I'm not sure how much space will be left afterwards.

Royal Orchard seems very unlikely. Once the line is in service, there has to be a very compelling reason to resume any kind of construction.Royal Orchard with its low projected ridership won't cut it.
 
Time will tell on Viva - there was a plan to have a route running along Clark and the addition of Clark station makes that more likely, not less.
As for service along Yonge? I dunno.

My guess it that whatever alingment they end up locking-in, it will be one that allows for future infill stations. Whether they come in the years before the extension is built or a few years after or never... hard to say. I think there's value in opening as-is and then seeing whether there's demand to add Cummer and Royal Orchard. Maybe they'll both make sense one day or maybe some government will pony up the cash but I think both are pretty iffy right now. Still, I like the idea of picking an alignment that allows them to be built at such time as they are needed.
 
TJ O'Pootertoot said:
Time will tell on Viva - there was a plan to have a route running along Clark and the addition of Clark station makes that more likely, not less.
As for service along Yonge? I dunno.
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A branch of Viva Orange running along Clark and terminating at the Clark Stn is possible.

But any Viva route running along Yonge and duplicating the subway, not a chance. The ridership will be way too low to justify express service, as all long-haul riders will transfer to the subway at Richmond Hill Centre. And for the local service, enhanced local routes will make a lot more sense because they will serve all stops.
 
Rainforest said:
A branch of Viva Orange running along Clark and terminating at the Clark Stn is possible.

But any Viva route running along Yonge and duplicating the subway, not a chance. The ridership will be way too low to justify express service, as all long-haul riders will transfer to the subway at Richmond Hill Centre. And for the local service, enhanced local routes will make a lot more sense because they will serve all stops.
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With Clark confirmed as a station now, yes you're right, however in the event that Clark wasn't chosen, and instead Cummer was chosen, there was a pretty decent chance that Viva Blue would not have been cancelled south of RHC. Obviously this isn't something to really be concerned about anymore.
 
the only way i see viva blue being cut south of rhc would be if significant fare integration has been implemented. I have yet to see anything of that sort so i doubt that will happen. they can just run fewer buses south of rhc
 
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