kEiThZ
Superstar
We'll see. Comes down to who the Democratic nominee is. I can't see their progressive nominees defeating Trump though. And that recent New York Times poll shows how tenuous it is for all but Joe Biden in swing states.
|
|
|
Former President Donald Trump's United States of America
- Thread starter W. K. Lis
- Start date
We'll see. Comes down to who the Democratic nominee is. I can't see their progressive nominees defeating Trump though. And that recent New York Times poll shows how tenuous it is for all but Joe Biden in swing states.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Possibly related. Not sure yet.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10694922/iran-plane-crash-ukrainian-airline-shot-down/
Reports of 60-70 Canadians onboard.
There is speculation that this aircraft could be collateral.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10694922/iran-plane-crash-ukrainian-airline-shot-down/
Reports of 60-70 Canadians onboard.
There is speculation that this aircraft could be collateral.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
It wouldn't be the first time the US has shot down an airliner over Iran. In 1988, as today, tensions were high and US forces were surrounding Iranian territory. All it takes is some overzealous local commander on either side.
I still believe many in Iran's leadership are glad to be rid of Soleimani. Perhaps Soleimani's associates in the Quds Force targeted the plane to remind Iran's leaders that the snake is still dangerous without its head.
jje1000
Senior Member
IMO, possibly more likely that the plane got in the way of some activated anti-air defenses, since that video shows the plane going down in a ball of fire.
Sad for all involved.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Indeed. Brand new planes don't usually explode in the air. Yes, they can crash due to pilot input and/or technical issues, but in-air explosions are rare. The fuel tanks are full on takeoff, so ignition of fuel vapour is unlikely. Engine fire is possible, but that doesn't usually cause explosions, though in some cases the engine debris can cause fatal damage elsewhere. If it's deemed an explosive decompression, this landlubber's opinions is it's an accident with the cargo or a bomb. If there are any government VIPs on that plane, I'll be even more suspicious.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Rare. But uncontained engine failures have happened.
Qantas Flight 32 - Wikipedia
As of now, it's looking more like a technical fault than an operational error.
Sure. But this was deep over Iran. Not near the border. With a track heading northwest. It hadn't even fully cleared the Tehran suburbs. This is all very different from IR655 which was heading out over the Gulf, on a course towards a ship whose helicopter had just been engaged by small arms fire. Also, Western identification systems have improved substantially over the last few decades. With a specific emphasis on avoiding fratricide and collateral casualties. They can also be programmed with safe corridors or zones, etc.
All that aside, the aircraft was at ~8000 ft when it lost contact. This is about 3-5 minutes from rotation on the runway. If, and it's a big if, this was shot down, it would be an Iranian air defence system (the airport itself is heavily defended) or possibly some insurgent group using a MANPADs. No American system can detect, classify, launch and hit a target hundreds of kms away, at a relatively lower altitude in a few minutes. Also, I would expect any incoming American missile to compel the Iranians to light up the sky. No reports of that.
Last edited:
kEiThZ
Superstar
Trump appears to be de-escalating. We should all be happy for that.
I am still weary of what happens now that Iran increasingly looks less interested in the JCPOA.
I am still weary of what happens now that Iran increasingly looks less interested in the JCPOA.
salsa
Senior Member
This comedy sketch created over ten years ago is still very relevant today.
jje1000
Senior Member
Interesting:
The news coming out about the victims is devastating- a huge singular loss of human capital for Canada- 2/3rds were professors, graduates, researchers and students that lost their lives here.
Iran plane crash: Tehran won't give Boeing or US black boxes
Iran says it is not clear who will analyse the data recovered from a crash that killed 176 people.
www.bbc.com
The news coming out about the victims is devastating- a huge singular loss of human capital for Canada- 2/3rds were professors, graduates, researchers and students that lost their lives here.
Last edited:
TheKingEast
Senior Member
I really hope this had nothing to do with the US/Iran tensions. Was watching CBC. We lost a lot of young, bright people. A family member of mine worked with one of people that passed. Apparently it was crazy at the office.
salsa
Senior Member
According to multiple news outlets, US officials believe that Iran shot down Flight 752 with an anti-aircraft missile. Possibly by mistake.
"Possibly by mistake" is a pretty important qualifier.
old boy
Senior Member
These " mistakes " can happen when you're in the crosshair of the most powerful military in the world. There's lots of work for pundits doing root cause analysis on this one.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
My guess is some Iranian anti-air missile went accidentally astray. We should know more in the coming weeks. This air space is heavily monitored by satellite and sensors, nothing can fly without being detected by the US.
As you say, mistakes can happen, and I expect many systems were on high alert or even semi-auto launch control, expecting a USAF counterstrike after Iran fired missiles at the US base(s) in Iraq. Some poor artillery commander and his unit have probably already been shot.
gabe
Senior Member
Given Iran's history, how do we know it was accidental?