Robust number for overall Canadian Housing

[andrejeffry]

As good as GTA June number, it's nowhere as impressive as the numbers from the west.

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/665245

By now, we all should be scratching our head on how persistence Canadian market is,

You can point to all the reasons: low interest rates or pent-up demand, but I think the most important one you have to point is that how confident Canadians are about their country economy and their own well being. Bottom line is, it doesn't matter how low the interest rate is, if you don't have any confidence on your own situation, you're not gonna jump into the housing market

 

[Eug]

It will be interesting to see the numbers (as in unit sales and average and median pricing) in fall 2009 and fall 2010.

Fall sales are usually slower than late spring early summer, but this year fall will have higher interest rates than late spring, and rates will likely go up again next year.

Fundamentally though I agree. The real estate market has held up remarkably well in Canada, and much better than I would have expected, even with the low interest rates.

 

[Eug]

Fundamentally though I agree. The real estate market has held up remarkably well in Canada, and much better than I would have expected, even with the low interest rates.

Housing rebound 'nothing short of amazing'

"The turnaround in Canadian housing this year might be the single most surprising turnabout we've seen in any economic indicator I can think of," said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. "The fact we saw a little bit of a rebound isn't a total shock, but the extent of it is nothing short of amazing."

 

[BMyers]

Condo numbers from Q2-2009 looking good

NEWS RELEASE

Contact: David Eisenstadt/Beth Merrick
The Communications Group Inc.
416.696.9900 ext. 36 or ext. 40
deisenstadt@tcgpr.com/bmerrick@tcgpr.com





URBANATION SAYS, REBOUNDING TORONTO CONDOMINIUM MARKET SPARKS CAUTIOUS CONFIDENCE FOR Q3/09 AND BEYOND

Q2/09 halts two quarters of negative growth in Toronto Census
Metropolitan Area (CMA) new condominium apartment market

DRAFT –TORONTO, August 4, 2009…Urbanation, Inc., since 1981 the leading source of information and analysis on the Toronto condominium market, today released highlights of its Q2/09 market overview.

Said Ben Myers, Urbanation’s recently-appointed Editor and Executive Vice President, “In line with the Governor of the Bank of Canada’s prediction that the Canadian recession is expected to end some time this year, it appears the recessionary conditions in the CMA condominium market came to an abrupt end in Q2/09.â€.

Sales in the new unit market outperformed even the most bullish predictions, with 2,963 new condominium units sold in Q2/09, a 223 per cent increase over Q1/09’s dismal 917 new units sold.

“Some credit is due to developers’ and brokers’ quick reaction to the recession, reflected in the redesign, re-pricing and re-launching of projects with smaller suites, fewer amenities and lower prices. This resulted in strongly positive purchaser reaction and bodes well for consumer confidence in the CMA for the remainder of 2009 and into 2010,†added Myers.

In Q2/09, there were 2,963 new condominium sales, down 40 per cent from pre-recession Q2/08’s 4,962 sales. Only two new projects (with 396 units) started construction in the second quarter and the City of Toronto workers’ strike imposed further delays. On the plus side, only three projects were pulled from the market, signaling that most developers remain optimistic and committed.

An extremely positive note was struck by the relaxing of the forthcoming Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) on new homes, including condominiums. The HST will now only be applied to any portion of purchase price above $400,000. This eliminates a potential “wall of tax†which would have been imposed at the $400k threshold.

Developers in 2009 creatively revised their suite mixes and pricing “on the fly†bolstering appeal to investors and first time buyers, as opposed to empty nesters and family buyers, with great success. The level of unsold unit supply at the end of Q2/09 fell to its lowest level since Q1/08, to 14,854 units, 9 per cent lower in comparison to Q1/09. Over 15 per cent of the existing inventory from Q1/09 sold in Q2/09, a much higher absorption rate than the previous three quarters.

Said Myers, “The performance of the CMA condominium resale market was most impressive in Q2/09, posting 4,893 sales across the 1,059 resale buildings tracked by Urbanation – a new quarterly record high, topping Q2/07’s 4,615 sales. The uncertainty in the new-construction market may have driven buyers to the more predictable resale market, which will likely outperform the new market this year, due to its ability to adjust prices in a changing market.â€

Urbanation’s forecast for Q3/09 is 2,000 to 3,000 new sales for that quarter, or up to 8,800 new sales for 2009, a 39 per cent drop from 2008, and a 36 per cent decrease from the 10 year average of 13,793 new sales/year. For resales, the forecast is 3,000 to 4,000 resales in Q3/09, or a total of 13,000 resales per year, on par with 2008’s resales, and an improvement over previous forecasts.




ABOUT URBANATION

Urbanation is Canada's leading condominium market research company. Since 1981, Urbanation has analyzed the Toronto condominium market, publishing the “industry bible†– Urbanation’s Condominium Market Survey. This quarterly Report tracks new, resale and future condominium projects. Urbanation also provides the development community with essential consulting services, which include site and topic specific market studies and surveys.

www.urbanation.ca
www.twitter.com/urbanation

 

[urbandreamer]

Is Ben Myers UT's BMyers?