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President Joe Biden's United States of America

Northern Light

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Michigan, even more than Pennsylvania, is the good news story. The Dems now control all three branches of government, and the electorate passed a ballot measure that will guarantee reproductive rights in the State Constitution. Michigan was one of the states likely to have all abortions illegal because of an old 1930s-era law.

I'd be interested to see an analysis of the role that redistricting played in the outcome, as Michiganders approved a non-partisan redistricting commission in a previous ballot initiative to un-do all the gerrymandering.

***

One particular note about Michigan, it appears that Oakland County, long an obstacle to regional transit in Detroit has voted for a millage (property tax charge) to support same. That could be hugely impactful for many Detroit area residents.


Ohio, sadly, has gone the way of Indiana for good.

While electing trumper JD Vance is among many unfortunate decisions taken by Ohio voters last night, I would advise against 'for good' as a take.

Michigan was hopelessly gerrymandered and the state spent a generation under Republican control, and saw 3 generations of rot in Detroit.

Today, Michigan returned Democrats across the board; Detroit is seeing a fair bit of new investment, getting a signature waterfront park, the new bridge, and seeing a downtown highway downsized to a large arterial with considerable public realm improvements, all the while, the Detroit burbs just voted for regional transit.

Hell can freeze over.........Ohio may yet return to civil society.
 

lenaitch

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This is the US. The GOP has a rabid base that will vote for them without thinking.

Voters voted along ideological lines. You could have Ronald McDonald or a half eaten grilled cheese sandwich running for the GOP and they would get tons of votes.

US voters are idiots. They just see blue and red, nothing more.

In terms of registered voters or declared party affiliation US voters historically very roughly trend to one third Red, one third Blue and one third independent. That can, of course, swing a fair bit, but the independent group in recent years was historically higher.

I wouldn't be casting too many stones across the river. We have our fair share of dyed in the wool X or Y voters and regions as well.
 

Admiral Beez

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Really looks like the Dems may hold the Senate via the win in Pennsylvania and the presumptive wins in Georgia and Arizona. If so, it will be a real shock to the GOP as they really felt they could take all three, but now they may win none of them.
The Conservative media is saying this election is a disaster for the GOP. If they couldn't solidly win both chambers of Congress in this economy and against a deeply unpopular POTUS they'll never stand a chance in 2024 unless they make significant changes.

 

Bayer

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I am a bit relieved for my husband, an American with dual citizenship who votes in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania. He was dismayed by the prospect of a Republican landslide, and I was puzzled at how relatively sanguine many Americans are at having what I consider outright traitors running for elected office. The Democrats are continuing to try to work within a system that is being continuously undermined. I don't think this will end well and I am not sure it should.
 

PinkLucy

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And that's the thing. The Republicans colour outside the lines while the Democrats try to working with a broken system. Something has to change.
 

Northern Light

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Ballot measures in the U.S. of note:

Recreational Marijuana legalized in two more states, Missouri and Maryland. Measures to permit same in Arkansas and both Dakotas failed.

Wherever abortion as an issue was on the ballot the pro-choice side won. Several states enshrined abortion rights, including California, Vermont and Michigan. Several states had measures to restrict abortion in
one fashion or another, these all went down to defeat.

Iowa enshrined the right to bear arms in its State Constitution. Which in reality, changes not much at all.

Nebraska approved an increase in the State minimum wage to $15USD per hour by 2026. (let that grab onto you, a $20CAD min. wage with Nebraska's cost of living)....

Nevada seems poised to approve a minimum wage increase to $12USD but that measure's results aren't yet final.

Several States thoughtfully abolished Slavery from their State Constitutions (generally as a permissible punishment for a crime); this, is course, symbolic as the U.S. Federal Constitution expressly prohibits slavery.

Eyebrow raising, however: (from Five-Thirty-Eight)

1668032373659.png


Also, Louisianans voted Against removing slavery as a punishment in their ballot! (though it appears confusion over the wording may have been an issue) (also from Five Thirty Eight)


1668032466036.png


Still outstanding is a measure from Colorado to legalize psychedelics in the form of magic mushrooms. The ballot is currently leaning positive but by just over 1% with ballots still outstanding.
 

kEiThZ

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I was puzzled at how relatively sanguine many Americans are at having what I consider outright traitors running for elected office.

A big part of propaganda over there focuses on the idea that both parties and all politicians are corrupt. If you believe that's true, voting for a traitor isn't a stretch.
 

ShonTron

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I'd be interested to see an analysis of the role that redistricting played in the outcome, as Michiganders approved a non-partisan redistricting commission in a previous ballot initiative to un-do all the gerrymandering.

***

One particular note about Michigan, it appears that Oakland County, long an obstacle to regional transit in Detroit has voted for a millage (property tax charge) to support same. That could be hugely impactful for many Detroit area residents.




While electing trumper JD Vance is among many unfortunate decisions taken by Ohio voters last night, I would advise against 'for good' as a take.

Michigan was hopelessly gerrymandered and the state spent a generation under Republican control, and saw 3 generations of rot in Detroit.

Today, Michigan returned Democrats across the board; Detroit is seeing a fair bit of new investment, getting a signature waterfront park, the new bridge, and seeing a downtown highway downsized to a large arterial with considerable public realm improvements, all the while, the Detroit burbs just voted for regional transit.

Hell can freeze over.........Ohio may yet return to civil society.

No, I think Ohio is going to be much harder to fix than Michigan. The Republicans there are more entrenched and got so good at gerrymandering, they managed to produce veto-proof majorities in their house. The Religious Right and the Koch Right basically run the government, writing the legislation that ends up on the floor.

Detroit at least has bottomed out and is seeing a minor renaissance (though it has its major flaws as the inequities between the new, largely white Downtown/Midtown Detroit and the big ring surrounding it are huge). Cleveland and Cincinnati don’t dominate the state as much as Metro Detroit does in Michigan.
 

adma

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No, I think Ohio is going to be much harder to fix than Michigan. The Republicans there are more entrenched and got so good at gerrymandering, they managed to produce veto-proof majorities in their house. The Religious Right and the Koch Right basically run the government, writing the legislation that ends up on the floor.

Detroit at least has bottomed out and is seeing a minor renaissance (though it has its major flaws as the inequities between the new, largely white Downtown/Midtown Detroit and the big ring surrounding it are huge). Cleveland and Cincinnati don’t dominate the state as much as Metro Detroit does in Michigan.
Though even Ohio had its bright spots--unexpectedly flipping one seat, unexpectingly holding another that was expected to flip GOP.

Sure, the *state* legislature might be a harder nut to crack; but it's really more that peculiar US tendency to bake in voter inelasticity and dumbed-down punditry (y'know, branding anticipated 6-point margins as "Safe/Likely Republican", which generates disincentive on the opposition's part and apathy on voters' parts)" that makes "Ohio a lost Dem cause" a self-fulfilling prophecy. And never mind Cleveland/Cincy; *Columbus* is where the potential for purple lies.

Further demonstration of the dumbed-down results of dumbed-down politics: even though she was still unlikely to lose, I was halfway expecting Marjorie Taylor Greene to get a "reality check" under-60% share--instead, she got nearly 2/3...
 

adma

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However, I *will* say this re the future potential of "red state Dems"--now that he's in there, watch John Fetterman. With shades of Bernie's '16 (not '20) run, *he* could be the vital pulling-the-heartland impetus the Dems broadly need to put states like Ohio back in play, or in the kind of play they should have been in all along...
 

Jonny5

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Ballot measures in the U.S. of note:
Eyebrow raising, however: (from Five-Thirty-Eight)

View attachment 438302

Also, Louisianans voted Against removing slavery as a punishment in their ballot! (though it appears confusion over the wording may have been an issue) (also from Five Thirty Eight)


View attachment 438304

Still outstanding is a measure from Colorado to legalize psychedelics in the form of magic mushrooms. The ballot is currently leaning positive but by just over 1% with ballots still outstanding.
"the U.S. Federal Constitution expressly prohibits slavery."

There's a whole thing about this, as the constitutional amendment to abolish slavery doesn't actually completely 100% bar slavery, but carves out an exception as criminal punishment, and there's a lot of prisoners in the US who are working essentially full-time hours in prisons for far less than minimum wages. It's expected that there will be constitutional challenges if this clause is removed to either abolish their forced labour in prisons, or to allow it as optional and only at the actual state minimum wage.

A lot of prisons are privately run in the US, and those businesses are very opposed to the measure as it would eat heavily into their profits made off paying prisoners $3/hour or less to work, and they do work on a huge variety of things from being rented out to manufacturing jobs, to picking crops on farms, to working in call centres.

Needless to say, many non-prisoners work at jails in the US; probably several hundred thousand (I saw an estimate there are almost 400,000 jail guards alone), and they get paid what is actually a living wage well above the mean to do a job that has relatively few academic or physical qualifications; high-school or GED equivalent is the norm for $20 to $25/hour, and these prisons are often located in economically depressed areas. It's a very big business and heavily entrenched with lots of support for the status quo. They don't want to lose those jobs. Also remember that prisoners aren't allowed to vote in most of the US, nor anyone on probation for even minor offences so they can't have a say in their "modern slavery".
 
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adma

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Well, if sai "modern slavery" is abolished, they can always repurpose said private prisons as old-fashioned lunatic asylums for QAnoners, if need be...
 

lenaitch

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"the U.S. Federal Constitution expressly prohibits slavery."

There's a whole thing about this, as the constitutional amendment to abolish slavery doesn't actually completely 100% bar slavery, but carves out an exception as criminal punishment, and there's a lot of prisoners in the US who are working essentially full-time hours in prisons for far less than minimum wages. It's expected that there will be constitutional challenges if this clause is removed to either abolish their forced labour in prisons, or to allow it as optional and only at the actual state minimum wage.

A lot of prisons are privately run in the US, and those businesses are very opposed to the measure as it would eat heavily into their profits made off paying prisoners $3/hour or less to work, and they do work on a huge variety of things from being rented out to manufacturing jobs, to picking crops on farms, to working in call centres.

Needless to say, many people work in jails in the US, several hundred thousand (I saw an estimate there are almost 400,000 jail guards alone), and they get paid what is actually a living wage well above the mean to do a job that has relatively few academic or physical qualifications; high-school or GED equivalent is the norm for $20 to $25/hour, and these prisons are often located in economically depressed areas. It's a very big business and heavily entrenched with lots of support for the status quo. They don't want to lose those jobs. Also remember that prisoners aren't allowed to vote in most of the US, nor anyone on probation for even minor offences so they can't have a say in their "modern slavery".
That was my off-the-top-of-my-head/if I had to find a reason as well. A poorly worded proposal or amendment might have caused some to wonder if work gangs, which are a big thing in some states, would be abolished. Preventing county operated jail inmates working on county maintenance projects would have a cost.

Then again, a dark part of me says that there is a non-zero segment of the population in some states that barely tolerates integration.
 

Admiral Beez

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The US Supreme Court gave the conservatives two big wins this year. But be careful what you wish for.

1. They cancels RvW and sent abortion back to the States.
2. They codified the right to bear arms and struck down the most restrictive laws in the country.

The first has ignited Dem voters. The second would have reduced GOP voters who didn’t see their gun rights at risk. Both helped the Dems and killed any red wave.

Sen. Lindsey Graham did the Dems a favour by announcing a bill to cancel abortion rights.


 
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Admiral Beez

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I would get out the popcorn to watch a Trump vs. Pence nomination battle. It would probably completely blow up the Republican Party.
Some big announcement tomorrow. Odds are Trump is announcing his plans to run. Let’s see if Pence does anything now.

 

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