It's difficult to say what would happen in a world without incentives. We will unfortunately never know because the US federal and state governments are also providing incentives for battery plants, which ultimately forced Canada's hand to offer incentives as well. I know there is a lot of discourse and opinions on whether or not these incentives are worth it, but I personally think they are, given the alternative of losing the automotive industry and associated industrial capacity/labour talent in Canada.
Canada does have a number of strengths competitively in the absence of incentives, however - electricity prices are cheaper (on average) than in the US, electricity is highly green and reliable with baseload hydro/nuclear (at least in Ontario/Quebec), existing presence of automotive manufacturing with associated experienced labour force, and the presence of large Critical Battery Mineral deposits in Canada. It makes sense to be located here if you want to keep the entire supply chain for battery production within a single country, which has been shown to be beneficial post-COVID.