Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[Northern Light]

I do understand the list of things required for the SSE, but one question about one item. Why is ATC required for the SSE? Couldn't they just run trains (aside from the fact they need more), without it? What's the technical explanation?

The desire is to convert all of Line 2 to ATC. That's in the TTC capital plan.

Cost assumptions for the SSE assume only ATC signalling; not putting old school block signalling in and later paying to replace it w/ATC.

But if the extension is ATC then the rolling stock must have ATC as well. The existing Line 2 rolling stock (T1s) do not have ATC on board.

This means either replacement rolling stock OR a retrofit. Currently the budget shows plans for a life extension for the T1s instead of new rollingstock, but does not appear to have money for an ATC retrofit.

This seems rather contradictory and at cross-purposes to other budget items.

Further, the current plan is for the Relief Line rolling stock to use ATC and to navigate their way to Greenwood via Line 2; that requires that section of Line 2 to have ATC.

You see where this all gets rather messy!

Steve Munro discusses this in some detail, here:

TTC 2019 Fleet and Capacity Plans Part I: Subway (Updated)

Note: At the time of publication (Noon on Monday, March 18, 2019), I await a response from the TTC to several questions on issues raised in this article. When the responses arrive, I will update th…

stevemunro.ca

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I wonder how much it would cost to install the old school signalling system on SSE, in addition to ATO. Any educated guesses?

 

[nfitz]

Until its built there's always a chance I guess as nothing is absolute but one thing I doubt Ford wont get cold feet on is building subway infrastructure

Given all the lies Doug Ford made during the election campaign (not one job will be lost!), I would not be surprised if he was lying about uploading the subway and building extensions.

I suppose it's possible that he was lying about uploading the subway, and will let it go ahead with no further financial commitments from the province. And I wouldn't be surprised if he let's the DRL go ahead if someone else pays for it.

But it seems very unlikely to me that Ford will be keeping all his promises on this issue. And if I'm wrong, and he does, it will surely delay the planned 2026 opening (not to mention 2029 for the DRL).

 

[TheTigerMaster]

but one thing I doubt Ford wont get cold feet on is building subway infrastructure.

Respectfully, I think a lot of people are confusing Ford's pro-car (anti-LRT) rhetoric with pro-subway rhetoric. Seems to me that Ford's pro-subway rhetoric has more to do with him not wanting LRT's on street than anything.

 

[OneCity]

Given all the lies Doug Ford made during the election campaign (not one job will be lost!), I would not be surprised if he was lying about uploading the subway and building extensions.

I suppose it's possible that he was lying about uploading the subway, and will let it go ahead with no further financial commitments from the province. And I wouldn't be surprised if he let's the DRL go ahead if someone else pays for it.

But it seems very unlikely to me that Ford will be keeping all his promises on this issue. And if I'm wrong, and he does, it will surely delay the planned 2026 opening (not to mention 2029 for the DRL).

Reasonable to doubt. But I believe you are mixing the politics of union busting with politics that benefits their private sector partners. This administration really wants the subways (DRL, Sheppard, and Yonge)almost as much as they wanted certain private aspects of cannabis (kinda joking... but not really). And the residents who live in these areas also heavily support these lines. I have many doubts and concerns about this administration but little doubt certain types of infrastructure will be proceeding.

Respectfully, I think a lot of people are confusing Ford's pro-car (anti-LRT) rhetoric with pro-subway rhetoric. Seems to me that Ford's pro-subway rhetoric has more to do with him not wanting LRT's on street than anything.

Certainly. But for this line that train has long left the station and don't forget it was also about very poorly placed transfers on Sheppard and RT with the slogan "Transfer City" His brother was willing to connect LRT seamless to SCC so long as Sheppard was a subway. I cant see any reason whatsoever to go back with what's at stake politically, privately with new investment coming to the table and publicly to replace the RT and add stops for both residents and developers

 

[nfitz]

This administration really wants the subways ...

I don't doubt that! I just doubt they are willing to commit significant dollars. Some dollars, sure. But I can't believe they won't be trying to finance most of it through private money, federal money, and City of Toronto taxpayer money - rather than the 100% provincial funding that's been done on Line 5 and 6 (well there's some federal money now on Line 6, moved from Sheppard West ...).

I fundamentally don't believe that they understand how limited private funding will be, how limited the city finances are, and how even much they are taking on if they upload the subway.

 

[Kyle Campbell]

The TTC is struggling to keep the old Mark Ones afloat. They've done some refurb/life extension work......but they don't have more than 8 years left. As such if they don't get moving on SSE they will need an alternate strategy, soon.

Referenced by Steve Munro in this post: https://stevemunro.ca/category/vehicles/subway-cars/

Is the alternate strategy called a bus? I suppose they could try to pick up some old Mark Is from Translink to keep things going for a bit. They are a bit newer than the TTC ones

 

[Kyle Campbell]

Are

I don't doubt that! I just doubt they are willing to commit significant dollars. Some dollars, sure. But I can't believe they won't be trying to finance most of it through private money, federal money, and City of Toronto taxpayer money - rather than the 100% provincial funding that's been done on Line 5 and 6 (well there's some federal money now on Line 6, moved from Sheppard West ...).

I fundamentally don't believe that they understand how limited private funding will be, how limited the city finances are, and how even much they are taking on if they upload the subway.

P3s with the 33% split between province, city, and city are pretty common though, it's pretty much how all other Canadian cities build their major projects. The gotcha is that in the long run you actually spend more money, but politicians love it because a) it involves the private sector b) you end up paying less right now and c) those extra costs only come home to roost long after the politicians are out of power

 

[jcam]

If the province is making Woodbine pay for their station, and they are likely asking First Gulf to pay for their GO station...if the province takes ownership of the subway, do you think they will similarly as First Gulf to pay for the subway station, and Oxford to pay for Scarborough Centre station? The recent cover story article on Oxford's plans for their lands show just how valuable that station is to them.

 

[OneCity]

If the province is making Woodbine pay for their station, and they are likely asking First Gulf to pay for their GO station...if the province takes ownership of the subway, do you think they will similarly as First Gulf to pay for the subway station, and Oxford to pay for Scarborough Centre station? The recent cover story article on Oxford's plans for their lands show just how valuable that station is to them.

Exactly where the gun is being pointed by the Conservatives. A lot of focus from coverage was based upon Lawrence and Sheppard not being able paying for themselves thru air rights and whether intentional or not they have completely skimmed over where the bulk of the private revenue will be coming from.

This negotiation should have been done under the Liberals but certainly not too late. If anything Oxford and partners have put in a lot of work to date to lose out on this massive windfall opportunity and will be ready to negotiate a win-win amount. They don't need pay for the SCC station really as that's funded for the most part but they need to help fill some of the gaps in adding back in Lawrence and Sheppard for the greater public good.

 

[nfitz]

If the province is making Woodbine pay for their station, and they are likely asking First Gulf to pay for their GO station...

Conservatives asking developers to pay for stations seems unlikely.

More likely they would want to impose some taxation scheme that whoever purchases the units from the developer will be paying out for decades to come. Which is going to take a long time (if ever) to implement, and will rule out most new GO stations - such as Lawrence East.

 

[rbt]

I wonder how much it would cost to install the old school signalling system on SSE, in addition to ATO. Any educated guesses?

We can ignore the legacy portion and just cost out the conversion to ATC by taking the estimate to convert BD ($350M? *) for 25.2.km and adding the 6.2km extension to that.

So probably between $60M and $90M.

I believe a non-trivial portion of the ATC installation cost is for replacement bus service during the shutdowns.

* Anyone have a recent source for that cost? I went from memory as I kept finding Line 1 numbers which include control room and other common changes.

 

[nfitz]

... the conversion to ATC by taking the estimate to convert BD ($350M? *)
* Anyone have a recent source for that cost? I went from memory as I kept finding Line 1 numbers which include control room and other common changes.

In the most recent budget, the (unfunded) amount for Line 2 ATC is $432 million, with spending starting in 2022.

But that seems very low, given the Line 1 amount from 2017-2022 alone is $661, and work started back in 2009 or so!

I'm not sure simply adding one more station would cost as much as the per km rate, given how few cross-overs and stations there are. Hopefully they even have some existing equipment that's been removed from Line 1.

Perhaps someone can dig out the 1-stop extension costs for signalling the 2-km to Downsview station back in the 1990s, escalate it, and multiply by 3 to account for the length. That should be ballpark.

 

[Allandale25]

^ So again, if the TTC doesn't get the $432 million for Line 2 ATC then that could seriously impact the SSE being delivered? When is signification SSE construction suppose to start? How close is that to 2022? When would the ATC contract need to be signed for ATC to start being installed in 2022?

 

[nfitz]

I don't see how it's a real issue. They are years away to the decision point about whether they need to include to put in the old signalling system as well, and even $100 million is a rounding error on the $3.2 billion budget (a number that is rumoured to be increasing significantly for other reasons).