Remember. I am an Ottawan, born Ottawa. Sure, the LRT is teething problems. But that's irrelevant to this topic; properly built LRTs are good.
2007: Ottawa's light rail deal dead for good
Guess what?
In late 2008,
in a stimulus-minded move, Ottawa
resurrected an EXPANDED LRT plan. (City Council,
November 28, 2008)
I think that my BAT network prediction is
more likely to become true.
Based on the playbook of other cities I'm witnessing -- my current (refined) prediction is now BAT will be funded all at once.
Resurrect+Expand Scenario With LRT in Eight Wards
1. COVID-19 and Ford indecision delay any concrete decisions to Election 2022 season. We'll be vaccinated by then, Canada will have suffered a recession, transit use will recover, and seeking economic stimulus opportunities, allowing us to focus on LRT.
2. The existing unmodified Hamilton LRT plan will be modified. It's not going to be resurrected verbatim without modifications.
3. Replacement LRT plan will use multiple level government funding.
4. Replacement LRT plan will touch more Hamilton wards.
5. If LRT option is chosen, requirement of a new total budget number other than old budget numbers ($1B) necessitiates shrinkages or expandage.
6. Therefore old 2015 Hamilton LRT plan will be "scrapped" and then "resurrected" with an adjusted route.
7. Adjusted route will expands to non-lower-city wards.
8. Expandage is more likely than shrinkage, if plan remains as an LRT.
9. Expandage needs to touch at least 6 wards, preferably 7 (Perhaps +Dundas), to get more city council favour.
10. Construction start after ~2022, completion around ~2031.
After a potential favourable election 2022 outcome, any resurrected Hamilton LRT, will probably look approximately like what I suggested a few years ago:
(With 1-stop B-Line extension east towards west edge of Dundas, and perhaps 1-stop northward extension of B-Line to Confederation GO).
This then means
LRT touches 8 wards instead of 5.
Wards 14,1,2,3,4,5,8,13
Ward 14: One-stop westwards extension of B-Line east to east end of Dundas
Ward 1: Existing B-Line
Ward 2: Existing B-Line
Ward 3: Existing B-Line
Ward 4: Existing B-Line
Ward 5: Existing B-Line
Ward 8: New A+T Hybrid
Ward 13: New A+T Hybrid
In this new expanded LRT plan, the LRT touches a majority of Hamilton wards (8 out of 15).
This may help get enough council votes to enable multilevel funding.
I even daresay local funding (municipal bonds, etc) can be a go-ahead if enough local wards are touched by an expanded plan.
Possibly $3B capital at $1B+$1B+$1B (or a 20%:40%:40%) 3-level funding arrangement.
BRTs/expresses will still happen, perhaps concurrently -- but this might be the LRT-resurrection portion of whatever transit politics may entail.
...Assuming a more progressive City Council elected in Election 2022.
