Toronto Ontario Line 3 | ?m | ?s | Metrolinx

[Midtown Urbanist]

Fair enough. But it can terminate then at Bathurst/King with an intermediate station at Spadina/King. Perhaps if they do end up with a major SmartTrack station at Atlantic/King as proposed, you end there - though I don't find the King streetcar a problem from Atlantic to Bathurst.

Agreed. I hope even if the eventual Relief Line West to Sunnyside or Dundas West is well off in the future, we begin planning to Bathurst and King(/or whatever) immediately after approving the line to Sheppard-Don Mills.

That way, we will have the EA completed and approved, and should additional funds become available, we could proceed with that project immediately.

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

I am skeptical that the DRL has a case north of Bloor/Danforth. Let alone nort of Eglinton. Smart Track will move a lot of that ridership from the East. It'll be diverted before Don Mills.

I should caveat that by saying that doesn't mean no northern extension at all. Just that Smart Track can forestall the northern extension for a little while. Perhaps we can now focus on building both the eastern and western stretch of the DRL south of Danforth.

Not at all.

SmartTrack does very little to relieve the bus routes heading to Yonge Street on Lawrence, York Mills and Sheppard. If we have extended the Relief Line to Eglinton, then there is no reason to not relieve the Yonge line even further by extending to Sheppard. (or even Finch)

And it is not just about providing relief to the Yonge line. It is also about reducing commuter times of people in Scarborough and North York who commute by bus to the subway between 25 to 40%.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Even at 5 min frequencies ST will only divert 17% of Yonge ridership in 2031. The new U of T transit model has an even greater percentage of usage on the Yonge line in 2031 than previously forecast and that includes signal and fleet upgrades. Basically, ST will marginally mitigate Yonge line overcrowding and in a very short term sense as well. Simply put, DRL Long is the only way to adequately reduce capacity issues over the long term.

And that if and only if ST has 5 min frequencies, 22 stations , which seems to be impossible. Keesmaat has said that ST ridership projections are highly sensitive to changes in frequency. We're not going to see ST divert 17% of people away from Yonge.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Not at all.

SmartTrack does very little to relieve the bus routes heading to Yonge Street on Lawrence, York Mills and Sheppard. If we have extended the Relief Line to Eglinton, then there is no reason to not relieve the Yonge line even further by extending to Sheppard. (or even Finch)

And it is not just about providing relief to the Yonge line. It is also about reducing commuter times of people in Scarborough and North York who commute by bus to the subway between 25 to 40%.

Reductions in commute times up to 50% in Scarborough.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

And that if and only if ST has 5 min frequencies, 22 stations , which seems to be impossible. Keesmaat has said that ST ridership projections are highly sensitive to changes in frequency. We're not going to see ST divert 17% of people away from Yonge.

Oh, and if we take a look at City Planning's latest Yonge ridership estimations, they show the line having 20% greater ridership than previously anticipated. That indicates that Relief Line to Danforth may no longer be adequate relief, so it might have to go to Eglinton.

 

[kEiThZ]

Not at all.

SmartTrack does very little to relieve the bus routes heading to Yonge Street on Lawrence, York Mills and Sheppard. If we have extended the Relief Line to Eglinton, then there is no reason to not relieve the Yonge line even further by extending to Sheppard. (or even Finch)

And it is not just about providing relief to the Yonge line. It is also about reducing commuter times of people in Scarborough and North York who commute by bus to the subway between 25 to 40%.

If you're east of the 404, Smart Track is effectively as good as the DRL. I fail to see how it would not provide relief to Lawrence, Ellesemere/York Mills and Sheppard. Why would anybody who is downtown bound stay on the bus till Yonge, and bypass the Smart Track station?

As for reducing commuter times, it's a tradeoff here, Smart Track does much more for Scarborough than it does for North York. Everybody east of the 404 will have an easy connection to Smart Track and then a shorter commute downtown. West of the 404, most of those riders would probably still continue to Yonge. But, if you're west of the 404, it's not taking 1.5-2 hrs to get downtown today like it is for a good chunk of northern Scarborough. Smart Track, I reckon, would cut nearly 30 minutes off their commutes. Simply by intercepting a downtown bound rail line earlier. Fewer stops south of Danforth also helps. The DRL is far enough west that there would still be some long bus rides to intercept it for most users from Scarborough.

Smart Track admittedly is much better for Scarborough than it is for North York. And the DRL will be much better for North York than it would be for northern Scarborough.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

If you're east of the 404, Smart Track is effectively as good as the DRL. I fail to see how it would not provide relief to Lawrence, Ellesemere/York Mills and Sheppard. Why would anybody who is downtown bound stay on the bus till Yonge, and bypass the Smart Track station?

As for reducing commuter times, it's a tradeoff here, Smart Track does much more for Scarborough than it does for North York. Everybody east of the 404 will have an easy connection to Smart Track and then a shorter commute downtown. West of the 404, most of those riders would probably still continue to Yonge. But, if you're west of the 404, it's not taking 1.5-2 hrs to get downtown today like it is for a good chunk of northern Scarborough. Smart Track, I reckon, would cut nearly 30 minutes off their commutes. Simply by intercepting a downtown bound rail line earlier. Fewer stops south of Danforth also helps. The DRL is far enough west that there would still be some long bus rides to intercept it for most users from Scarborough.

Smart Track admittedly is much better for Scarborough than it is for North York. And the DRL will be much better for North York than it would be for northern Scarborough.

Again, you're making the enormous assumption that ST will be built as Tory described it his campaign, which it almost certainly won't.

 

[kEiThZ]

The thing is, ST won't be finished for at last another 10 years, maybe 15, so, by the time it is complete, it is not buying us any time. People think that building SmartTrack will be quick because it's not underground. There is a lot of work that will be required along that corridor, and looking at the speed of Metrolinx, I wouldn't be too optimistic when looking at timelines.

Indeed. And that's the one flaw. High dependency on Metrolinx RER work. But I think their 2026 estimate is sincere. This could mean DRL Phase 1 in ~ 2030.

The one issue with the DRL is that despite all the excitement over it, nobody in any official capacity is really talking about taking it up to Sheppard or Finch by 2030. In the interim then, Smart Track becomes a decent temporary reliever.

 

[kEiThZ]

Again, you're making the enormous assumption that ST will be built as Tory described it his campaign, which it almost certainly won't.

And you're assuming (like a lot of ST critics) that Metrolinx and Tory will never find common ground to get this off the ground. I'm a little more optimistic.

If it's built, I think we'll see a higher frequency than what Tory promised. In no small part because higher frequency on ST really allows Metrolinx to minimize the number of RER stations inside the 416 and thus to keep speeds up and costs down for the RER.

 

[44 North]

If you're east of the 404, Smart Track is effectively as good as the DRL. I fail to see how it would not provide relief to Lawrence, Ellesemere/York Mills and Sheppard. Why would anybody who is downtown bound stay on the bus till Yonge, and bypass the Smart Track station?

As for reducing commuter times, it's a tradeoff here, Smart Track does much more for Scarborough than it does for North York. Everybody east of the 404 will have an easy connection to Smart Track and then a shorter commute downtown. West of the 404, most of those riders would probably still continue to Yonge. But, if you're west of the 404, it's not taking 1.5-2 hrs to get downtown today like it is for a good chunk of northern Scarborough. Smart Track, I reckon, would cut nearly 30 minutes off their commutes. Simply by intercepting a downtown bound rail line earlier. Fewer stops south of Danforth also helps. The DRL is far enough west that there would still be some long bus rides to intercept it for most users from Scarborough.

Smart Track admittedly is much better for Scarborough than it is for North York. And the DRL will be much better for North York than it would be for northern Scarborough.

There would be some overlap in these general catchments, but I don't think the dividing line would be the DVP/404. For downtown-bound riders, I think a DRL Long's attractiveness would spread well east of the 404 to Warden. The reason for this is that few downtown-bound riders in that area would want to travel east to ST if their destination is west (or southwest). It'd be more logical for them to take surface transit west to Don Mills, then head south on this Relief Line.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

There would be some overlap in these general catchments, but I don't think the dividing line would be the DVP/404. For downtown-bound riders, I think a DRL Long's attractiveness would spread well east of the 404 to Warden. The reason for this is that few downtown-bound riders in that area would want to travel east to ST if their destination is west (or southwest). It'd be more logical for them to take surface transit west to Don Mills, then head south on this Relief Line.

Additionally, when you consider that ST's downtown catchment area is essentially part of the Financial District. I really doubt that many people will want to make the hellish Union transfer onto Line 1, unless SmartTrack offers significant and consistent time savings over other options. Of course, backtracking east to head west will eliminate any time savings in most cases.

The relieflinealliance.ca gives us an idea how how significant back tracking affects the time savings. From Warden and Eglinton, which is only about 2 km west of Kennedy (guesstimating), it's 15 minutes faster to take the Relief Line, even though the RL is more than 2.5x times the distance the Line 2 subway is from Warden and Eglinton. As we can see, the geographical range where it is faster to backtrack to the SSE, rather than continue to RL, must be very small, perhaps less than 1 km.

Sure, ST might have higher speeds, but frequencies will also be significantly lower, even in the best case scenario. I wouldn't expect ST to be more effective for backtrackers than the SSE is.

 

[kEiThZ]

There would be some overlap in these general catchments, but I don't think the dividing line would be the DVP/404. For downtown-bound riders, I think a DRL Long's attractiveness would spread well east of the 404 to Warden. The reason for this is that few downtown-bound riders in that area would want to travel east to ST if their destination is west (or southwest). It'd be more logical for them to take surface transit west to Don Mills, then head south on this Relief Line.

I find this hard to believe. Warden-Agincourt: 2.3 km. Warden-Don Mills: 4km. Warden-Agincourt is counter-peak for traffic too. So the bus ride will be faster in that direction. At that point, it comes down to frequency and destination. If you're bound anywhere near the financial district, ST. If you're bound for say Museum station. DRL. As for frequency, if they achieve 5 minutes, it really won't make much of a difference if the DRL Long is every 2 mins. The gain is marginal. All this is only looking at places east of Warden.

From all of northern Scarborough, ST becomes a no-brainer. If they achieve anything less than 10 min frequencies. Because that's how long it takes to get from the Stouffville corridor to Don Mills. In rush hour? More like 15-20 minutes.

And all of that is before we consider how far north they'll extend the DRL. If I'm on Finch or Steeles (both very heavy bus routes), the plan that helps is the one that intercepts that avenue. DRL won't help much (relative to ST) if the bus I'm on has to travel south to intercept it.

 

[kEiThZ]

The relieflinealliance.ca gives us an idea how how significant back tracking affects the time savings. From Warden and Eglinton, which is only about 2 km west of Kennedy (guesstimating), it's 15 minutes faster to take the Relief Line, even though the RL is more than 2.5x times the distance the Line 2 subway is from Warden and Eglinton. As we can see, the geographical range where it is faster to backtrack to the SSE, rather than continue to RL, must be very small, perhaps less than 1 km.

15 mins vs. Line 2. Not against ST. With Eglinton LRT, it'll be 4 stops to Kennedy vs. 6 stops to Don Mills. So again, it comes down to where you're going. Financial district? Smart Track. North of the Financial District? DRL. And even this comes down to which alignment the DRL takes. The more north the DRL (say Queen instead of King), the more sense it makes to take Smart Track instead.

Sure, ST might have higher speeds, but frequencies will also be significantly lower, even in the best case scenario. I wouldn't expect ST to be more effective for backtrackers than the SSE is.

The biggest thing ST has going for it, is the ability to leverage the RER work to build a longer line. The first phase of the DRL will be University to Eglinton. And that's optimistic. It's going to take another decade for the DRL's northeast and westerly extensions to kick in. I see Smart Track as an interim line. Not necessarily as competition to the DRL. It's complimentary and let's most of the inner suburbs have something for downtown bound trips while we take 20 years to build the whole DRL.

 

[W. K. Lis]

If they add HOV lanes for buses and taxis on the 400 and Black Creek Drive, from Steeles down to Mt. Dennis Station and transit hub, they'll be able to feed both the SmartTrack and Eglinton Crosstown LRT at Eglinton Avenue West.

 

[nfitz]

I find this hard to believe. Warden-Agincourt: 2.3 km. Warden-Don Mills: 4km.

I'm getting 3.2 km from Warden to Don Mills on Sheppard (and 2.1 to Agincourt).

The key issue I'd think is, does one work near the SmartTrack station south of Esplanade, or does one work near the DRL station at (wherever it gets built).

As for frequency, if they achieve 5 minutes, it really won't make much of a difference if the DRL Long is every 2 mins.

IF they achieve 5 minuets; the HDR report was very clear that anything less than 15 minutes, is pretty much going to require 2 dedicated tracks, so at that point it's effectively a subway line; which means they'll need 4 tracks along the Stouffville branch, and 6 along the Lakeshore East branch. Which just doesn't sound feasible (or quick).

Unless GO is ready to announce it will terminate the Stouffville GO service, and terminate much of the Lakeshore East service at, say Scarborough GO, I don't see it's realistic to assume a 5-minute service, and rather one must assume a 15-minute service.